4/21/05 TALK: KS/MO

I'll light this candle...

Looks like NWS Topeka is suggesting severe weather East of US 77 from Marysville to Herington, so I'm torn between staying in the Topeka area after work or maybe heading toward Emporia and flanking anything that appears to be headed toward my usual territory (MO/LY/OS/WB counties).

The Topeka office has been a little jumpy this year, even advising spotter classes they're expecting another active year. We'll see where this goes.


JH
 
Im targeting an area from top to ottawa unless the ruc warrants a change tomorrow. Im wondering what the low and associated triple point will do and whether it will move south as the gfs suggests. Should be an intersting day to say the least.
 
I will target the Emporia, Kansas area, I will leave Kansas City by 11AM and head to Emporia which should be just to the north and the east of the upper level low at 18Z. I expect some storms to fire from an area to the east of a Cottonwood Falls/Junction City/El Dorado line and move to the northeast. Emporia gives easy access to Interstate 35 to follow the upper level low as it moves north and east to Kansas City by 0Z.
 
I'm personally playing the warm front. Mostly because its the closest to my home location, and I dont have time to trek out to Kansas. Things do look decent around western Illinois, along the front. Instability could be better, but that could change tomorrow as well. Surface winds are finally looking good, been a while since we could encourage mother nature to give it to us from the southeast, heh. South of the front, temps will probably be in the low 70s, with low 60s dew points. Definetly the best set up we've seen this year.

Doesnt look incredible...but, I've got a day to kill.
 
Just a reminder... Ya'll can post these types of things in the FCST threads if you want. I supposed you don't need to, but you're certainly welcome to contribute to the FCST threads. :)

I'm probablygoing to leave late-morning ... Head east on I40 towards Okemah probably. More info in FCST thread.
 
I'm looking to save money and energy, so I'll probably play the warm front / ahead of the low in SE NE. However, I actually think the dryline is the better target tomorrow: better clearing, better dynamics, more isolated storms (maybe). I have a feeling overnight and morning convection is going to make a mess of things in NE.

But, I can't really legitimize driving to KS if the low is making a beeline for my house.

Difficult forecast...lot that can go wrong. Given what happened today, the models may very well be out to lunch (to be honest, I spent just as much time trying to extrapolate from the RUC this evening as I did looking at the NAM...the latter has been pretty screwy as of late).
 
Doesnt look incredible...but, I've got a day to kill.

LOL that, and the latest models indicate that your friends to the north (in MI) could be dealing with significant snow accumulations by Saturday/Sunday! :shock: ... But I digress...
 
SPC has MDT issued for a wide-swath of the plains. Still a lot of uncertainties though, I wouldn't be suprised, if there's a remnant outflow boundary and/or the wave is stronger than advertised, to maybe see that upped in some places tommorow, but if there's a deck of stratus up until noon over the mdt area, all bets are off.

My target would be on I-40 somewhere with a great North South Option. But right now, with money running low, I'm taking a wait and see attitude. For one, I'm cursed for April, and me chasing this month means certain doom for any setup or it means I will be very close to seeing a tornado, but due to weird or wild circumstances, I won't, as what happened today. :oops: I still have enough to make another run tommorow, but I'm going to have to be certain that I will have a great shot at seeing a nader to go tommorow, I've seen convection the last two days of all shapes and sizes or none at all ( :lol: ), so all that's left out of this system for me is for me to break my April woes with a nice looking tube beside a mountain in E. Ok. Otherwise, I got some yard work to do :?
 
Well I have to agree with Jeff that the Talk thread is looking suspiciously like a disguised FCST thread ... hehe. You guys have great forecast ideas in here - don't be afraid to post them in the other thread.

Tomorrow (or I guess I should say later today) should be interesting. Will be the first MDT I've chased this year ... and it's nice that things are looking close to the home territory. Thunder is rumbling outside my window as I write this, and a line of storms that were forecast to produce weak rainfall on the MO/NE/IA line just to my north have turned into massive rain-makers tonight ... flash flood warnings have now been issued as those cells have been sitting over the same counties churning out torrential downpours for hours now. So this makes me wonder about how all this ongoing convection will affect things by morning on the north side of the forecast area.

Making a preliminary judgment based on SPC forecast language (not my own forecast, mind you), it sounds to me right now like the southern half of the MDT has the best potential for torns at this point, while the northern half, closer to the WF and SFC low, will be stretching to produce. Sounds like Ben's target of Emporia might be a good place to start tomorrow ... but I may end up hanging closer to the metro to see what, if anything, pops up around this neck of the woods. Hopefully by this time tomorrow night we'll all be talking about what amazing things we saw ... right now it's all up in the air, as usual. Have fun and be safe -
 
I also think I may try to chase tomorrow desite having the flu since saturday night. I missed a great supercell in what would have been my target area today near Chitaque Texas and I think missing the supercell made me feel worse than the flu. Unless i feel like grade A crap tomorrow I am going to try to chase the trees of Eastern OK. Hopefully at worst we will see initiation along I-35 but I may also head towards I-40 heading out of Wichita Falls by late Morning. Il try to sit along I-40 and be able to keep my North South options open or if things decide to pop along I-35 even better. I have a bad feeling there will be a great supercell along the crappy roads in and around Lake Eufalua area or however ya spell it.
Will definately have to check SAT nd other outlooks about 9am. As for now im off to bed.
Good luck to everyone tomorrow and I look forward to seeing some awesome pics from you guys......BTW where is Hollingshead lately......Id expect to see his magic being performed by now all over the boards..........I need some new wallpaper! lol
 
If the outlook stays the same, I will be heading out to Lawrence by 12 or 1 PM to catch anything that may develop in that neck of the woods. I hope the stratus deck clears out enough by then so everything has a chance to destabilize. The thunderstorm activity that's occurring right now over S Neb, and N KS is expected to move into the KC area between 4-7 AM, which kind of concerns me a little bit. Hopefully the storms are fast moving and clear the area so the sun can come out and warm things up. If the clouds linger around, it will likely inhibit any severe weather potential for the area. Another factor to consider is the outflow boundaries that would be left behind by the current thunderstorms. Those boundaries may possibly enhance the severe threat later today.
 
For any that end up in southeast Kansas beware of construction at the east bound hwy 166 and hwy 75 interchange. They were resurfacing around there wednesday and waits can be over 20 minutes.
 
Thanks for the heads up David. Today, I plan to chase along with Dick McGowan. Our plans are to initially head out to the Ottawa/Lawrence area around 2:00pm to position west of the metro area. From there, we may very well find ourselves heading S on US 59 / 169. At the moment, my personal target is Coffeyville, but given the wide north/south extent of the risk area, will have to remain flexible.
 
SPC has a public severe weather outlook on their day one convective outlook page, an outbreak (high risk :D (crossing my fingers)??), they say?

I have looked at the new RUC model data and it has the low pressure back up in Nebraska, but I will wait and see what my beloved NAM model says about the low pressure, whether or not it will continue on a path along US Highway 50. I am still targetting Emporia, Kansas, but may drop further south to Parsons and Chanute if conditions deem necessary.

EDIT: I will now target Coffeyville. Best instability exists (according to 12Z RUC) in the southeastern portions of Kansas, and I believe Coffeyville could reap in the benefits, this time.
 
If anyone in Central Iowa wants to chase with me today, I will be leaving from Grinnell, IA between 11AM and Noon and passing through Des Moines on 1-80, then heading down to a target south of Kansas City. Just PM me or email me if you want to chase and we will try to set something up on the fly.
-Alex
 
Hmm... Don't really know what to make of the situation just in terms of the portrayal by local NWSFOs and SPC. The OUN HWO from this morning only says a slight risk across Oklahoma, and OUN and ICT sound VERY pessimistic about the situation (relative to a tornadic-supercells-possible outlook). I see a PSWO was transmitted, but I think someone sent this by mistake, since it's rather incoherent, and actually looks to be a combo of a real SPC PSWO and an OUN HWO.
 
I see a PSWO was transmitted, but I think someone sent this by mistake, since it's rather incoherent, and actually looks to be a combo of a real SPC PSWO and an OUN HWO.

I don't think it is a mistake...but it seems rather odd that they issued it for large hail during a moderate risk. :? They must be using their experimental hail model again... :p

Tulsa's WFO doesn't seem quite as pessimistic:

VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR...WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S...WILL LIE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL MAKE FOR VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING OVER 3000 J/KG AND A LIFTED INDEX OF -8. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT...SETTING THE TABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. TORNADOES WILL CERTAINLY BE A POSSIBILITY.

Gabe
 
Anybody else going to be chasing southeast Nebraska and possibly northeast Kansas, or am I going to be the lone chaser today?
 
SPC has a public severe weather outlook on their day one convective outlook page, an outbreak (high risk :D (crossing my fingers)??), they say?

I have looked at the new RUC model data and it has the low pressure back up in Nebraska, but I will wait and see what my beloved NAM model says about the low pressure, whether or not it will continue on a path along US Highway 50. I am still targetting Emporia, Kansas, but may drop further south to Parsons and Chanute if conditions deem necessary.

EDIT: I will now target Coffeyville. Best instability exists (according to 12Z RUC) in the southeastern portions of Kansas, and I believe Coffeyville could reap in the benefits, this time.

Ben,

Send this stuff Northwest. SE KS is still cleaning up from 2003 and there's plenty of open flinthills for tornadoes to play in where they can't do any damage! :lol:


JH
 
I think I'll sit tight in Lawrence and see what comes within striking distance today. Class prevents an early departure, and I honestly think that aside from being a bit too far NE, this isn't a bad place to be.
 
Well no one has dared to say it yet, so I'll be the first. Today reminds me of a certain day in 2003. The setup and dynamics are unique and perhaps not looking as strong as 5/4/03 did at this time in the morning ... but the orientation of the risk area, the forecast language, the PWO statement ... it just can't help but remind me at this point. I can't imagine by the end of the day we'll be talking about another May 4th ... but at the same time I can't help but feel a bit of the same energy this morning as I remember feeling on that Sunday morning two years ago. I worry about Missouri a bit ... if we end up with another line of tornadic supes, anytime something like that rolls through Missouri there are significant losses in property and life ... in Kansas the human tolls are minimized ... but once these things cross the rivers they enter into a much more population dense area, so a bit of concern always crosses my mind. Be sure to call in your reports today ...
 
Well, looks like they removed the half-written PSWO from the SPC website. TSA has downgraded their tornado risk from Elevated to Limited... I think we'll see the 15% moved back up north away from eastern OK. I sitll think there's a tornado risk enough to chase, but I'm not as optimistic as before given the VERY veered surface winds in northcentral and moving into northeastern OK. I'm heading out with Gabe Garfield and some others in a few hours on I40 towards Okemah probably. My northeastern OK target seems to be turning sour given the SW or WSW winds in northcentral OK and strong pressure rises behind the wind shift (well, everywhere in OK, but particularly behind the wind shift). I can't imagine that we won't see surface pressure falls given the mid-level low/trough, but the surface pressures in OK are rising pretty quickly, so ....
 
Well no one has dared to say it yet, so I'll be the first. Today reminds me of a certain day in 2003. The setup and dynamics are unique and perhaps not looking as strong as 5/4/03 did at this time in the morning ... but the orientation of the risk area, the forecast language, the PWO statement ... it just can't help but remind me at this point. I can't imagine by the end of the day we'll be talking about another May 4th ... but at the same time I can't help but feel a bit of the same energy this morning as I remember feeling on that Sunday morning two years ago. I worry about Missouri a bit ... if we end up with another line of tornadic supes, anytime something like that rolls through Missouri there are significant losses in property and life ... in Kansas the human tolls are minimized ... but once these things cross the rivers they enter into a much more population dense area, so a bit of concern always crosses my mind. Be sure to call in your reports today ...


I was thinking the same thing....just didnt want to post it....figured someone would laugh at me... Some strong daytime heating, and it could almost be a repeat. I hope not, but it could. I plan on heading down there, I hope the storms just dont decide to plant one in Metro KC, I am beginning to worry for the people there.
 
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