4/07/06 NOW: Midwest and South

[George Tincher]

New PDS tornado watch (#162) is now in effect until 8 PM CDT for NE AR, SRN IL, SRN IN, C/W KY, SERN MO and Middle/WRN TN.

Currenly, there's a number of isolated cells developing over WRN sections of TN, rapidly becoming severe, and moving off to the NE.

Sfc obs over this area at 10:30 AM CDT already show temps into the low 70's and dewpoints into the low to mid 60's, as far N as SRN IL/IN!

Winds are currently about 10 knts from the SSW.

I was a bit surprised to see this stuff fire this early, but it appears conditions are already plenty favorable for the development of severe weather over the entire watch area. Meanwhile, farther S over MS, heating is still ongoing and awaiting later initiation.

This could be a long day.

 

[Jim Bishop]

This is going to be another big torando outbreak. Storms are already firing along surface troughing, gravity waves and general large scale ascent. The BNA morning sounding supports tornadic supercells, hodograph looks amazing. Instability is fine and the moisture is increasing. I really wish the storms could move slower to give people more time to take shelter today.

Yes, it's going to be a long day...

 

[George Tincher]

I typically frown on the posting of snippets from the SPC or other external sources, but this grabbed my attention. Listen to the wording in the watch discussion:

DISCUSSION...VERY POTENT TORNADIC SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS TN VALLEY AHEAD OF DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER NERN KS. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MDT TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENT/LONG
TRACK TORNADOES.[/b]

That sounds EXTREMELY serious. And to be happening this early and with a great deal of this actual watch even outside even the MOD area on the 1300z outlook, I now fear the developing outbreak may be even more widespread than previously feared. Considering what I saw on the sfc obs and soundings today across these areas, the whole area IMHO looks ripe.

 

[George Tincher]

Sigh. It looks like that massive, well formed storm over Stewart County, TN is getting ready to cross the KY state line....and then head right for Hopkinsville, KY......the area that was just ravaged in the last outbreak by a 500 yard wide F3.

 

[HAltschule]

The 14z sounding from Jackson, MS shows an extremely dry layer aloft. Besides the possibilities of strong tornadoes, downburst winds and widespread wind damage should be particularly potent I think. The sounding shows helicity of 277 and there is still a cap of 2.4 degrees C. I would imagine that the area is getting very close to initiation as the cap is eroding. There is also a feature moving northward through Northern MS and AL right now that resembles an boundary of some sort (outflow?? Possibly). This will likely be the trigger for Supercells shortly. I like the area in the northern 1/4 of MS and West-Central TN initially....with additional development and movement into Northern AL.

PS: I'm not toally convinced that a high risk is warranted today due to not so "perfect" dynamics right now, but it is possible that this boundary I was talking about could enhance the local shear for tornadogensis. Certainly, the one thing we do have today is much better moisture return/availability. So, I do expect an outbreak of tornadoes this afternoon/evening and I suppose I can't really rule out that some could be strong.

Good luck to all those chasers out there. Be safe.

PS: If you come across any Live TV Streams or streaming webcams on the 'net, please post them here for those of us who are stuck in Non-Tornado Ally land. Thanks a lot.

 

[Bob Schafer]

I have spotty success finding decent webcams on this site, but maybe someone can find something good on here:

http://www.leonardsworlds.com/united_states.html

Here's another one to try:

http://www.instacam.com/find.asp

 

[HAltschule]

FYI...TOR Issued for cell moving through SW Tennessee. Very good low level rotation on SRV and a hook appearance on Base Reflectivity.

EDIT: Wall cloud visibile from the storm mentioned above at this website.
http://www.instacam.com/showcam.asp?id=MPTWB&size=S

 

[George Tincher]

As for streaming video, I have such a slow connection that I don't even bother. But for live audio streaming, here's a couple I have if anyone wants to listen later:

Louisville, KY
www.84whas.com
They simulcast WAVE-3 TV's severe weather coverage and do an excellent job of updating severe weather info.

Lexington, KY
www.wlap.com
They simulcast WLEX-18 TV's coverage.

Being this whole area is now in a moderate risk with 15% hatched tornado probs over a good portion of it, there may be quite a bit to hear later.

 

[Brandon Clement]

Currently heading up I-55 targeting between Greenville & Tunica in the MS delta. Stage is set for a big day hopefully we can get some storms and I will post pics as I get them.

 

[HAltschule]

EDIT: Wall cloud visibile from the storm mentioned above at this website.
http://www.instacam.com/showcam.asp?id=MPTWB&size=S

 

[George Tincher]

Tornado on the ground 10 minutes ago in Carroll Co, TN

AT 1237 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 6
MILE SOUTH OF MCKENZIE...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.[/b]

BTW, the storm E of that one is showing a massive hook and overall presentation right now, heading into Humphreys Co, TN. It is showing rotation at all 3 tilts I looked at. Really nice storm.

 

[Mike Parker]

Channel 5 in Nashville is streaming live weather coverage.

http://www.newschannel5.com/content/

 

[HAltschule]

FYI...2 Tornadic Supercells are currently West of Nashville, TN at 2:00pm EDT and both contain close to or larger than softball sized hail.

Interestingly, the storm track brings these 2 supercells northeast of Nashville, TN shorlty, but I think they have a very high chance of staying further south than the track suggest right now. As such, I'd expect a high tornado threat in the City of Nashville, TN over the next couple of hours. Getting interesting....

EDIT: Awesome...thanks for the link Mike!!

 

[HAltschule]

EDIT: This is getting very bad for the city of Nashville. There is a double TVS and strong G2G shear on the the latest doppler image. It looks like a large tornado is or will be on the ground shortly based on the wide area of very strong rotation.

 

[Dan Cook]

Not looking good for Nashville:

http://img453.imageshack.us/img453/8500/wow5jr.png

http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/9767/wow14lw.png

Also, is anyone having problems with the site Mike posted? I can't get the streaming to work.