4/06/06 NOW: KS/NE/IA/MO/OK/AR/TX

[Todd Rasmuson]

POSS. WALL CLOUD REPORTED NE OF GUTHRIE,OK NEAR AND NW OF COYLE, LANGSTON AREA
JUST E OF I-35 IN NC OKLAHOMA... IAM WATCHING IT CLOSELY...

 

[David Douglas]

Todd, No rotation showing on SRV on that storm attm. If you have a lowering check for rotation, that is important to note.

 

[Nic Wilson]

Dryline currently passing thru OUN. Unforunately, I am stuck here this afternoon due to thesis writing and night class commitments...doh! As Tony just mentioned, initiation is well underway east of Enid and north of Edmond along the I-35 corridor. Although a bit dated now, the 19z Lamont profiler showed decent low-level shear but winds back above 3km AGL. The towering cu fields around OUN were getting sheared apart by the evident 75 kt flow at 500 mb. The straight-line hodographs are already showing their effect with the splitting storm in KS, limiting tornadic potential. All indications are that the dryline will continue to initiate, but I believe its likely things will go linear very quickly in southern KS and OK (similar to the 5 April 2005 set-up). Best of luck to those watching these storms fly by them this afternoon!

 

[Bob Schafer]

Another thing I just noticed looking at SPC Mesoanalysis is that storms in KS and perhaps NE will have anvil level winds from almost due south.[/b]

Mesoanalysis says that, yeah, but vis imagery clearly shows anvils blowing ENE.
edit: (Well, at least from the cell currently over I-70)

 

[Todd Rasmuson]

circulation getting stronger... just w of stillwater western payne county
just s of highway 51.... lookin more and more like a classic supercell to me
this needs to be watched closely...

EDIT: i must add its upper to mid level circulation at this point has at times
went half way down or so and gone back up, but good core to it, looking fairly
good, attm not showin up to great on radar though... keepin a good eye on it though...


EDIT 2: high base spin up just a min ago, lasted not even 30 secs or so.. but this
gives us better picture that we have good upper flow, i expect it to do something
as it gets just e of stillwater, maybe up towards or just s of pawnee... watching this
one closely...

 

[Dan Robinson]

Crazy fast storm motions today. If you're chasing you're going to have to start *way* out ahead of this initial development. I actually laughed out loud when I looped the TWX radar and saw how fast the left split near Ellsworth was moving. Even though most of these are tracking due north it is going to be near impossible to keep up with these. I noticed that the warning text on that cell gave a speed of 50mph - doeas anyone have anything different? It looks to be moving faster than that.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Mesoanalysis says that, yeah, but vis imagery clearly shows anvils blowing ENE.
edit: (Well, at least from the cell currently over I-70)
[/b]

True. I was about to mention that but you beat me to it; however I'd say more NE with some NNE and one in particular ENE.

Another thing, if any of you have the chance run Mobile Threatnet at the same time you are monitoring with GRlevelx or Weathertap, etc. Zoom in and see what kind of a position difference there is if any based on delay with Threatnet. That would be valuable info to all of us.

 

[Bob Schafer]

Thought some of you might like this URL today...

LARGE VIS image

 

[David Douglas]

Good point Bill. Bill Tabor, Gene Moore, Bill Combes and I were using threatnet last weekend with fast moving storms and you've got to be very carefull. The time delay is really evident with fast moving storms. Expect up to a 10-15 minute apparent delay while using threatnet.

 

[HAltschule]

I'm really starting to like the area from Wichita, KS to Topeka, KS to Joplin, MO for enhanced supercell and tornado potential. These areas have cleared out nicely, will see additional heating and appear to have the best chance for discrete supercell structure over the next several hours. New convection and the convection coming up from OK will be moving into primed areas of dynamics for the enhanced threat.

Anyone else agree with this? The other stuff in Northern KS already looks linear and is moving through contaminated air.

 

[Edward Ballou]

First TVS of the day has popped up west of Tulsa in NC OK. Doesn't look like much on radar yet though.

 

[Bill Tabor]

Thought some of you might like this URL today... (sorry about the length; I forget how to do the "click here" HTML thing attm)

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-g...=GOES-E%20CONUS
&lat=39&info=vis&quality=90&map=county&lon=-100&zoom=1&width=1000
&height=800%3EEastern%20United%20States
[/b]

Bob's Link From Above

Also looks like SPC concurs with Alex's and my thoughts about the southern area on 20z outlook by extending the High risk there. I think eastern OK & western AR have potential.

 

[HAltschule]

1st: Cell South of I-70 in KS has decent rotation with it and could TOR anytime.

2nd: Aside from extending the high risk southward, SPC also upgraded the Mississippi Valley area to High Risk for tomorrow.

CHASERS NEAR SALINA, KS:

There is a very good chance that the Supercell approaching I-70 from the south has or will have a tornado soon. Lots of G2G shear. That location provides ideal chasing and positioning along I-70. Let us know if you catch anything on that storm. Good luck.

PS: Please post any Live TV Station Streams or Webcam streaming links. Thanks.

 

[David Douglas]

If you get a chance, pull up the visible. One picture is worth a thousand words.

 

[Ann Money]

KFOR.com out of OK city is web casting