4/06/06 NOW: KS/NE/IA/MO/OK/AR/TX

Tornado Watch #154 in effect for the E. half of KS and the SE. quarter of NE until 9 PM.

Edit (1:00 PM): Looking at observations it looks like the dryline is E. of Pratt on the southern end of the watch. There really isn't a sharp dryline further north into C. and N. Kansas, but that will probably change as the low moves to the NE. Western edge of the watch is along the CU field in KS.
 
Sitting in Topeka KS, PDS box up for ks/ne. Darin Brunin, Eric B' Hymer, Jordan Wrecke and I will be heading west shortly. Good luck to all today.
 
John,

Everyone following this event knows there is a new box out. Please follow the rules and don't post uninformative posts such as this.

I've been watching the patch of growing cu in sw Kingman county, KS, which shows promise as this is leading an apparent weak mesolow, and another feature sw of OKC is starting to show some cu development as well. Did any of the Normanites stay home?

Glen
 
John,

Everyone following this event knows there is a new box out. Please follow the rules and don't post uninformative posts such as this.
mode
I've been watching the patch of growing cu in sw Kingman county, KS, which shows promise as this is leading an apparent weak mesolow, and another feature sw of OKC is starting to show some cu development as well. Did any of the Normanites stay home?

Glen
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Yeah, I'm sitting at OU just watching stuff. Not sure what to expect given these wind profiles and not sure how they will change either as the RUC has have been all over the place and my head hurts from trying to keep up.
 
John,

Everyone following this event knows there is a new box out. Please follow the rules and don't post uninformative posts such as this.

I've been watching the patch of growing cu in sw Kingman county, KS, which shows promise as this is leading an apparent weak mesolow, and another feature sw of OKC is starting to show some cu development as well. Did any of the Normanites stay home?

Glen
[/b]

Im sitting in Blanchrd Oklahoma and after considering blasting North I think I will stay put a tad longer. Dryline is jsut to the West and I wouldnt be surrprised to see something fire maybe a county West or along a line from Enid to OKC to Chickasha shortly perhaps even towards Lawton as well. Ive made my bed and its time to lie in it so ill be chasing around the OKC metro and points North and NorthEast. Basically in the area a new meso disc. just popped up. Id also keep an eye on areas along and jsut East of I-35 in SouthCentral Oklahoma later.

Also CNN is at SPC and moments ago did a special baloon release. Will be interesting to see the results.
 
Cell exploding just west of Wichita, dopplar indicated 2.25 inch hail...already! Jeez. It's also taking on a hookish shape as well.
 
Cell exploding just west of Wichita, dopplar indicated 2.25 inch hail...already! Jeez. It's also taking on a hookish shape as well.
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Yes cell in Kansas is going wild.Im sure it has golfballs at this time and initially is only tracking 30 mph but this is still a very young cell. Im sure the updraft towers are amazing.
 
Major cumulus field east of Dodge City and also in a line stretching from west of Wichita down to west of Oklahoma city. Looks like things are firing more to the west than expected. Dry line is really evident in the WV imagery in western Oklahoma.
 
The surface pressure in Hill City, Kansas is down to 990mb (from 992mb at 1713utc), and the presure in Russel is down to 990mb. Winds in Southeast Nebraska are responding and backing to the South-Southeast to Southeast. Towers are already showing up on visible along the dryline over Southern Kansas. A nice CU field had become established over North Central Kansas/South Central Nebraska. Dewpoints are still only in the lower to middle 50s across Norther Kansas/Nebraska, but strong moisture advection should aid in low 60s by early this evening. Everything seems to be coming to gether for this setup.
 
Yes cell in Kansas is going wild.Im sure it has golfballs at this time and initially is only tracking 30 mph but this is still a very young cell. Im sure the updraft towers are amazing.
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I agree. Looks like the real deal. Just north of Kingman.
 
Hopefully things get going around OKC here in a bit....looks like we're under a little bit of subsidence via WV imagery. The area of lift firing the stuff off west of Wichita should be moving in the OKC area here and maybe we'll get some explosions off the dryline. VAD profiles are much better than profilers right now, so not sure which to believe. Hopefully the dryline keeps it's pace...worried if it surges during initiation won't be getting much but towers and false hopes until much later and much farther east.

FYI...cannot see below 500 mb on the WV imagery, so you can't see the dryline.
 
Skies are clearing rapidly from the west here in Lawrence, KS. Remnants of some dead showers in the area are quickly fading.
 
I only give that tower a 50/50 shot of getting rooted, though. LCL's are a bit high there, though workable. 70kt 500mb/30kt 700mb winds shouldn't be a problem, though, with LI's ~-6/-7.

edit: top now down to 35/40k....top getting blown off too much?
 
Headed west on 54 from Fort Scott, KS. I am with Tyler Costantini, Joey Ketcham, and Matt Kassawara. Looks like a good day. Everybody be safe out there!
 
Headed west on 54 from Fort Scott, KS. I am with Tyler Costantini, Joey Ketcham, and Matt Kassawara. Looks like a good day. Everybody be safe out there!
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Sitting in Fairbury, NE right now. LCL's out here are still ridiculously high. Nice line of cu starting to show up on the sat shot just out west. May drop south a bit into KS, as the LCLs are much better down there.
 
I will be heading out from Overland Park after work (around 6pm)...I know stuff will already be going nuts (or should be going nuts) nearby. So my readiness will be delayed until I get out of work. Still favoring the Topeka area as my target. This will probably change as things start getting after it in about the next 2-3 hrs.
 
Dryline starting to bulge (centered on OKC and extending about 50 km north and south) per OK Mesonet. Slight subsidence slowly moving out of this area, so within the next hour probably have a storm formed on the north side of the bulge. Like the KS mirror split, though looks as if 60-75 kts of shear may have been a bit much for it. It looked like it formed on a bulge too, so gives some hope for stuff going up north of OKC.
 
From Weathertap:

The site is temporarily down for maintenance. Service will be restored shortly. We apologize for any inconvenience.

Gotta love it on a high risk day.
 
Sitting in Marysville, KS ... low deepening further south into north-central KS ... notably the dry punch is advancing northward as there is now a significant dewpoint gradient west of Russel, KS

Strong southerly flow ... car rocking around ... just have to wait for the low to deepen and the cap to break ... though the early convection SW of my location, it doesn't fit my fancy, and I am a fancy man.
 
Gabe, Justin, Brandon, Adam, JR, and myself are sitting in Bartlesville right now. We've tried to position far enough east of the dryline to let us adjust north - south w/o getting behind the storms, which will be a concern given forward motion.
 
From Weathertap:

The site is temporarily down for maintenance. Service will be restored shortly. We apologize for any inconvenience.

Gotta love it on a high risk day.
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Yep :lol: Hopefully just a server reboot.

Weathertap is back now
 
Storm motion velocities (radar indicated) look to be between 30 and 40 kts so far. If anyone in the field can confirm this, Bill Tabor and I are trying to learn some about how to determine storm motion velocities using the various model tools that are available.

Cell north of Lyons is starting to look really good now on radar.. It's the leftmost of the split cell. Moving North at 45 mph. It has rotation on SRV.
 
I notice it is the left split of the storm northwest of ICT that has rapidly intensified and become severe. If this trend continues it will likely inhibit the tornado potential considerably.
 
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