Cell in Butler Co. AL TOR-warned as of 7:30 AM, with Luverne under the gun. Huge watch box with significant probabilities out until 2 PM to kick things off early - let the chaos begin.
Storms moving into Mississippi are exhibiting real broad and weak rotation as they lift NEward along the front. With clear or partly cloudy skies from Jackson to Magnolia to Hattiesburg and extremely favorable wind profiles and Td spreads, it is only a matter of time before the cap starts to go. If there is a strong tornado today I believe it will probably be in that triangle this afternoon, shifting E with time in SC AL.
If I were chasing I would be in the Monticello/Prentiss MS area. Although I am not entirely confident on the terrain down there. It has been about 7 years since I was down there.
Really happy with how this is looking. Im sitting in West Point now looking at a fat bubble of SBCAPE around 1500 j/kg, dews around 64-67, fixed-layer siggy tor at 4 and bulk shear is over 70kts!
Im getting some good cloud breaks over here. Looks like things are really going to get hairy if something gets discreet out there.
Currently moving through the Meridian area, still overcast ~400ft, little BR few miles back, like what I'm seeing down towards Liberty, MS, discrete cells firing.
Seems like the area I outlined an hour ago is lighting up with semi-discrete thunderstorms. (I shouldn't be too proud of this since I am sure everyone and their dog knew where they were going to occur, but it feels good to do it myself) That cell down near Liberty looks like the strongest and may be one to watch. As mentioned before the cells are moving into an extremely favorable environment. Storm speeds are less than desirable for chasing and even more dangerous due to the fact that large (possibly rainwrapped) tornadoes moving at 55+ poses an enhanced threat for life and warning reaction time. Will be fun to watch unfold (until about 5 PM) then I have to leave. Hopefully no one loses life/property today.
Still mostly overcast up here, but south central AL looks more promising, with that nice open wedge of sunshine on satellite. That's where I'd want to be.
That said, the weather alarm is going off right now as I post with TOR watch 107 up here, through 8pm...
Grrrr. Stupid unidirectional wind profiles along the pre-frontal convection neutralized my chase triangle with linear non rotating storms. Me thinks the tornado threat today may be far less, unless sustained supercell develop into Alabama or even Nward into TN and KY. I don't see the squall line really producing much in the way of any sustained rotation. Although the area along the Gulf Coast has been tornado warned for some time now.
If it is any consolation to me, a reported/unconfirmed tornado did infact hit NEAR the area I would have set up shop had I been chasing. Again, good luck to those of you chasing and so far so good on a property/life standpoint.
Sitting in Elizabethtown, ky waiting to see if the cells firing to the southeast are going to get things together. Cirrostratus deck in place with cumulus, a few with some vertical development just to east right now.
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