4/06/06 NOW: KS/NE/IA/MO/OK/AR/TX

[Chris Wilburn]

Headed west on 54 from Fort Scott, KS. I am with Tyler Costantini, Joey Ketcham, and Matt Kassawara. Looks like a good day. Everybody be safe out there!

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Headed west on 54 from Fort Scott, KS. I am with Tyler Costantini, Joey Ketcham, and Matt Kassawara. Looks like a good day. Everybody be safe out there!
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Sitting in Fairbury, NE right now. LCL's out here are still ridiculously high. Nice line of cu starting to show up on the sat shot just out west. May drop south a bit into KS, as the LCLs are much better down there.

 

[Brian Stertz]

I will be heading out from Overland Park after work (around 6pm)...I know stuff will already be going nuts (or should be going nuts) nearby. So my readiness will be delayed until I get out of work. Still favoring the Topeka area as my target. This will probably change as things start getting after it in about the next 2-3 hrs.

 

[Kiel Ortega]

Dryline starting to bulge (centered on OKC and extending about 50 km north and south) per OK Mesonet. Slight subsidence slowly moving out of this area, so within the next hour probably have a storm formed on the north side of the bulge. Like the KS mirror split, though looks as if 60-75 kts of shear may have been a bit much for it. It looked like it formed on a bulge too, so gives some hope for stuff going up north of OKC.

 

[David Douglas]

From Weathertap:

The site is temporarily down for maintenance. Service will be restored shortly. We apologize for any inconvenience.

Gotta love it on a high risk day.

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

Sitting in Marysville, KS ... low deepening further south into north-central KS ... notably the dry punch is advancing northward as there is now a significant dewpoint gradient west of Russel, KS

Strong southerly flow ... car rocking around ... just have to wait for the low to deepen and the cap to break ... though the early convection SW of my location, it doesn't fit my fancy, and I am a fancy man.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Gabe, Justin, Brandon, Adam, JR, and myself are sitting in Bartlesville right now. We've tried to position far enough east of the dryline to let us adjust north - south w/o getting behind the storms, which will be a concern given forward motion.

 

[Bill Tabor]

From Weathertap:

The site is temporarily down for maintenance. Service will be restored shortly. We apologize for any inconvenience.

Gotta love it on a high risk day.
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Yep :lol: Hopefully just a server reboot.

Weathertap is back now

 

[David Douglas]

Storm motion velocities (radar indicated) look to be between 30 and 40 kts so far. If anyone in the field can confirm this, Bill Tabor and I are trying to learn some about how to determine storm motion velocities using the various model tools that are available.

Cell north of Lyons is starting to look really good now on radar.. It's the leftmost of the split cell. Moving North at 45 mph. It has rotation on SRV.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

I notice it is the left split of the storm northwest of ICT that has rapidly intensified and become severe. If this trend continues it will likely inhibit the tornado potential considerably.

 

[David Douglas]

It looks like it may split yet again.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

-4.5 to –5 MB pressure changes in central KS, right on the tip of 60+ Td’s tongue. Should see some more towers in this area just wsw of Salina. Storm motions are n or nne, so be careful when accessing storm structure and exit routes

 

[Bill Tabor]

Another thing I just noticed looking at SPC Mesoanalysis is that storms in KS and perhaps NE will have anvil level winds from almost due south. This means that southern storm anvil and precip will fall on overrun northern storms. This will make it more difficult to chase the northern storms and combine that with fast speeds - could be tough. I'd probably pick a southern or lone cell unless I had a reason to pick one further to the north of other cells.

Anvil seeding could lead to HP structure and outflow dominance of northern cells as well.

 

[Russel Parsons]

I'm sitting here in Neodesha, Kansas and I'm noticing the two storms in Nobel and Logan Counties in Oklahoma. I just might have to keep an eye on these two puppies along the dryline bulge. I think I'm in a pretty good position right where I'm. Good Luck All!

 

[Tony Laubach]

Storms look like they're trying to go in Northern Oklahoma ATTM. I think those have a better chance of remaining isolated as they seem to have a more easterly component to them as opposed to the I-70 storms in Kansas.

As Bill pointed out, the storms in Kansas will probably start facing issues of the anvils being blown into their northern cousins, in which case, you're going to quickly start to see what many of us in Kansas did on March 30.

Seems better dynamics, CAPE, and shear lie in Northern Oklahoma; those sitting in the ITC area may considering heading south and east to get in position down there early on as I fear they, too, may get lined up later as the forcing increases. However, wind fields ATTM indicate these storms will have a better time remaining isolated.