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4/07/06 NOW: Midwest and South

Southern half of Nashville could be a huge tornado disaster. In the process of upgrading my outlook from earlier...as I just got back to see that cloud cover did indeed erode away nicely.
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Webcams showing downtown Nashville getting hammered by hail...quarter sized reported.
 
Southern half of Nashville could be a huge tornado disaster. In the process of upgrading my outlook from earlier...as I just got back to see that cloud cover did indeed erode away nicely.
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So far no tornado reports for south Nashville.... at least anything significant....
 
Justin Bailey....Regarding your earlier post. Update: Supercell is tracking a lot closer to your house. It looks like at least the very large hail will be over Murfreesboro itself. Tornado itself may pass just south of downtown Murfreesboro....but it will be a very close call. Wind damage looks very likely though.

Baseball to softball sized hail is going to pass near your house. I hope you have a garage for your car. Take shelter my friend.....
 
So far no tornado reports for south Nashville.... at least anything significant.... [/b]

SRV from KHPX indicates that the rotation on the supercell over southern Nashville is not nearly as impressive as before, nor is it as intense as the incredible supercell heading towards Mufreesboro (south of Nashville). I think that northern supercell may be feeling the effects of being north of that southern storm (the meso is ~20 miles north of the meso on the southern superclel). That southern supercell has had an amazing mesocyclone for the past few hours. The "new" supercell moving northern northern Perry county (meso just south of I44) is very strong as well, and that one is heading towards Nashville as well.

Initiation ongoing in southeastern AR, northeastern LA, and northern MS. The winds have veered a bit I think, so it'll be interesting to see how these evolve. In addition, the number of storms developing could either be good (storm interacting destructively, etc) or bad (widespread tornadic supercells).
 
Justin Bailey....Regarding your earlier post. Update: Supercell is tracking a lot closer to your house. It looks like at least the very large hail will be over Murfreesboro itself. Tornado itself may pass just south of downtown Murfreesboro....but it will be a very close call. Wind damage looks very likely though.

Baseball to softball sized hail is going to pass near your house. I hope you have a garage for your car. Take shelter my friend.....
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GR2AE estimates hail to 3.6" in diameter heading for Murfreesboro
estimated 3.8" hail now passing just north of Overall, TN

Severe hail shaft is now 5-7 miles wide. Area of hail larger than 2" hail is now 2.5 miles wide.
 
Latest radar from Ft. Campbell indicates another large tornado warned cell in northern Perry county with a strong shear couplet approaching Lobelville area. If this storm continues on its current path we could be dealing with another very dangerous situation for the Nashville area.
 
BWER_2100z_Nashville.jpg


GR2AE Hail algorithms projecting hail to 2.5" in diameter falling across parts of Murfreesboro as we speak....

Storms really filling in all the way down to LA.... in the area of greatest shear and instability... I think the main show might just be getting started....

Nashville CH5 now has callers reporting fatalities in Gallatin, TN...
 
Storms continue to remain quite discrete across MS/TN. Training supercells continue WSW of Nashville with storms producing mid-level mesocyclones at an astonishing rate. Definitely becoming concerned about the potential for very destructive tornadoes later this afternoon and evening as high octane moisture (upper 60s/low 70s Tds) reaches the high risk area and low-level jet picks up.

Damage from a tornado near Nashville:
9_2_040706_storm14.jpg


Gabe
 
Uncomfirmed reports of a possible 3 fatalities in the Woodhaven subdivision in the NE Nashville suburb of Gallatin per Channel 5 Nashville. It was received from a resident, so I'm skeptical at best, but reported.

CONFIRMED: Two fatalities in N. Nashville per a spokesman with the Tennessee Emergency Management Agency, CNN.
 
Unfortunately fatalities are being reported in the Gallatin, TN area (norht of Nashville) with the 1st TOR that moved through.
 
GR2AE now estimates hail to 4.5" in diameter falling to the SE of Murfreesboro. Rotation still looks more like a mesocyclone with no intense couplet that i can see, but definitely this storm appears to be strong enough to produce tornadoes at anytime.
 
TOR warning on storm over Oxford, MS.

EDIT: I'm about to depart for TN/AL/MS border to intercept and follow this batch of storms. I'll carry a borrowed wifi laptop, but don't know how much opportunity there will be for updates. If anyone can help with nowcasting, please pm a phone #. Thank you.
 
Not to be flippant during this serious situation, but there was a little comic relief:

Reporter on the scene on Ch 5, gesturing towards a damaged house, reported "Three people from this home were taken to a nearby hospital where they sustained some minor injuries......."

lol
 
3D Hail Spike from GR2AE
TBSS_2125z_Nashville.jpg


Also i'm noting an increase in the shear as it approaches Woodbury. May be tightening up a bit. Hail to 3.00-3.25" now, possible tornado in minutes....
 
Looking at the KOHX radar (thanks for the heads up Mike!) there are two storms with decent hooks in Hickman and Rutherford counties at 2121Z. Does anyone think it is a possibility that the storm west of Nashville could weaken before it gets close to Nashville due to rain cooled air? I hope it does, would be some good news for Nashville.
 
well we made it through round 1 for the night. we recieved hail of 2.25" and hail damage to siding, shudders, and windows. we also recieved an rfd gust of near 50 mph. did have rotation to our north.
 
Now getting some really good low level rotation and a spectrum width maximum at the center in the storm to the east of Woodbury. Looks like the rotation may be tightening and the chance for a tornado, perhaps a strong tornado, is increasing.

Also looks like the tornado might be in the center of the intense hail core. That would be one heck of an HP.....

At 5:00pm the spectrum width maximum has increased dramatically and a tornado may be forming or on the ground now 3.5 miles south of Ecre, MS....
 
very nice hook on the cannon co. storm. i did notice on the spc reports page that a tornado did touchdown off of old salem rd. (hwy 99.) which is less than a mile to my north.
 
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