3/3 FCST: Wednesday - A system to watch closely

[Mike Hardiman]

I'm a pessimist by nature. I'll always downplay an event. Needless to say, I'm cautiously optimistic about what I'm seeing, but really need to sit down with this tonight and make a decision for tomorrow.

In the meantime, I've moved my eye dr's appt from Wed to Fri, and I've checked the driving distance from ELP to Fort Stockton, TX. I can't guarauntee I'll sit this one out now.

 

[Jay McCoy]

Well I have taken the second half of wed off work so i should be on the road by noon. Looking to target midland/lubbock/hobbs triangle for now but we know how things change in 24 hrs. Just hope I can get there in time before initiation.

 

[Dan Dawson]

Keeping an eye on this one too. I really like the forecasted orientation (SW to NE) of the warm front tomorrow afternoon. Yes, as precip breaks out in the WAA regime north of the front, that will slow it down, but it currently is making some pretty decent headway, as the visible satellite loop this afternoon shows. I'd say the Eta's depiction of frontal location tomorrow afternoon is pretty reasonable. The main issue, I think, is the instability in the warm sector. That to me is the main wildcard for tomorrow's chances.

 

[Bob Schafer]

I just checked into a motel in Ft Stockton (Forgetting that there are no MSN dial-up #'s here, so I am using a calling card for access DOH!!).

I came here from Pecos, where I got out from under the stratus and drizzle after spending last night in Abilene. It is so cool to be on a boundary like that!, as fog zipped by headed westward, with the clear skies to my west, especially with the SDS raging.

I may have to move eastward some tomorrow, but I am excited.

Gotta go eat.

Bob

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

No major changes to my forecast tonight. I still expect the cold air will remain entrenched deep into west Texas. I would not be surprised to see Midland/Odessa stay in the cold air all day, but the warm air should make a run northward past the metroplex, setting up a SW-NE oriented warm front across the south plains. The forcing for upward motion will rapidly increase from west to east late in the day, so the Midland and surrounding radars should light up with strong convection above the frontal surface starting around sunset.

Whether anything can go up in the warm sector before dark is still difficult to say. Storm motion should be nearly parallel to the front, so it's a crapshoot at this hour whether any updrafts can propagate off the front into the warm sector. Shear profiles are good, but not great, for a few tornadoes. Given the late timing and orientation of the front, I'd say the SJT area is my "virtual" chase target.

Good luck to anyone who gives it a try...looks a little difficult.

 

[David Croan]

I'd like to be asleep in a Comfort Inn at Midland right now, and then, pending some real-time data in the morning, be prepared to get suckered down towards Pecos Co. The latest GFS has 500 - 700 mb delta T's of 20-22oC around FST by 0Z; suggesting that very steep lapse rates will be in place later in the evening. Also some nice upslope flow.

Good luck Bob and all who chase!

 

[Shane Adams]

Depending on the position of the warm front at departure, we're either heading southwest on I-44 to Abeline or south on I-35 to FTW. Once that decision has been made and carried out, we'll make our moves by what the front does. Ideally, I want to get south of the front into the warm sector, then creep west and hope one of those shortwaves creates some March madness.

It's a longshot, but I've cooled my jets enough. Tomorrow is the beginning of my 2004 season.

 

[Mike Hardiman]

Should I stay or Should I go?

This has been bugging me all night... the 18z and 00z models stayed consistent from their respective prior runs, but still AVN vs ETA were inconsistent.

At 500mb, AVN brings the upper low a bit farther North than the Eta (wee bit stronger too). Also noted a weak shortwave imbedded in the flow develops in far west TX (S of Guadeloupe Pass) by 00z Thursday... a weaker reflection in the Eta (weak thermal trof at h5). Vort lobe associated with this shows up INVOF Marfa (on AVN) bu 18z Wed, moves E to abt Sanderson by 00z Thu... Eta shows a weak vort lobe INVOF Marfa by 00z. Noted thermal general agreement in weak thermal ridging further North (say an axis along an AMA-DFW line)... winds generally 250@55kts.

One of the things I've been worried about is too much mid-level moisture. Noted favorable dry slot INVOF Ft Stockton on the previous (18z) runs... 00z runs show mid-level drying staying NW of Sandeson. So I'm a bit worried about clouds in the juicier air.

The farther north solution of the AVN has some implications. It develops the surface low much farther north than the ETA... this seems to tighten up the dryline a bit, and move the warm front a bit further north.

At 700mb, I couldn't help but notice the AVN brings winds almost due South across W TX, and some warmer air at h7 in W TX west of Ft Stockton. May not be an issue since this is in the mountainous terrain.

At 850... the LLJ is a bit far east (JCT-FTW line or so) for my area. This moves out by 00z.

Still need to look at a few more things... moisture depth may be a concern...?

Right now, I'm favoring the ETA with the farther south solution. This doesn't bode well for me necessarily. AVN is nicer since it brings the warm front much further north, and sharpens the dryline up a bit. I'd like to play the triple point area, and was hoping for something in a Sanderson-Ft Stockton line... but to stay ahead of the dryline, and south of the warm front (in jucier air) I may head further east. Big Lake, perhaps? I really don't want to travel too far East for a March event.

The other problem is I have virtually no data in the field since my laptop is still in New England. I have the option of dropping in at the Midland office early in the day, but as of now I think they'll be too far north, and I'd end up playing "catch-up" having to drop SE.

Midland's AFD from this afternoon indicated some hope for the warm front to move farther N... we'll see.

Any thoughts on what this system is going to do and how this warm front will behave? Where's all the discussion???

-Mike

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Mike, I know there's been some action in the StormTrack chat room (Stormchase on AustNet) tonight...

I'm thinking this would be a good chase, but the instability is just not there (well, for a significant event at least). If there can be some significant insolation that allows potential instability to build, then things could be quite good. However, the way everything is playing out right now, I think I may hold off until Thursday for south/eastern OK... and HOPE that some clearing can occur to allow for some buildup of potential instability... Shear profile are much stronger, and forcing progged by the ETA isn't as strong on the 0z run as was on the previous runs. So, there actually may a chance that, at least initially, some storms can stay discrete... more on this in the Thursday thread...

Jeff

 

[Jeff Lawson]

I'm with Kevin in thinking that the cold air is going to hang tougher than expected out west. Meanwhile, clouds and precip are going to make a mess of things in the warm sector further east. San Angelo to Fort Stockton would be my area of interest - but I'm not driving that far for an early March setup of so-so caliber.

So I'll just stick around here in DFW and get rained on. Good luck to those heading out tomorrow.

 

[Mike Hardiman]

Best instablility seems to want to hang around closer to the Rio Grande... Junction-Ozona... points South.

Still leaning towards Rankin-Big Lake for now. That way I can start off in Midland and maybe catch some data.

Clouds are definitely a concern... WV imagery seems to show some dry slotting in my area of interest for now... looks promising, but will have to see if that area shifts. Mid-level clouds (like what we had here today in ELP) would not be a good thing for surface heating.

Fog right now in Midland... warm front just south of there. WV loop showing the upper low diving south...

Current plan is to try to drag my butt out of bed around 5am tomorrow, go into the office, look at current info... and make a decision.

I can tell you that the current MSAS anaysis is well in-line with the what the 00z Eta was predicting for 06z. AVN is way out to lunch with the warm front too far north.

 

[Mike Hardiman]

Current Target is somewhere along I-10 between Ft Stockton and Sonora, TX. Will likely start off in Midland, then dip south. Still concerned about northward progression of warm front, and mid-level clouds which now look more likely to be a problem.

Good luck to all those out there!

 

[Shane Adams]

Based on several factors, the greatest of which being we don't have the funds for a marathon chase for largely-nocturnal convection, we've decided to sit this one out.

I went to bed content in thinking that moisture return would be more rapid and further north. But it's quite obvious that only a small portion of S Texas is going to get both the adequate surface instability/heating and (possibly) daytime storms. With that low hanging back in the Baja region still, I'm not confident a simple shortwave will be enough to spark the type of convection we want to see (before dark) amongst an ongoing rain event throughout the region.

If I had deep pockets (and forecast savvy) maybe I'd see a reason to take a chance.....but being as we've got $60 of chase fundage to make the week on, we're content to sit back and see how things develop for tomorrow. Either day is a gamble, but I'll take diurnal tornadic potential over terrain everytime.

I guess age and expereince is making me wise......or just a pansy :lol:

 

[Dan Cook]

I guess age and expereince is making me wise......or just a pansy :lol:

I'll go with the latter. :wink: :lol:

 

[Cstok]

I would sit at Junction.. hope I can get a connection with my cell and wait to see if things fire.

KDRT - CAPE 992 so - so
http://www.weather.unisys.com/upper_air/sk.../skew_KDRT.html