4/21/05 TALK: KS/MO

Hmm... Don't really know what to make of the situation just in terms of the portrayal by local NWSFOs and SPC. The OUN HWO from this morning only says a slight risk across Oklahoma, and OUN and ICT sound VERY pessimistic about the situation (relative to a tornadic-supercells-possible outlook). I see a PSWO was transmitted, but I think someone sent this by mistake, since it's rather incoherent, and actually looks to be a combo of a real SPC PSWO and an OUN HWO.
 
I see a PSWO was transmitted, but I think someone sent this by mistake, since it's rather incoherent, and actually looks to be a combo of a real SPC PSWO and an OUN HWO.
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I don't think it is a mistake...but it seems rather odd that they issued it for large hail during a moderate risk. :? They must be using their experimental hail model again... :p

Tulsa's WFO doesn't seem quite as pessimistic:

VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR...WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S...WILL LIE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL MAKE FOR VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING OVER 3000 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF -8. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT...SETTING THE TABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. TORNADOES WILL CERTAINLY BE A POSSIBILITY.
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Gabe
 
SPC has a public severe weather outlook on their day one convective outlook page, an outbreak (high risk :D (crossing my fingers)??), they say?

I have looked at the new RUC model data and it has the low pressure back up in Nebraska, but I will wait and see what my beloved NAM model says about the low pressure, whether or not it will continue on a path along US Highway 50. I am still targetting Emporia, Kansas, but may drop further south to Parsons and Chanute if conditions deem necessary.

EDIT: I will now target Coffeyville. Best instability exists (according to 12Z RUC) in the southeastern portions of Kansas, and I believe Coffeyville could reap in the benefits, this time.
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Ben,

Send this stuff Northwest. SE KS is still cleaning up from 2003 and there's plenty of open flinthills for tornadoes to play in where they can't do any damage! :lol:


JH
 
I think I'll sit tight in Lawrence and see what comes within striking distance today. Class prevents an early departure, and I honestly think that aside from being a bit too far NE, this isn't a bad place to be.
 
Well no one has dared to say it yet, so I'll be the first. Today reminds me of a certain day in 2003. The setup and dynamics are unique and perhaps not looking as strong as 5/4/03 did at this time in the morning ... but the orientation of the risk area, the forecast language, the PWO statement ... it just can't help but remind me at this point. I can't imagine by the end of the day we'll be talking about another May 4th ... but at the same time I can't help but feel a bit of the same energy this morning as I remember feeling on that Sunday morning two years ago. I worry about Missouri a bit ... if we end up with another line of tornadic supes, anytime something like that rolls through Missouri there are significant losses in property and life ... in Kansas the human tolls are minimized ... but once these things cross the rivers they enter into a much more population dense area, so a bit of concern always crosses my mind. Be sure to call in your reports today ...
 
Well, looks like they removed the half-written PSWO from the SPC website. TSA has downgraded their tornado risk from Elevated to Limited... I think we'll see the 15% moved back up north away from eastern OK. I sitll think there's a tornado risk enough to chase, but I'm not as optimistic as before given the VERY veered surface winds in northcentral and moving into northeastern OK. I'm heading out with Gabe Garfield and some others in a few hours on I40 towards Okemah probably. My northeastern OK target seems to be turning sour given the SW or WSW winds in northcentral OK and strong pressure rises behind the wind shift (well, everywhere in OK, but particularly behind the wind shift). I can't imagine that we won't see surface pressure falls given the mid-level low/trough, but the surface pressures in OK are rising pretty quickly, so ....
 
Well no one has dared to say it yet, so I'll be the first. Today reminds me of a certain day in 2003. The setup and dynamics are unique and perhaps not looking as strong as 5/4/03 did at this time in the morning ... but the orientation of the risk area, the forecast language, the PWO statement ... it just can't help but remind me at this point. I can't imagine by the end of the day we'll be talking about another May 4th ... but at the same time I can't help but feel a bit of the same energy this morning as I remember feeling on that Sunday morning two years ago. I worry about Missouri a bit ... if we end up with another line of tornadic supes, anytime something like that rolls through Missouri there are significant losses in property and life ... in Kansas the human tolls are minimized ... but once these things cross the rivers they enter into a much more population dense area, so a bit of concern always crosses my mind. Be sure to call in your reports today ...
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I was thinking the same thing....just didnt want to post it....figured someone would laugh at me... Some strong daytime heating, and it could almost be a repeat. I hope not, but it could. I plan on heading down there, I hope the storms just dont decide to plant one in Metro KC, I am beginning to worry for the people there.
 
meso

Well, well, we have a mesoscale discussion out now, for just north of my location in reference to need for a tornado watch.

Just visually here in Lawrence, it does not look impressive right now. Lots of low clouds. Surface level wind from the SW. But we will see.
 
I am monitoring from Ottawa, Kansas at the moment. I will not head more south than I have previous mentioned. I may head west to my original target of Emporia, Kansas to wait for initiation. There is some good clearing out here in Ottawa, much better than Lawrence.

Clearing is mainly occuring to my west and to the south, while to the north remains under a blanket of clouds. It is very soupy out here in southern Ottawa near Interstate 35.
 
Depending on how things begin to evolve my current idea is to sit tight and, if things improve, head out for the Falls City area around 12:30 - 1:00.

I don't know.
 
winds

Ben, what are the winds like in Ottawa? Very erratic at the surface here in south Lawrence...keeps shifting from SE to S to SW then back again.
 
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