We're getting some decent helicity and CAPE up here in Iowa (not Ames, but more to the SW part of the state). GFS is pushing some nice-looking SE winds, and the upper-level winds at least don't look as bad as they did before. KDMX is pushing 60% or so on supercell potential, but with ML LCLs in the 600's I'm not quite sure how to interpret that with my newbie skills. I'm sure the ML LCLs will be higher to the SW part of Iowa, off-model runs are guessing around 800m for the area.
Earl's page maze is showing some decent shear and storm-relatives for SW Iowa now, and at 21Z tomorrow the dews are looking to be in the upper 50's ... with temps in the lower 60's.
-Winds are good until the aforementioned somewhat weak (but as per the model progression, increasing) upper-levels.
-Moisture better get here. With the strong southerly push illustrated by Mike H above it just might happen.
-SB CAPE and 0-1km CAPE look great.
-Getting some shear and helicity for that area.
-Winds look to back a bit more for SW Iowa, at least at the surface.
-Cap projected to erode a bit better than the southern target.
-Actually, it's NW Missouri that looks the best to me right now, but I don't want to chase there in the 15th century, where I can't pick up any signals, but I will if I have to.
-Looking for initiation up here, around 5 PM or so.
I put the likelihood at something happening for us far-northerners at a 1 in 3 shot.
As far as the southern target goes, it's been said earlier in the thread, and it's something I've said way too much this year: either there's going to be nothing or there's going to be one or two very destructive supercells.
It all depends on the moisture. Blow, winds, blow.