4/06/06 FCST: KS/NE/IA/MO/OK/AR/TX

[Scott Lincoln]

I finally got my BUFKIT profiles working, and i must say it really throws a wrench in any severe weather happening tomorrow. The dryline has almost no shear for tornadoes. At the peak heating, sites such as Topeka and Tulsa have almost no directional shear... after that, the winds go to the exact opposite of what you want for tornadoes.... near westerly at the surface and near easterly aloft. Just about the only good place for tornadoes is along the warm front in far eastern Nebraska, southwest and central Iowa, and some parts of Missouri.
Unfortunately it just not look very good for supercells along the dryline tomorrow.... maybe severe but tornadoes are not looking all that likely. They will only happen along the warm front tomorrow if we can get good heating and moisture influx for the storms to be surface based. We may all be out of luck for a big day.

 

[Daniel Christianson]

I finally got my BUFKIT profiles working, and i must say it really throws a wrench in any severe weather happening tomorrow. The dryline has almost no shear for tornadoes. At the peak heating, sites such as Topeka and Tulsa have almost no directional shear... after that, the winds go to the exact opposite of what you want for tornadoes.... near westerly at the surface and near easterly aloft. Just about the only good place for tornadoes is along the warm front in far eastern Nebraska, southwest and central Iowa, and some parts of Missouri.
Unfortunately it just not look very good for supercells along the dryline tomorrow.... maybe severe but tornadoes are not looking all that likely. They will only happen along the warm front tomorrow if we can get good heating and moisture influx for the storms to be surface based. We may all be out of luck for a big day.
[/b]

Where are you getting this? there is more then enough shear for supercells tommorow, i somehow see a lack of tornado potential but, theres alot of potential for supercells tommorow.. i feel storms will fire around the triple point and work south due to the cap down there, ? unelss things have changed is till see alot of potential tommorow...

 

[John Sickels]

OK, my prediction 18 hours out.

I think the models are overdoing the dry line punch just a bit. At 1700 the dry line in Kansas will be about halfway between Manhattan and Topeka, trailing southward. Storms fire up along the dry line and move rapidly NE/ENE just after noon. Segmented supercells at first eventually congealing into a squall line by the time they reach the eastern edge of the KC Metro. There will be several rotating cells with wall clouds, some funnels, but only one or two small tornadoes in far eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Lots and lots of hail and wind though.

Not sure about what happens in Nebraska/Iowa along the warm front. Have to study that some more.

 

[Tony Lyza]

I really couldn't agree much more with you, Alex. My extreme concern is for central/eastern MO and central AR. This forecast sounding for 0000z at Little Rock (NAM) shows why:

I'm afraid that once the moderate cap breaks, the storms will explode over NE OK/ERN KS. They will move east into an enviorment of 75-90° of directional shear in the first 5000' of the atmosphere, including an intense LLJ. To sum up:

 

[Scott Olson]

As it would happen tommorow is the only day I cannot take any time off. So, im reduced to screaming south at 4:30 to hopefully arrive in Sioux City by 6:30. With not much CINH remaining at 21z, im expecting some isolated development along the WF sometime between 22-0z. Shear/Instability looks supportive for supercells and possible tornadoes if we can get intiation. NAM forecasts 60+ Td to reach as far north as Sioux City, with 12-13C Td at 850hPa. Though, it appears that the NAM may have over-forecasted dewpoints for today for our region. Even so, the target area still appears attractive, with my main concern being intiation along the front. More likely area for storm development should be the triple point, NAM and GFS both indicate development and strong moisture convergence should be present along the low/Triple Point. As already noted, the storm motions are more reasonable than what was previously forecast, most likely in the 20-30kt range. Also worth noting that the 8km NMM WRF shows strong development from KYKN to KOAX and in other locations around 0z. With increasingly strong theta-e convergence through the 21z-0z period. So I'll take my chances even with a late departure to try and catch something towards Sioux City or Onawa, IA.

-Scott Olson

 

[Brandon Clement]

Very nice Alex . I was wondering when the the southern end of the system would be mentioned. Unfortunatly the best areas in Arkansas is right in the thick of the Ozarks. I will be monitoring everything tomorrow and if things start looking good for central Arkansas and points South and East I will be out the door. I am 3-4 hours out and last week I was watching everything and decided not to go around 2PM even though I was positive NE Ar would explode and I have been kicking myself since. This is a very tricky situation since there is a strong cap forecasted but there is also a question to how far south the dry line will be. The cap is not unbreakable in Arkansas and even extreme NE Tx but there is a possibility that storms wont begin to fire until 1800 and by the time I can make it there it will be dark in less than ideal chase terrain. It will also be interesting to see how things play out in the Ms Delta overnight into tomorrow morning. I might chase overnight if things stay active around the Ms river area because the terrain is so good and Friday is also showing some pretty nice potential over NE Ms but that is for another thread.

A line from Texarkana to Jonesboro is the area that really gets my attention with composite severe indexes near max values since an area of MUcape with values between 2000-2500 spread over SRH around 300 combined with effective shear of 50-60 knots. If the surface winds would move just a few degrees to the east the tornado threat will be maximized. If forced to pick a target now it would be near Arkadelphia. I think we will have a very strong potential for long track sups and the terrain is not too bad through most of this area. The one thing we shouldn't have to worry about tomorrow are the storms staying discrete (if they fire). I wish I could chase Ft. Smith into southern Missouri but the terrain will keep me away from that area. Good luck to everyone heading out tomorrow it will be a day to be on full alert at all times.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

Where are you getting this? there is more then enough shear for supercells tommorow, i somehow see a lack of tornado potential but, theres alot of potential for supercells tommorow.. i feel storms will fire around the triple point and work south due to the cap down there, ? unelss things have changed is till see alot of potential tommorow...
[/b]

I'm just relaying what the forecasted BUFKIT profiles show for the dryline area. I'll be looking close again at the runs that come out later tonight. Topeka and Tulsa have pretty crappy profiles. I haven't looked farther east to see how it looks for the later night storms. This year kinda seems to be the year of the afterdark tornado outbreaks, so we'll have to see how it evolves as it pushes in southern MO and AR.
Tornado threat is pretty minimal looking to me before that. Maybe supercells, but frankly the directional shear on the BUFKIT profiles looks like a generic non-favorable day.

The warm front looks like the only hope for good shear if it can form storms.
That's what the forecasted soundings are saying to me, as well as Dr Bill Gallus. He cancelled his severe weather lab tomorrow to take all of the seniors out to chase along the warm front in SW Iowa instead of the dry line.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

Scott, the reason Topeka and Tulsa probably don't look THE BEST for severe weather is because they could be west of the dry line by the time convection initiates as it should be mixing east relatively quickly. I would sample Springfield, MO or Fort Smith, AR or Little Rock, AR or maybe Branson, MO if you can get a sounding at any of those locations. Try the PSU BUFR site. Further east IMO two things will happen. First, boundary layer decoupling will lower LCLs and back winds a little as I said before. Second, LLJ will be cranking up later in the afternoon and into the evening. Looks to be the best shot at convection there.
[/b]

I have looked at the cities to the east, and they do look feasible. My point is that people shouldn't be targetting areas along a Topeka to Tulsa line along the dryline. Even before the dryline passes. You can see the moisture increase at the lower levels before the dryline passage and at the same time the winds are just sucky. I fully believe that if we have any big stuff along the dry line, it will be near or after dark just as we have had so many times already this year. The low gets stacked and if you are along the dryline near the low it isn't going to be that great. Once the dryline gets east a bit things become at least slightly favorable, but when I looked at Columbia, MO it wasn't that great, but it wasnt terrible like the places to the west.
My big thing is just that i think some are missing what is going on with the low.... sure its going to be strong but soon afterward its also going to get stacked and die quickly. Its not quite like April 11th of 2001 where the super strong low rocketed off to the east. I think alot more things are going to have to become more favorable before this becomes the huge outbreak some claim it could be.

 

[Benjamin Sipprell]

I'm just asking kindly ... I would care for some more explanation as to why the wind profiles are "sucky" ahead of the dryline ... maybe examples ... I'm just curious.

EDIT: is this based on the new 00Z NAM model?

 

[James King]

Having chased in Arkansas for over ten years (with mixed results at best), I know that the Conway-to-Little Rock corridor is often lit up; so it seems possible tomorrow. I try to leave the Hope-to-Little Rock corridor alone, and really only get excited over the Little Rock-to-Bald Knob corridor (does anyone remember Sunday?), which has more flat and less trees.
The area east of the dryline looks to be capped late, but if it breaks before dark, there will likely be some explosive development. Unfortunately, the storms will track NE into the hills rather quickly. But I am a tail-end chaser, and have done well at it, even in the limited area we have here. I'll save driving to NE or Chillicothe MO for May, thank you very much. My guess (and that's all it is, what with SO many unpredictables at this point) is that the southern end of the dryline will ever-so-slightly stall west of Fort Smith (don't know why this happens, but it often does), giving a chance to position at the Arkansas border. The bad news of this situation is that 60-70 MPH storms trending NE will get into the hills way quick. But the Arkansas River Valley is fairly wide, with decent roads. I'll set up west of Fort Smith and see what happens.
Has anyone given any thought to the possibility that a nighttime slowdown might make SW MO and NE AR a target again on Friday? 'Sbeen known to happen..

 

[Kevin Polston]

I am just starting to look at the 00Z model data....and so far I've just looked at the MSLP. Quite a change from the earlier ETA and even GFS runs regarding the strength and placement of the surface low (still quite deep though) and the location of the dryline by 00Z. Looks more potent for tornadoes now across MO with the backed sfc low. So that's my initial impression from just looking at this so far.

 

[Matthew Havin]

Looking at the 00Z models to work on a 24 hour idea here....

00Z NAM and latest FSL RUC dev runs have sub-985mb low situated near Belleville KS near the KS-NE border during the afternoon tomorrow. With a little luck....still think 2500-3000+ SBCAPE a distinct possibilty by afternoon across SE NE/NE KS. The NAM is probably not overdoing the surface moisture by saying 64+ Tds possible by 21Z across the area.......take a look at Russell KS as of 9 PM, they have 61 Td.

The RUC and the 00Z NAM seem to slow down the racing dl surge down a bit from previous runs.... with 64Td still as far west as Manhattan KS. The NAM does race the bulge down south in OK, in response to moving the sfc low slightly south from the previous run. For those chasing in Oklahoma.....good luck!

My preliminary target will be anywhere along US 77 between I-80 and I-70..... with initiation as far west as US 81 (if things fire early) and east as US 75. I will lean on staying on the Nebraska side to take advantage of TP. I think I'll head to Beatrice NE to get WiFi at Super 8...then head up to Hallam and park for the afternoon to wait for the F4. Oh wait...

 

[bbarjenbruch]

Very interesting... new 00Z NAM is out. BUFKIT analysis for Lincoln and Norfolk Nebraska is both ridiculously more favorable for tornadic development. Apparently, the warm front is now progged to stay just south of Lincoln throughout the day (it now seems to be set up loosely along the NE/KS border). Low level helicity is greatly enhanced due to the ESE winds north of the front and CAPE is still on the order of 2500+. I like it, I like it. That is my short and dirty analysis for my chase zone.

Thoughts on the dryline. If ya'll would like it to move slower, wouldn't you be hoping for a deeper LLJ overnight tonight? One of the reasons the dryline is moving so fast is because the moisture layer is quite shallow (approximately 1000 m or less in some locations). It won't take much mixing to mix the dryline to the east (drylines move in two components... mixing and advection). Just a few thoughts...

 

[Todd Rasmuson]

I would have to say after consulting with the latest data, some other top notch meteorology
friends of mine with yrs in the business, this is no doubt about it gonna be a 'MAJOR TORNADO
OUTBREAK DAY' this looks to be one which will go down as another serrious violent weather
day to start the 2006 spring tornado season in the southern plains region. attm i'm thinking
from nw arkansas into a large portion of mo has a good chance of a major tornado outbreak,
i do believe the wrn areas will have a hard time to go becouse of the capping situation say
ern ok ern ks but as the dryline moves into wrn mo, wrn ak things should explode... two
main areas of concern.. wrn, swrn mo, extreem nw ar & also the texarkana,tx area
close to the tx,ar,la statelines... those two areas need to be watched most... with ehi index
near 5 on that south end by 0z...


Todd Rasmuson & The First Alert Storm Team Blog

 

[Scott Lincoln]

I guess i wouldn't call it ridiculously more favorable. It does look pretty good, but it doesnt really look like the profile i'd normally be looking for when thinking of tornadoes / strong tornadoes. I guess it just looks mediocre to me.
Central Missouri almost looks like it has a much bigger inversion now on the latest run.
Also looks like the warm front forms some storms by evening but there isn't much formed along the dryline, which is probably that cap.

Honestly though, the models kinda seem to be inconsistant with this system, so it could end up changing back by tomorrow morning.