4/21/05 TALK: KS/MO

Already a Tstm Warning for that cell north of Manhatten... stay on it for those who are close !!
 
That lone cell has pretty much made it into southern Nemeha county there in NE Kansas... will be heading towards Falls City, NE shortly. Still a "loner" and looks nice on radar. Still SVR T-STM warned. Hope that helps.
 
I wonder if the cell going up near Manhattan, KS will be the storm of the day?
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That may be the one. It certainly has the isolation and with its rain shadow blowing off to the east it’s moving into cleaner air. The three cells in sc NE are moving into their rain shadows and will be ingesting cooler air. I don’t like any of the storms north of I-80.
 
Looks to me like the best tornado chances in NE will stay south of a line from just east of GRI to AFK. Sufficient clearing south of that really. Best environment by far for the next few hours is that of ne KS, in particular with the cell now in ne Pottawatomie county. It's been developing a series of new cells on the right flank, with a mean southern edge ne heading toward Wetmore-> Willis. Despite not having much orgainzation yet, still looks to have promise. Convection now also firing on the west side of the Tulsa metro - which could certainly attain supercell characteristics rather quickly.

Glen
 
lawrence

Warm, humid, and windy in Lawrence. The supercell to the NW is clearly visible on the horizon and is textbook severe in appearance. To the west and SW there are towers trying to go up.
 
Unfortunately, that little "blip" over Tulsa just went "blah" on radar. Who knows, it could recycle.

The NE Kansas cell now is appearing to have a small "hook" echo, but there are other cells firing nearby. If that storms cranks a little more, that one could be your tornado producer.

Topeka NWS still has it T-stm warned.

Whoa boy... !!! appears to be visible rotation on the velocity radar now... wouldn't be surprised at all to see that cell go Tornado warned any time. Good in/out couplet on Weathertap's velocity radar.

Go baby Go !!!
 
Cell of interest now crossing into Nemaha County, starting to show weak rotation - and a mesocyclone no detected by the algorithms. Potential problem is new convection no developing to the south which may cause problems for this cell - but for the next hour it should be ok - and that may be enough time for it to produce. Wish I were there.

New MCD just issued concerning replacement / sotheastward expansion of T box.

Glen
 
tor

Agreed. I was just getting on here to post about the hook echo on the storm north of Topeka!

Area bounded by an area from Topeka to Lawrence to Emporia to Kansas City really needs to be under a tornado watch in my opinion. I base this on looking outside! :)
 
TORNADO WARNING NOW JUST ISSUED FOR NEMAHA CO. !!!
BE CAREFUL

6 miles SW of Corning, moving NE at 25.
 
Starting to see some low lvl rotation in the ne KS storm.

New TS Warning for Saline Co. NE. I believe those to cells will merge here shortly. Maybe that will give them the boost they need, as they haven’t appeared to grow much recently.

EDIT:15:15z There’s the tor warning we’ve been waiting for
 
lawrence

For what it is worth, it feels unstable and "tornadoey" outside in Lawrence right now. Warm and increasingly oppressive. Lots of towers trying to go up to the west and south.
 
New storm going up just east of Beatrice, NE - bears watching to see if it mimics the NE KS storm. The left mover approaching the border could complicate things, however.

I didn't realize OAX issued Mesoscale Updates/Discussions (like Tulsa). Cool.

EDIT: By the way, nice MCV showing up on radar in SE IA.
 
Still a very good velocity signature (rotation) on the Nemaha County, KS cell and somewhat of a hook trying to form on the cell northwest of Beatrice, NE. I'll keep scanning the radars.

All be safe!
 
...TORNADO WATCH 175 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED EARLY TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF NERN KS/NWRN MO...

BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY...AND EQUALLY IMPORTANT INCREASING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...IS OCCURRING ACROSS NERN KS INTO NWRN MO ALONG SLOWLY
RETREATING WARM FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS WELL DEFINED AND CURRENTLY
IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA.
WITH TIME CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SEWD INTO THIS REGION AS LARGE
SCALE FORCING SPREADS INTO THE MO VALLEY. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH TIME AS INCREASING SHEAR VENTS MATURING
UPDRAFTS. TORNADO WATCH WILL BE REPLACED EARLY.
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Looks like STJ will now be in the bullseye. Will probably head there and wait...will probably wait for a little bit, to make my forecast more certain.
 
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