4/21/05 TALK: KS/MO

Nice convergence showing up now near Lawrence running in a line north through the watch box ... winds are also backing near Lawrence ... on satellite there is a small group of CU showing up west of a line from Atchison to Lawrence along the convergence corridor ... wonder if they might end up doing anything or just sit there ...
 
I am starting to notice some cumulus to my nw (ks turnpike milepost 161) that are trying to develop into Tc, things are starting to get better!

EDIT: now at milepost 170 and cloud has developed! anvil is there, i will follow this storm.
 
Thayer County cell is growing and moving to ne. If it can stay isolated it may be one to watch.

off topic: It seams kind of funny for MN and WI to be have tornado warning test today?
 
Don't get me wrong, there obviously will be severe weather, I just don't see all the parameters coming together for a significant "tornado" event... read my post, yes, there will be a lot of hailers, winders, rainers, whatever. And I know what you're thinking... we're supposed to be "storm" chasers not just "tornado" chasers.

The only thing I'm griping about is that this day was played up to be "all that", and at least from where I'm at here at OUN, we'll be lucky if we get any rainfall. :?

For those of us that prefer chasing over what we would call chase terrain, it's been a lousy year thus far. Although I'm three for three in the tornado column, it just seems that a lot of these systems have fallen apart here for the southern Plains. I know some of you have had really good luck up in Kansas and points on east, and I do mean you all the very best of luck today, but I just have the feeling that these things are all going to line up very quickly, then cluster together and haul a$$ across the MO Valley.

I do not see any tornado events today... but for you guys' and gals' sake who are out chasing, I sincerely hope I'm wrong.

Not pessimistic, just calling it as I see it. You guys be careful over there and don't hate me for making this post, it's just my "gritch" at Mother Nature I guess. If gas were $1.30 a gallon, I'd probably be up near KC or Springfield today, but it's just not in the cards, and it seems like for a lot of us here in Norman, it's been this way all year... just venting a little steam here.

Good luck to all.
 
no prob, Billy ... I feel your pain ... at least you're doing a lot better than some of us when it comes to your 'catch ratio' right now ... been a terribly dull year for me so far ... think that's why any glimmer of hope is getting me all worked up right now ... thinking you may be right about the realistic chances for something significant today. Thankfully this is close to home today, because if it required a drive I would definitely be arm-chairing it in these conditions.

New SVR watch in SW Missouri, including Springfield, I see ...
 
Okay, since this is a "talk" thread and not forecast, I can curse the weather Gods for totally screwing this day up !!!!! You're absolutely correct Karen, and I saw this thing happen right in front of me on my computer from about 8:30 this morning on... dryline just raced out and now is pretty well gone. All that remains is, I wouldn't call it a cold front, and I wouldn't call it a dryline... I'd call it a "wind shift". :wink:

>snip<

I guess I'll just sit here and "virtual chase" in my mind "WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN." This year has been all screwed up and it doesn't look like there's any big changes coming soon. Drought everywhere, ughhh... I just wanna scream !!!!! :twisted: :twisted: :twisted:

>snip<

Someday, someday mind you, there will be a tornado day on the PLAINS and not over in the hills, trees, river valleys, etc. :?
Click to expand...

Maybe it's not a pseudo-dryfront.....maybe it's a hybrid-coldline, anybody? Regardless, I think to find any sort of dryline now one would have to be down by MAF or someplace.......

:shock:

Chill, man. It's not even May yet. Ya know what we were all saying this time last year? Doom and gloom, no tornadoes, blah blah blah. What happened? 2004 turned out to be the best tornado season anybody'd had.

There are rumblings in the crystal balls of some gravy-esque longwave trough setting up over the 4-corners......so don your cloak and prepare to do some serious model skulking.....and chill, man.

:wink:

Oh, and about storms just now, I suppose to keep this on track..........

Our system has truly blown by now - with a convective MESS centered on Joplin, MO. Crappy-looking storms meandering through central MO, all in all I'd sure be glad I stayed home if I had even had the opportunity to chase today. Looks like unless you're playing the warm front up north, you're hosed.

KR
 
I am stuck at work till 7pm, in kc, but if anybody needs some nowcasting, I can get some data between customers and text it to you, ect. just give a loc. I have access to highspeed t1!! :) cell phone # is 816-377-3686
 
stuff is bubbling around Topeka ~ Kansas City. Other CU running north into Nebraska looks linear and then there's that mess around Loplin, MO.

The visible shows some very nice clearing east of Topeka on towards KC where some TCU are showing... that may be the best bet ???

No watch down into East-Central KS yet, but perhaps ???

I can "nowcast" for someone if you'd like... sitting here at work and have T-3 speeds and all the radar, visible, etc. called up. Just willing to help if you would like. Office # is 405-366-4767.
 
Currently in Tulsa, heading north on hwy 75 towards Bartlesville and points east. Mesonet showing S-SE sfc winds in a corridor between the wind shift and the outflow from the elevated convetion to the east. Nice TCU attempts current to our north and northeast, with rock-hard sides at times. Latest sfc ob from tulsa indicating pressure falling here, so looks like back winds may remain in a relatively small area between Tulsa and southeastern KS.

Interested to see what the 20z SWODY1 looks like, given the odd orientation of the watch boxes relative to the convective outlook risks. For example, the blue box in far ne OK / sw MO / nw AR doesn't butt up against western edge of MDT risk...

Cell to our immediate north - northeast looks to be precipitating now... still struggling w/ cap is appears.
 
That may be a good call Jeff !!! I've been noticing that funny little "spin" of clouds all day over SC Kansas, now moving east. Perhaps some sort of meso low ???

Nothing stands out right now on the visible, but there's a lot of CU fields in your area and to the north.

Hey, that stuff over near Joplin could push some boundary your way if you're lucky. Who knows. I'll keep watching the web.
 
I wonder if the cell going up near Manhattan, KS will be the storm of the day?

The storms going up across the border in NE do have me somewhat concerned, as they should be moving into an area where cloud cover has kept temperatures down throughout the day. That should make for lower cloud bases, so if a storm can capitalize on the great low-level turning ahead of the low and/or latch on to the warm front, it could be a good tornado producer.

I'm not sure how long a window we'll have in NE before things start lining out or forming clusters, however. I'm also worried about lack of instability on account of morning convection and the aforementioned cloud cover (it's a double-edged sword). Surface analysis shows the warm front sitting right on top of my house, so if a single storm can get its act together, it should be an easy intercept. How convenient is that?

Looks like SE KS and E OK are screwed.
 
Radar is now showing one little "blip" over SE Osage County. That is likely forming along with "wind shift" line (former dryline/cold front)

Big ole mess over by Joplin, MO - nothing to get excited about.

1 very nice cell now taking shape ~ Topeka, KS !!! That is the best "lone" cell for those who are close.
 
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