Should I stay or Should I go?
This has been bugging me all night... the 18z and 00z models stayed consistent from their respective prior runs, but still AVN vs ETA were inconsistent.
At 500mb, AVN brings the upper low a bit farther North than the Eta (wee bit stronger too). Also noted a weak shortwave imbedded in the flow develops in far west TX (S of Guadeloupe Pass) by 00z Thursday... a weaker reflection in the Eta (weak thermal trof at h5). Vort lobe associated with this shows up INVOF Marfa (on AVN) bu 18z Wed, moves E to abt Sanderson by 00z Thu... Eta shows a weak vort lobe INVOF Marfa by 00z. Noted thermal general agreement in weak thermal ridging further North (say an axis along an AMA-DFW line)... winds generally 250@55kts.
One of the things I've been worried about is too much mid-level moisture. Noted favorable dry slot INVOF Ft Stockton on the previous (18z) runs... 00z runs show mid-level drying staying NW of Sandeson. So I'm a bit worried about clouds in the juicier air.
The farther north solution of the AVN has some implications. It develops the surface low much farther north than the ETA... this seems to tighten up the dryline a bit, and move the warm front a bit further north.
At 700mb, I couldn't help but notice the AVN brings winds almost due South across W TX, and some warmer air at h7 in W TX west of Ft Stockton. May not be an issue since this is in the mountainous terrain.
At 850... the LLJ is a bit far east (JCT-FTW line or so) for my area. This moves out by 00z.
Still need to look at a few more things... moisture depth may be a concern...?
Right now, I'm favoring the ETA with the farther south solution. This doesn't bode well for me necessarily. AVN is nicer since it brings the warm front much further north, and sharpens the dryline up a bit. I'd like to play the triple point area, and was hoping for something in a Sanderson-Ft Stockton line... but to stay ahead of the dryline, and south of the warm front (in jucier air) I may head further east. Big Lake, perhaps? I really don't want to travel too far East for a March event.
The other problem is I have virtually no data in the field since my laptop is still in New England. I have the option of dropping in at the Midland office early in the day, but as of now I think they'll be too far north, and I'd end up playing "catch-up" having to drop SE.
Midland's AFD from this afternoon indicated some hope for the warm front to move farther N... we'll see.
Any thoughts on what this system is going to do and how this warm front will behave? Where's all the discussion???
-Mike