5/19/04 FCST: NE/IA/KS/MO/MN

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Wednesday = O'Neill Nebraska. 50knts west at 500mb atop not great low level flow but extreme instability. Watch out for those se moving sups wanting to back build and turn more south. Would be nice to get a few to turn more se. Option 2 could be western IA on nose of llj and any possible outflow boundaries and likely in better T/TD spreads. Kind of torn between the two at this time. Figure it out tomorrow. Good luck to all.

Mike
 
See what you are saying, Mike. I gotta go with the E NE/W IA target now with the better LLJ, 40 knot westerlies and divergence at 500mb and phenominal CAPES - for now. Nothing like a nice backyard chase.

Tim
 
This will be brief; as I must pack, eat dinner, do homework, attempt to get out of my morning shift at WWMT (for an EXTRA early KZO departure) and pick up my pending chase partners Chris Novy and Steve Jascourt tommarow morning.

I love the 0Z ETA runs; will not rehash it here, just look for yourself. Regardless of the veriying erray of factors, Ive been extreamly positive about Wednesday since last Friday/Saturday... and I will indeed be chasing (pulling a one day marathon from KZO to NE back to KZO then following work at 5:30am ET and class... oh yes, then work again for the midday shift... will pack, nap, and depart for Norman overnight Thursday... chase Friday; sleep in Norman; then will be starting Tempest Tours on Saturday)..... yes, I am crazy and that was a long run on sentence!

One negative; the cap -- but I feel there will be enough forcing to overcome this.

Target area/region: Columbus, Nebraska

Good luck to all those whom venture out/and or are already out!

..Blake..

Blake W. Naftel - KC8VPG
[email protected]
www.mammatus.com
 
I see a dry punch working into north central Kansas coincident with high instabilites and favorable low level shear. I think dewpoints will pool east and northeast of this feature (and I can tell you from ICT tonight--there are plenty of dews to pool).

I'm looking from Salina up to Hastings. Hope the surface low actually makes an appearance unlike this afternoon when our winds relaxed and a mostly-eroded cap barely escaped without breaking.

I'll make for Concordia and check data again.

Good luck everybody.
 
The early afternoon appears shutoff by a fairly strong cap (exception: there is a narrow sliver of break along the Missouri River at 18Z), but by 0Z Eta forecasts the cap to be mostly gone over eastern Nebraska and the western two-thirds of Iowa. With surface-based CAPEs in excess of 5000 J/kg over parts of Nebraska, the entire eastern third of the state, as well as most of Iowa, look to be in good shape for a spectacular show. With LIs between -7 and -9, combined with the cold front moving through Nebraska, should provide ample incentive for upward motion. The chief concern again will be helicity values. Ahead of the front, there is good veering, but the weak speeds at 500 and 250mb are just a tiny bit troublesome. On the other hand, that means the storms won't be moving very fast.


Ben
 
I'll be leaving cedar rapids about 9am, probably heading towards the omaha area initially. If anyone is in the area, and wouldnt mind having a newbie tag along for some learing experience, that would be sweet. I'll check this forum on WiFi again once I arrive in Omaha, possibly before that. Or you can reach me at (319) 329 0276. I'll be driving a red F-150 with a big directional grid antenna sticking up in the bed, and some lights if anyone happens to see me. Hopefully my first out of state chase won't be too big of a bust.
-Ben
 
My target this morning is Fremont, NE. Good highways in all directions between US77 & US30, and I believe it will be east of initiation. After looking at some data this morning, one word comes to mind......Explosive. Let's hope in one way that today IS the day for us, and NOT the day for some unsuspecting little town.
 
Well, after about six hours of driving I am sitting in Iowa City waiting for McDonalds to start serving lunch, lol. Can't eat breakfast at this time when you've been up for 7 hours.

We are headed west anyway, and it looks like we'll be going right through the bullseye (unless it's O'neill, lol).

Data is going to be slim as I head west for me, so if anyone wants to let me know of a more precise target, feel free to e-mail me. I can get to that from my phone, lol.

The ingredients are there, but is it going to cook up into something tasty? I'll eat anything :lol:

[email protected]

Tim
 
Hey from Grand Island! :)

After looking over data and talking with a couple other chasers, I am going to head to Lincoln, NE for the time being. This puts me on the southern fringe of SPC's hatched tornado probs and puts me in an area of clearing. This also gives me a chance to move north/south quickly.

Clouds and drizzle (AKA C-R-A-P) are blanketing the area right now, but after looking at the VIS, I see a pocket of clearing starting to erode the cloud layer over NE Kansas/N Missouri. I'm going to head to Lincoln hoping that clearing makes it in before lunch and starts to warm things. A lot of clouds and C-R-A-P are covering areas in the higher risk place, so I'll remain on the southern end til I see/hear something that tells me otherwise. Southwestern Iowa is also getting in on the action (in terms of clearing), so I really feel good about hanging along the I-80 cooridor for the time being.

Be safe out there, gang.. this looks like it has the potential to be a huge day across the area. With strong tornadoes possible, we're going to have to be on our toes. Be safe all!
 
I think I'm going to go with the ruc as much as possible today...for a starting target anyway, which lucky for me is home. I don't trust my western thoughts anymore. Ruc blowing off convection over me(Omaha area) by 21z, then going bonkers with the area by 0z. This is on the nose of the extreme instability. Sfc winds on the ruc do not look to be very helpful today. Has a weak warmfront stretching se from Omaha at 21-0z. That is almost stretching it though. Best mid-level winds/cooling will be to the north so I think this north end will be a wiser first choice for a starting point. Unless too much goes up here...guessing game. I do know I've always been scared to miss the events in my backyard..and I mean...backyard. Ruc wants the best convergence right on the river in eastern NE.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/disp...&hours=hr06hr09

Northern KS and areas south of Lincoln already starting to clear out. One thing is certain....it's MOIST out....yeesh. ~80/70 in ne KS now, and it's not even noon. Ruc also wants to keep the areas west more capped. Area of very strong cape already over ne KS nosing north.
 
The mid-level temperatures on upstream soundings this morning are very warm, and the models agree that the warm air aloft will be overspreading much of NE and western IA today. Combine that with the continued low clouds over the same area, and I think there is a reasonable chance of another cap bust today, at least over the NE/IA part of the risk area. Good luck to anyone up there.
 
I think Kevin's analyis is why the SPC downgraded to just a SLIGHT risk. Though there is some clearing in SW IA, the low clouds continue to fill in along the NE/KS border further limiting destabilzation in these areas. Good luck to all!
 
The cap has certainly changed things ... watch out for after dark chases in Iowa, that's all I know ... I had taken the afternoon off to head up to OAX, but now I think I'm going to hang until at least 3:00 and see how it's looking ... can be in Nebraska in an hour, so I may hold out to see if there's something pop up closer to home, even though the RUC is not making me overly hopeful for that scenario - precip is breaking out too far north for a day trip for me - - -
 
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