4/02/09 FCST: MS/AL/FL/GA/SC/NC/TN

[Brett Adair]

Looking heavily into the Starkville, MS area towards Cooridor-X into Alabama. I believe that we will get a few to several long track supercells and attendant tornadoes if the coastal convection is kept at a minimum. The dewpoints are coming up fast into Central Alabama at this hour, so I think the event is certainly possible now.

 

[beaudodson]

0z NAM data raises more questions than answers, unfortunately. I was hoping for some clarity. Dew points over in the lower 30s here in West KY at this hour (8 PM). 12z tomorrow morning the NAM shows us still in the 30s maybe 40s.

Moisture really needs to get going. Dew points at this hour are very low all the way into Louisiana.

New data also shows a bit less CAPE in Kentucky and a tad further east. Low tracks over or near Paducah or perhaps South Illinois.

It will be a nowcast day for this area - same as last Saturday. Defin not confident on how this unfolds across this region. Will be anxious to read what SPC has to say and how the moderate risk looks later tonight with all the new data.

Water vapor shows some return into TX and eastward into AL. 3 hour dewpoint changes look to be in the 5-7 degree range across portions of Texas and Alabama (as mentioned above). Still - I would really like to see this crank some more. I know moisture can move fast up the MS Valley. So, we shall see how it goes through the night.

 

[Chip Redmond]

0z NAM data raises more questions than answers, unfortunately. I was hoping for some clarity. Dew points over in the lower 30s here in West KY at this hour (8 PM). 12z tomorrow morning the NAM shows us still in the 30s maybe 40s.

Moisture really needs to get going. Dew points at this hour are very low all the way into Louisiana.

New data also shows a bit less CAPE in Kentucky and a tad further east. Low tracks over or near Paducah or perhaps South Illinois.

It will be a nowcast day for this area - same as last Saturday. Defin not confident on how this unfolds across this region. Will be anxious to read what SPC has to say and how the moderate risk looks later tonight with all the new data.

Water vapor shows some return into TX and eastward into AL. 3 hour dewpoint changes look to be in the 5-7 degree range across portions of Texas and Alabama (as mentioned above). Still - I would really like to see this crank some more. I know moisture can move fast up the MS Valley. So, we shall see how it goes through the night.

I agree. 18z was so promising and now more doubts have been thrown into the forecast. Perhaps I should learn to not make judgements off 6z or 18z runs . Hoping the LLJ will establish itself around 12z tomorrow as predicted. While LI's are still low and promising, CAPE doesn't bother me much as it is usually underplayed the last few systems, and shear remains to be great. Overall, if anything I would drop my target area slightly further south into western TN perhaps. One final thing that caught my attention is the fact that the hodographs aren't quite as impressive as earlier.

Chip

 

[Terry Tyler]

I am extremely unhappy with the latest 0Z run of the NAM. The mean 0-90MB agl cape is down compared to the last few runs and the 0-1KM EHI has come down to almost nothing. Its really beggining to look like last weeks system with some of the same limiting factors present.

With that said, LI's are up and looks like the dews are going to be straight. 0-3KM cape looks good on the wxcaster site, but i think those are older runs. Best conditions out there looks to be from around Aberdeen, MS south to around Macon, MS. That would be my guess. Like Beau said, ill be interested to see what the SPC has to say about that since im not the most educated forecaster. IMO its beggining to look alot like that system last saturday. I sure hope not.

 

[Clarence Bennett]

I agree. 18z was so promising and now more doubts have been thrown into the forecast. Perhaps I should learn to not make judgements off 6z or 18z runs . Hoping the LLJ will establish itself around 12z tomorrow as predicted. While LI's are still low and promising, CAPE doesn't bother me much as it is usually underplayed the last few systems, and shear remains to be great. Overall, if anything I would drop my target area slightly further south into western TN perhaps. One final thing that caught my attention is the fact that the hodographs aren't quite as impressive as earlier.

Chip

Chip, I wouldnt go any further west than Jackson, TN. Honestly, middle TN is looking pretty darn ripe...

 

[Tyler Yarnell]

Hmm, I'm going to be visiting Ole Miss Law School tomorrow. Might get some storm chasing in too! Anyone have any beta on the roads in the Southwestern TN/Northern MS area?

 

[Kevin Askew]

If like Saturdays system we in business as far as a triple point is concerned. the SREF is showing steady rapid moisture return looks to me by 2100. this system may be another sleeper again. im watching IR for overnight development in OK & TX. Like Beau said this is another nowcast event. Im still sticking with Jackson TN to Murray & mississippi river as target region. SLP still looks to be SO. IL maybe even further NW towards SEMO. Interesting day. SPC has toned down wording but I still have a feeling this may be a sleeper system just by how the season has started, Full of surprises! Only need an hour and a half to get to JacksonTN area & we can be out the door in 1/2 hour, so we ready.

 

[Chip Redmond]

Chip, I wouldnt go any further west than Jackson, TN. Honestly, middle TN is looking pretty darn ripe...

For instability I would agree however I think that once initiation gets started that it may go linear that far east after a few hours or so (very similar to Saturdays setup). Plus there is much more forcing farther west as its closer to the 500mb vortmax/low pressure. I'm not talking the Mississippi west, rather I suppose I made a geographical mistake as dropping south from my original target of Elizabethtown, KY would be realistically central TN.

As of now probably get to Bowling Green, KY around 1pm or so and see how things are evolving. Of course, thats pending the 12z run first and subject to change.

Chip

 

[Dave Gallaher]

Latest Day 1 puts us in a 15% hatched area, but work is probably going to keep me from being out during the greatest potential. At this point I'm pretty sure that the visibility we enjoyed with the recent system won't be repeated this time--our standard soup will likely be in place.

 

[beaudodson]

First meso-scale discussion has been issued. It is really a tough call and difficult forecast for my county area. So close to the track of the low and triple point. I have a feel it will be a few counties either way for Paducah. Last Saturday was the same way.

SPC Meso-analysis is showing a 994 low over southwest Oklahoma. Surface observations confirm a barometer reading of 993-994 over Altus, OK. So, this is a deep/wound up low, already. Impressive.

Getting reports of 50 mph winds in West TX.

Dew points and moisture continue to pull north/northwestward across Texas. I will be anxious to check out the morning satellite data and radar observations. Dew points are now in the middle 30s in West KY. Long way to go! Models show 60s by tomorrow afternoon.

Gut feeling is that the tornado threat will stay just south and east of me - but it will be a close one (but what is new).

Target somewhere around Nashville might not be bad. At least as a starting point.

 

[brody_clifton]

4/02/09 Forecast MS/AL

Very high early spring instability currently being forcasted for mid/late afternoon for much of eastern MS into western Alabama. 4/02 09Z RUC 12 hr valid 4/2 21Z is currently forecasting LI's under -12C centered along the MS/AL border with surface dewpoints from 69-72F and forecasted SBCAPE of 3500-4000 J/KG. Same RUC output for 21Z is currently forecasting a strong 500mb shortwave over eastern MS between Tupelo and Meridian with 500mb temps of -15C+ forecasted for east-central MS into west central AL at 21Z, due to the the area being in rather close proximity to the center of the mid level cyclone, forecasted to be near Texarkana at 21Z. It appears this will be a double warm front type system, and current 12 hr RUC valid 21Z still shows the southern warm front to be located as Paul said above, along an east-west line from east central MS into western AL or roughly from Louisville, MS to Tuscaloosa AL at 21Z. If this forecast verifies with the secondary warm front (and locally higher 0-1KM and 0-3KM helicities) being centered under the area of maximum instability, and on the nose/left front quadrant of the 70+ kt 500mb jet, I would fear the possibility of violent/long-track tornadoes with supercells along the warm front. To me it appears this system has the same impressive helicities but with significantly more fuel (assuming ample afternoon sunlight) than with the 3/28 system. Will watch future RUC runs to see if anything changes.

 

[Eric Graham]

Still chasing today in same target area in Ky. Still have a good feeling about this. Happen to see a tstorm prod for this afternoon and evening and it shows a massive line moving through KY, TN, and northern AR/GA. So I'm heading down within the next hour. Looking for chase partners/group to meet up and chase with send me a message if we can meet up. Good luck to all today.