3/12/06 NOW: KS/MO

[Bart_Comstock]

The SPC has put up a new Mesoscale Discussion over most of SE Kansas, and NE Oklahoma. They are calling for very large hail, and long lived supercells with possible large and long lived tornadoes. It looks like I might get to see some action in my backyard toady. They also say that a tor watch will be issued shortly for the area.

Also, if anyone is in the Bentonville area, and needs a chase partner, I can volunteer. My ride today was unable to head out so I am stuck here in Bentonville (located in NW Ark).

 

[Mike Johnston]

Convective initiation! Cowley, Chautauqua Co Kansas to Kay and Osage Co OK - no vector yet, but keep an eye on guys to the east as these could explode!

 

[Marko Korosec]

Oh man, watch out for se KS and ne OK...vis satellite shows that things can explode pretty soon in those areas. The SPC's MD is in well position.

Since I am virtually chasing from home, I would be heading to Columbia, MO now.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

SPC has just issued Tornado Watch #73 for all of eastern Kansas and central Missouri. I am surprised that they didn't include NE Oklahoma and SE Missouri in the watch.

EDIT: I forgot to mention that the watch also covers much of central Illinois.

 

[Ronnie Bradley]

Convection beginning to fire up on the dry line on N OK (Osage county) to S Kansas (Elk County) and points in between. A SVR is on a cell in Cowley County, KS. That was fast! :shock:

 

[Matthew E. Engelbrecht]

At 18Z, the warm front continues to move N from near Wichita, KS-Ft. Scott, KS-St. Louis, MO. The dryline intersects the warm front near Wichita, KS and extends SW into OK to just W of Oklahoma City, OK.

Ongoing supercells in N MO into far W IL are in areas of high SRH well north of the warm front, however, they will begin to lose supercell characteristics as they enter less favorable kinematic and thermodynamic environments in the next couple of hours.

Further south, storms developing in NE OK and extreme SE KS are developing in an area of eroded CIN and 2 KJ/Kg SBCAPE. However, these storms are in a much less favorable environment right now with long/straight hodographs and weak SRH. Linear convection or splitting supercells would be expected in these areas.

The best region for supercell storms appears to be in east-central into northeast KS, extending into western and central MO south of the warm front over the next several hours. A prime target area through early this afternoon would be Emporia, KS-St. Joseph, MO-Chillicothe, MO-Clinton, MO-Iola, KS-Emporia, KS. It looks like anyone positioned near Kansas City, MO would be in a good position at this time.

Looks like an incipient supercell east of Emporia, KS at 1822Z.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

The SPC has modified the High Risk to now include much of far eastern Ks, and SE Mo. They have also pushed the MDT Risk back to the west a little.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

Tornado Warnings have been issued on the cell that is passing over I-35, just east of Emporia. This storm is moving NE towards the KC Metro Area, at about 45mph. The counties that are under the warnings are: Coffey, Osage, and Frankiln.

 

[nickgrillo]

Currently near Monroe City, MO... I chased the TOR-warned supercell in Ralls/Marion counties. Some decent rotation at cloud base, but the thing was blowing out cool RFDs -- but dropped some copious amounts of 1" inch hail on me.

Well, now contemplating on what to do... I'll probably head further west -- and wait for the warm front to light up.

 

[Bart_Comstock]

The SPC has posted a new Tor Watch (#74) for all of NE Ok, and NW Ark, as well as NC Ark. It does not have a PDS associated with it. I say give it about 30 min and we will start to see some t-storms start to fire up along the dry line around the I-35 corridor, between Ponca City, and Guthrie.

EDIT: Sorry, my bad. There is a PDS with #74. Thanks for pointing that out and correcting me.

 

[Alex Lamers]

Originally posted by Bart_Comstock
The SPC has posted a new Tor Watch (#74) for all of NE Ok, and NW Ark, as well as NC Ark. It does not have a PDS associated with it. I say give it about 30 min and we will start to see some t-storms start to fire up along the dry line around the I-35 corridor, between Ponca City, and Guthrie.

Correction...it DOES have PDS.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

Looks like it will start lighting up soon. Interesting cloud pattern per vissat in AR.

 

[Kevin Bowman]

Originally posted by Bart_Comstock
The SPC has posted a new Tor Watch (#74) for all of NE Ok, and NW Ark, as well as NC Ark. It does not have a PDS associated with it. I say give it about 30 min and we will start to see some t-storms start to fire up along the dry line around the I-35 corridor, between Ponca City, and Guthrie.

74 is a PDS

 

[Bart_Comstock]

Sorry about that, I didn't notice it after I clicked the on the watch. The SPC doesn't mention that it is one on their main watch page.

 

[Cstok]

Originally posted by Alex Lamers+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Alex Lamers)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Bart_Comstock

The SPC has posted a new Tor Watch (#74) for all of NE Ok, and NW Ark, as well as NC Ark. It does not have a PDS associated with it. I say give it about 30 min and we will start to see some t-storms start to fire up along the dry line around the I-35 corridor, between Ponca City, and Guthrie.

Correction...it DOES have PDS.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

Looks like it will start lighting up soon. Interesting cloud pattern per vissat in AR.[/b]

Are those cloud patterns in AR transverse roll clouds?

 

[Ronnie Bradley]

My county (White) is included in the watch. I'll be on the lookout later this eve. Too bad I have to work today