4/07/06 NOW: Midwest and South

[Scott Lincoln]

Severe hail from 1.5-1.75" and developing rotation on an unwarned storm in northern Rutherford County, TN

NW Pontotoc County, MS.....
Supercell with 80dbz has MAXED OUT the GR2AE hail algorithm at 5.00" estimated hail size. Located over Thaxton right now and headed to Ecru.

 

[Justin Bailey]

confirmed tornado on the ground 7 mi north of McMinnville, TN

 

[Matt Haworth]

Does anyone have any live coverage from the Mississippi area as some extremely strong sups are currenty ongoing/developing.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

21z Jackson sounding isn't very hot.... http://weather.cod.edu/wx/public/raob/18Z/KJAN.skewt.21.GIF

1000 CAPE and 275 0-3km SRH, but very little CAPE below 600 mb and not much directional shear in the low-levels. Perhaps conditions are better to the north, but there can't be a whole lot of low-level vertical acceleration (which is necessary to stretch the tilted vorticity associated with the low-level shear).

 

[Bill Tabor]

Wow! This is incredible - looks like streams of training tornadic supercells!!!

 

[Andrea Griffa]

If I was in Rutherford County in the Murfreesboro area I would be real nervous right now especially since Nashville went with an SVR instead of a TOR. BWER still visible on composite reflectivity. I will concede that the couplet does not look as good but hook is still there. Next 10-15 minutes Murfreesboro will be hit and I would hate to see a tornado spinup on the city without a tornado warning out!
[/b]

From radial velocity it seems that rotation is slowing down but I think it's forming a new meso on the west side of the sup. Let's see...

 

[Kurt Wayne]

If I was in Rutherford County in the Murfreesboro area I would be real nervous right now especially since Nashville went with an SVR instead of a TOR. BWER still visible on composite reflectivity. I will concede that the couplet does not look as good but hook is still there. Next 10-15 minutes Murfreesboro will be hit and I would hate to see a tornado spinup on the city without a tornado warning out!
[/b]

WLAC now reporting apparently 3 lives lost in Gallatin, TN, 2 others in McMinnville.

 

[Bob Schafer]

21z Jackson sounding isn't very hot.... [/b]

Geez, the gulf must not have recovered very well from the last round we had. Latest obs from JAN are 82/58. 58? I'd have expected about 70 right now. If JAN just had a Td of 65, that SkewT would look mighty different.

 

[Justin Bailey]

wkrn in nashville is reporting 7 fatalities confirmed in sumner co.
The storm exiting wayne co is looking real good. that air mass hasn't had a thing go through it all day.
But i once again have got to go. this storm is starting to get real close.

 

[HAltschule]

21z Jackson sounding isn't very hot.... http://weather.cod.edu/wx/public/raob/18Z/KJAN.skewt.21.GIF

1000 CAPE and 275 0-3km SRH, but very little CAPE below 600 mb and not much directional shear in the low-levels. Perhaps conditions are better to the north, but there can't be a whole lot of low-level vertical acceleration (which is necessary to stretch the tilted vorticity associated with the low-level shear).
[/b]

I noticed this also. Around 12pm today when I was typing my virtual chase forecast, I noticed an unanalyzed outflow boundary/Pseudo-Warm Front type feature in Northern MS. That feature still remains in the Northern MS and Northern AL areas and I think is going to contribute to even more localized shear. As a result, the directional shear increases significantly in the Northern 1/4 of MS and AL and across the border into TN as a result. I believe, as these storms move further north toward the state lines, we will see an enhanced area of long lived tornado potential...especially where MS, AL and TN meet.

 

[Justin Bailey]

rotating wall cloud aproaching me from the west in murfreesboro. the cell north of machester, tn looks like it is trying to get its act together. i expect a severe warning soon.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Composite radar from Columbus AFB (MS) displays THREE storms with reflectivities >75dbZ. I have NEVER seen that on one radar before. Must be a lot of humungous hail.

 

[Kevin Bowman]

Composite radar from Columbus AFB (MS) displays THREE storms with reflectivities >75dbZ. I have NEVER seen that on one radar before. Must be a lot of humungous hail.
[/b]

the cell in grenada county had 75DBZ through all 4 tilts on my GR3 about 20 minutes ago,


the cell in tishomingo county Ms has nice couplet just to the south of Luka, the town of cherokee is in the path and should be affected within 30 minutes or so

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

Despite the range from the site...the rotation looks to be quite vigorous. [/b]

That's the norm, the radar is sampling the strong mesocyclone in the mid-levels.

 

[HAltschule]

Spotters reporting a large and extremely dangeorus tornado on the ground in Morgan City and Moorhead, MS.

Edit: I see Alex beat me to it. I seem to be two steps behind today.....