5/19/04 FCST: NE/IA/KS/MO/MN

[rdale]

That's a snapshot though from over an hour ago - you need to modify for current and/or forecast conditions.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Um that concection is actually looking to be on the front. Front ain't exactly that easy to see or defined. That could prove interesting...hmmmm.... Holding out a bit longer here.

 

[Austin Ivey]

After looking at the following CAPE/CIN analysis it appears to me that CAPE has actually decreased in the target area since the 17Z analysis.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/sfc_dsm_cape.gif

 

[John Gnuechtel]

Blair, eh? I was just through there. Very alarming amount of construction. I'm currently "borrowing" wireless access in the parking lot of a Holiday Inn Express in Fremont. If that Sioux City storm gets better, l think l may head that way.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Yes, I agree that it's getting very tempting to tear north right now.

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/mesoana...sis/s2/sbcp.gif

I think our cape is fine. If those storms continue to strengthen watch for them to drop se if not sse. Man, I can see all the chasers now on I-29....lol.

Scratch that, those are trucking ne, likely elevated at the moment. Sitting back down now......lol

Returns wanting to get more agitated between Lincoln and Columbus. The river IS going to get some folks today, I know it...

 

[Tim Stoecklein]

Well, just stopped for gas on the western fringes of Omaha. It's not looking too promising, but the moisture is definitely here. The dog is dying, lol. If we don't see anything exciting start to happen by the time we get to Lincoln, we will continue onto my "home" in Ness. I think I passed Ben on I80, weird antenna in the back?

Anyway, the action may be north if there's no clearing in this area. If anyone is tooling down 80 between Kearney and Omaha, give a shout on 146.55 or .52. I'll be listening.

Tim

 

[Jared Mysko]

You may find that you could end up further north than you ever expected! There is some action firing up along the SK/MAN/ND/MN borders.

"Funnel Cloud Watch" has been issued on the Canadian side of the border. Maybe this will turn out to be a busy day all over the northern plains. It will have to get juicier for me to fill up my gas tank though. Maybe I will think about it after a snack.

Jared

 

[Jeff Miller]

Golfball sized hail reported in Merrill, IA with a severe-warned storm.

We need a now thread

 

[John Sickels]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
246 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL IOWA
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ALGONA TO BOONE TO LAMONI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...INCLUDING DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...VERY
LARGE HAIL... AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL ERUPT BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM IN WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST IOWA...SPREADING EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA
BETWEEN 7 PM AND 11 PM. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL IOWA.

 

[Austin Ivey]

I know the day isn't over yet in IA/NE area but I just heard from my crew who were caravaning with Wurman's team and they just decided to scrub the SW IA area and move back to Omaha--possibly to spend the night again.

Check out this nose of very warm 700mb air thats moving over the target area:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis...is/s2/700mb.gif