Warren Faidley
Supporter
SPC is expanding current tornado watch in KS, southwestward into NW Texas panhandle and portions of OK.
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Wesley Luginbyhl
EF4
The RUC's generous 4000+ CAPE forecasted in NW OK this evening is in part because it thinks there are 70 degree dew points out there currently. That would be nice, but its not the case.
Mike Peregrine
EF5
Our target today is anywhere we can find a storm that we can keep up with. Most likely northern OK somewhere along the panhandle, or probably more like 60-70 miles west of predicted initiation ... just to give the fast moving storms time to brew and start rotating before they get to us. It's hard to know what to believe from the models, so I think I'll make my own model and just throw a dart on the map. RUC and WRF disagree on instability, so we're just going to go see what happens. Would be really nice if there ends up being more than a wave or two of convection coming through to choose from. Crazy helicities around, looks like. The airmass over Woodward sure is good and juicy too. We can't help but notice the possibilities around home today too. It's bound to break loose around KC again while we're chasing down here. We've decided we're going to stick it out till sunset no matter what ... no going home until then. If things work for us today, great ... if not, it's just good to be outside. Have fun ...
Tim Marshall
EF2
Model CAPE difference
Wesley wrote: The RUC's generous 4000+ CAPE forecasted in NW OK this evening is in part because it thinks there are 70 degree dew points out there currently. That would be nice, but its not the case. REPLY: AGREE! The NAM only shows 2000-2500 j/kg which is more realistic. This difference points out that models are only guesses. Thanks Wesley.
Wesley wrote: The RUC's generous 4000+ CAPE forecasted in NW OK this evening is in part because it thinks there are 70 degree dew points out there currently. That would be nice, but its not the case. REPLY: AGREE! The NAM only shows 2000-2500 j/kg which is more realistic. This difference points out that models are only guesses. Thanks Wesley.
Mark Farnik
EF5
High Risk Upgrade at 1630Z Outlook
The SPC just issued a special MD saying will be upgrading all of western OK and a portion of south central KS to High Risk at the 1630 Outlook. The MD discussion is saying that long tracked supercells with strong tornadoes are likely later this afternoon
It will be very interesting to see whether this verifies or not... if we can get sufficient clearing ahead of the dryline and actually realize the 3000- 4500 j/kg of CAPE shown by the RUC, western OK and southern KS could be in for a very, very long afternoon and evening...
The SPC just issued a special MD saying will be upgrading all of western OK and a portion of south central KS to High Risk at the 1630 Outlook. The MD discussion is saying that long tracked supercells with strong tornadoes are likely later this afternoon
It will be very interesting to see whether this verifies or not... if we can get sufficient clearing ahead of the dryline and actually realize the 3000- 4500 j/kg of CAPE shown by the RUC, western OK and southern KS could be in for a very, very long afternoon and evening...
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Jason Haller
EF2
just replaced the tornado watch with a PDS tornado watch. for all of the mod risk area. NICE!!
Warren Faidley
Supporter
I'm somewhat surprised there would be a high risk, given the current behavior of cells. I'm holding back near the dry line for now, avoiding the linear mess right now. I am **assuming** this pattern, similar to others in the past, will present better storm opportunities later this afternoon/evening.
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John Hudson
EF4
My target area will be just south of Pratt, KS. It is just a little farther east of the dryline than I'd like, but 00Z models showing low LCL's of 155 meters should allow storms firing on the north end of the dryline to become rooted in the boundary layer.
The RUC's 00Z CAPE is definitely over done at 4500j/kg, but I really like the look of the hodographs for Pratt, ATTM. We'll likely be looking at a late evening/after dark wedgefest, I believe, with the 50 kt LLJ really pumping in the juice later.
Let the games begin.
John
VE4 JTH
The RUC's 00Z CAPE is definitely over done at 4500j/kg, but I really like the look of the hodographs for Pratt, ATTM. We'll likely be looking at a late evening/after dark wedgefest, I believe, with the 50 kt LLJ really pumping in the juice later.
Let the games begin.
John
VE4 JTH
Tim Vasquez
EF5
- Joined
- Dec 4, 2003
- Messages
- 3,411
Here's one surface mesoanalysis, though almost an hour old.
A key area to watch right now is the area between Memphis and Turkey TX -- that area where I have "Cu" marked. I would want to be hanging out in Shamrock right about now. Of course there's also the question of whether/when the Canadian storms will manage to become surface based, and what kind of boundary interactions we might have later on from this late morning stuff (though I guess that would be mostly NW OK/S KS).
It's still quite early in the day.
Tim
A key area to watch right now is the area between Memphis and Turkey TX -- that area where I have "Cu" marked. I would want to be hanging out in Shamrock right about now. Of course there's also the question of whether/when the Canadian storms will manage to become surface based, and what kind of boundary interactions we might have later on from this late morning stuff (though I guess that would be mostly NW OK/S KS).
It's still quite early in the day.
Tim
Jason Boggs
I agree Tim. I think the better play right now may very well be the SE TX Panhandle. Better moisture along with backed winds and a "cleaner" environment may be the ticket. I'm in Lefors at my parents right now, but I'm about to head to Wellington, TX.
