5/19/04 FCST: NE/IA/KS/MO/MN

guest

Looking like a high CAPE day is setting up over the Missouri River Valley. Could be big time depending on how the dynamical support sets up. Will be crucial to monitor. Areas of particular interest: Omaha and surrounding region.

Chris
 
The current day 3 (as of Monday) outlook is mentioning a possible active severe weather day on Wed. with long lived supercells with tornados,etc. Right now the area of interest is se Neb./ne Ks/ Nw Mo/sw Ia area:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Hope they clarify it a little more in Tuesdays outlooks since it influences travel plans for me if a chase is in the making- one days travel to that area for me.
 
Wednesday's setup certainly looks interesting across eastern Nebraska. The stationary front is forecast to remain so, but SBCAPEs will build from 2500-3000 J/kg along the eastern NE/KS border at 18Z to 4000+ over KOMA at 0Z. Although the afternoon looks fairly capped, the highest CAPE areas will be free of cap by 0Z. However, the helicity is not incredibly impressive, and looks to be the best east of the Missouri River. The best helicity is to be found in eastern Iowa, but given the low cape and strong cap, no significant convection is expected there. Once again, a VERY dry H5 and surface Tds around 75 (hope the A/C works) will combine to make LIs around -8 in the target area. If the early afternoon cap helps keep things from getting too messy, this could be a very good setup.


Ben
 
Good gracious - with CAPE near 6000 (!) I wouldn't be surprised if the boundary layer simply explodes upward and creates a colossal vacuum. :)

Tomorrow remains very interesting ... I may have to take the afternoon off for a jaunt to the great cornbelt.

Take a look at those other OAX parameters:

SWEAT: 574.6
LCL: 1101m
LFC: 1131m
LI: -8

Storm speeds around 27 kts ...
 
Well, I will be leaving MI about 4am headed west. The plan was to make it to Ness City by tomorrow night and then onto the in-laws on Thurs, but I've informed my wife that we may be making an extended stop in IA or NE. We will see how it progresses, but it's looking quite promising at this point.
 
I can't wait to see tomorrow morning's OAX SKEW-T's. The ETA 0z sounding Mike H. linked has all of the "Loaded Gun" characteristics. I think the Hwy 77 or 75 corridors in Nebraska (basically from Fremont north) are good places to start your late afternoons.

I'm starting to get that bad feeling that some unsuspecting little town in our area could have a very bad Wednesday. To take a line from the National Hurricane Center earlier today......."It's been too long."

Of course, we've seen hellacious conditions in the past this year, only to have one parameter in the equation peter out on us, and end up with marginal to bust-type days. Tonight and tommorow morning will tell this story.

Re-fuel the vehicles.....time for another ride.
 
WOW, tomorrow looks quite impressive right now.

The following ETA progs give me goosebumps :

A 2M DP of 75 with an LI of ~-8 in SW Iowa valid at 00z. Even an incredible high 19.7C 850mb dew in the same area. Also SBCAPE bullseye of ~5000 in the same area. Combine this with frontal dynamics and tomorrow could be quite a show! We'll see if the 0z models will continue to paint this type of picture tonight.
 
Don't let the MO river get you tomorrow. Think well ahead of yourself if you are in eastern NE. From n-s you can cross at Yankton, Vermillion(I think..didn't show it onthe map I had, but when up there on the NE side it had a road sign to Vermillion going north)Sioux City, Decatur(there is a toll for this bridge .75 I think) Blair(stay away from Blair), Omaha, Plattsmouth(another toll bridge), Nebraska City, Falls City(I might of missed one). It's actually a pain in the butt when you find yourself between these options with a good looking storm to your due west that you HAVE to leave for a bit. GPS and farm roads won't get you across the river. Good luck to anyone up here, unless you are IN Blair. Sort of hope it sets up in se SD north of the MO River.

MIke
 
The only one I see you missed was Brownville - near Auburn and Rock Port, MO. Just remember that there are mostly tolls from Belleview north and no tolls from there south (although the Rulo bridge is so scary, they should pay YOU to take it) :)
 
I actually stuck myself in Walnut, Iowa (just east of Omaha) as a pre-emptive strike for that reason. I'm overdue for a risk blowing up in my face, but I'd rather be too far east than west for this one.
 
Third time the charm? Well, after a bust in Kansas yesterday and being laughed at by the DCVZ today, I am going to try my luck with Iowa. I'm currently at home, going to take a shower and cash a surprise check that was awaiting me when I arrived then shoot up I-76 til I crash out (sleep, not literally bang). Tomorrow, I'll get up early to finish the trip, likely initially targeting the Lincoln area, then moving north and east from there. Figure I can get halfway tonight, then cover the rest tomorrow (500 miles to Lincoln from here) so at 70mph, I'm hoping to nuke out about 250 tonight and 250 tomorrow and go from there.

Once I get moving tomorrow, I'll hit a WiFi spot on I-80 or a library and make some final decisions. Going to be a marathon run tonight and tomorrow, so I'll see everyone tomorrow.
 
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