4/21/05 TALK: KS/MO

5/4/03 came to mind for me as well (last night, in fact), although I don't think today's setup is particularly similar meteorologically. Kansas City is probably the place to be today, but I've chased in and around KC (most recently on 5/4/03), and don't have much desire to do it again. I'm definitely not chasing in MO.

Here in Nebraska, the surface winds seem awfully weak ahead of the low (as Mike H. pointed out). Overnight convection wasn't as widespread as I expected, but it looks like we're sucking rain-cooled air from the MCS in N MO this morning.

Red box just went up to my west. I'll continue monitoring from home.
 
New SPC forecast much of the same - nothing real new - but perhaps not as strongly worded as before. Focus is still on large hail as the primary threat, but braod region of 15% tornadoes as well. Would be surprised to see actual tornado reports this evenly distributed though.

Glen
 
The 3 supercells in the southern half of Kansas on May 4 wasn't a bad place to be either.
I am looking at Yates Center as a good target. It should be well ahead of the dryline with great road options. You will be able to see how storms come off the dryline and should be able to hit any storm from Emporia to the Oklahoma border within an hour. I am heading out East on 254 at about 1. Good luck to all today. I think it might happen this time :shock:
Of course I thought it was going to happen yesterday in SW Nebraska too.
 
Re: winds

Ben, what are the winds like in Ottawa? Very erratic at the surface here in south Lawrence...keeps shifting from SE to S to SW then back again.
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Surface winds here in Ottawa are from the South, it has stayed pretty consistent with southerly winds. Complete blue skies to my west, I would not be surprised to see a red box over to the west of Ottawa.
 
I hate to post this - but I don't really know if there's very much of a "dry"line left with this system. It's a dryline/cold front hybrid, a pseudo-dryfront? :?

Regardless - I think that this might, unfortunately, be an anafront kind of day. Not that there WON'T be supercells or tornadoes - I am sure there will be.......but it just makes me go "yeck"......

KR
 
Re: thanks

Thanks. We're starting to get some sun here in Lawrence, now. Surface winds still erratic.
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indeed, from n. central lawrence, I'm seeing blue from my window.

If things progress and I can get some good lighting, I'll go out for structure shots.
 
I am currently in Emporia and it is overcast here, the sun wants to poke through every one in a while but clouds rule the landscape here. I am going to sit around and monitor some models before I make a decision on where to go next.

EDIT: I am currently heading to Topeka, away from the yucky clouds that are in Emporia and SW of town.
 
Storms starting to build from nw to se in NE and moving off to the north. I would be looking to target the first storms, which begin to move eastward along the boundary. They should initiate near the KS / NE line, perhaps Thayer County, NE or Washington County, KS.
 
Hey, don't forget about the fact that the tornado watch does extend into NE. On NWS radar, I can already see a line of strorms in an arc from Mullen, Broken Bow down to Grand Island. On the COD VIS SAT, you can see that same arching band extending itself S/SE into Kansas, where it will join up with another band extending northward from Emporia, Eureka thru Mahattan. Once these clouds joins up, the convection will begin and those thunderheads will begin pushing up.

I would wait and see what happens in the next 2-3 hours. Look like a lot chasers may wind up heading into NE today.

Can't chase if I really wanted to because I had cochlear implant surgery seven days ago. Sorry! :cry: LJK.
 
Okay, since this is a "talk" thread and not forecast, I can curse the weather Gods for totally screwing this day up !!!!! You're absolutely correct Karen, and I saw this thing happen right in front of me on my computer from about 8:30 this morning on... dryline just raced out and now is pretty well gone. All that remains is, I wouldn't call it a cold front, and I wouldn't call it a dryline... I'd call it a "wind shift". :wink:

I'll almost bet you that there will be NO confirmed tornado reports today after all this big "hype" and hope for being a big day. The parameters are just falling apart for any substantial tornado event. This looks like a big bunch of MCS or lines / bow segments. Yeah, there'll be hail, high winds, and a bunch of frustrated chasers.

I guess I'll just sit here and "virtual chase" in my mind "WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN." This year has been all screwed up and it doesn't look like there's any big changes coming soon. Drought everywhere, ughhh... I just wanna scream !!!!! :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:

Yes, I know, this is a "talk" about the severe weather events in KS / MO / etc. - but my point being, there ain't gonna be much of a severe weather event, in my opinion. Lots of hailers, lots of wind, okay... maybe a couple of tornadoes, but I just don't see dozens???????????? This thing turned from promising to, as Chris Farley used to say, "A bunch of Jack Squat!" :roll:

Anyway, good luck to those who ARE out, I'll save my gas money for yet another big whoopin' promise that perhaps may hold true.

Someday, someday mind you, there will be a tornado day on the PLAINS and not over in the hills, trees, river valleys, etc. :?
 
I'm sitting in NE Missouri with a brand new severe thunderstorm watch. Hoping to see some weather here, even if its just some beautiful clouds or something. Possible I could get out later if things really pick up, but there's nothing going on now. Its been chilly and cloudy all morning, but its starting to warm up now.
 
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