3/04/06 FCST: KS/OK/TX

[Verne Carlson]

Looking way ahead at the GFS looks like we have some potential for some storms Thurs March 2 and Fri March 3. Projecting forward a day or two, the 500mb chart shows a negatively tilted trough pulling out into the plains overspreading 850mb southeasterly winds in central KS and OK. While not great, 55 Tds get up as far north as the KS/OK border.

I'm going to go way out on a limb and say an initial target of Woodward, OK for one of these days

 

[Simon Brewer]

There is going to be a wedge-fest in the Liberal, KS area during that time period.......probably not.

The GFS is forecasting an exciting 4-5 day period of chasing possibilities late next week; I am definitely itching for a chase or two or three or more...

 

[Tom Dulong]

Originally posted by Chris Rozoff
Hey, and not a terrible amount of ensemble spread. It looks like a plausible chance for a decent severe weather producing trough to come through during that period.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spa...ag_f240_nh.html

Since forecasting this far out is a little bit of witchcraft, I will also superstitiously add that, since I am definitely committed to other duties, the outbreak of the century should occur during that period. Seriously though, given the ensemble spread, it is definitely worth keeping an eye on for those that have the time to chase. Also, a wavenumber four planetary wave pattern - often a stable configuration.

Chris

You would expect a fair amount of spread for the ensembles at 240 hours. I'd start to get more excited if the next few ensemble runs stay consistent with this one. Another concern, especially for March, is gulf moisture. I tried to get the buoy data from Oceanweather but only got the mid-gulf buoy (74.5 deg F dew). If the GFS and current ensemble are correct, a strong storm with negative tilt should allow time to tap some of the better moisture. We'll see :roll:

BTW...I hope these long term seasonal outlooks from CDC don't verify:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/seasonalfcsts/guidance.htm

 

[Tom Dulong]

Ensembles

I started a thread on ensembles over in Weather and Chasing
http://stormtrack.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=10254

 

[Jeff Snyder]

I think it'a little premature for any type of convective forecast at this time... Regardless, here's what I wrote to fellow STer:


I wouldn't put a lot of confidence in any forecast beyond 96hrs, so I haven't spent much time (nothing beyond a glance) looking at the early-March setup. In fact, looking at this morning's 12z GFS run, there doesn't appear to be any sort of organized low in the plains during the 3/3-3/9 period. There does appear to be a low in OK on 3/1 (and a low in the central Rockies on 3/9-3/10), but there's some ridging across the southern Plains (with a big low near Hudson Bay and another west of Oregon/Washington). Regardless, the big low seen on last night's 0z run certainly is not there, replaced by a building Canadian High.

But even that is bound to change. The fact of the matter is that models don't do well beyond 4-5 days (heck, we've had days where the models do horribly even 24-36 hours out), so I wouldn't get too hyped or down on any forecast at this time.

 

[Daniel Christianson]

probably in the worng thread here so i apologize, but i totally agree with Jeff on this one, ive seen many people get excited about chase chances well days out, even myself and most of the time the system craps out with potential, i mean im excited right now because id kill to chase a storm right now but conisdering this is days out things can change,, although i hope you guys are right with this one, i hope this turns out to be a chase setup...


my 2 cents.. :roll:

 

[Kevin Polston]

I think the point here is not whether the models are showing a chase day on such and such a day...but the fact that there has been some consistency in the long range which is showing a pattern suggestive of storms in the plains. Of course the details will change with each model run and as Jeff mentioned they can't be trusted very far out (even 24 hours out they can be sometimes amazingly bad). But in this case I believe we are seeing a strong enough indicator of a pattern change which is more favorable than the winter pattern we have had recently. In addition climatology is now on our side. I think this adds up to the probabilities increasing for storms in the plains.

 

[Scott A. Kampas]

I'm encouraged that the GoM continues to be rather warm: https://www.navo.navy.mil/cgi-bin/graphic.p.../126/8/0-0-10/2

 

[Rocky Rascovich]

Hooooray! I'm back!

Jumpin' Jesus Freaks! I can't believe I'm even posting on ST again...hopefully, this will work for a long time to come, I chuckled at the posts concerning my ST picnic earlier in the month, I did do all that Tim V. had suggested but to no avail. It may have had something to do with my computer which is now short of qualifying for dinosaur status. A BIG thanks to Tim Vasquez for promptly attending to the matter while at the convention in DEN last weekend!

Anyway concerning this upcoming event, I doubt this will be much of an issue here in cntrl OK.. moisture as usual will be marginal. However....
the much needed rains across north TX. this weekend will add some humidity to the air so its not entirely impossible to get some prefrontal activity that involves not just the marginal shear expected but to add to some cape too. Temps will be near 80F here in OKC on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday if the front slows down.. with dewpoints at or around 50F on Tuesday&Wednesday... a stray storm is possible, but don't look for much more than your garden variety scattered convection bringing more needed rain. Now... how 'bout the following weekend???

 

[Verne Carlson]

SPC is now showing this potential severe event on thier 4-8 Day outlook.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

From this mornings SPC 4-8 Day outlook site (thanks to Tony L for turning me on to this link!)

...DISCUSSION...
INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADING ATOP THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ENHANCED RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS FROM FRI /03 MARCH/ TO SUN /05 MARCH/ SPANNING THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE MID-MS VLY.

MOD: Remember that original supporting information MUST accompany all NWS/SPC products and discussions! Other pieces of the discussion were removed since it wasn't a "snippet" or brief copy/paste.

 

[nickgrillo]

There is a few days that I have been watching now... (not counting the IL day on the 1st, LOL) and I am confident to say that there will likely be a good chase day or two coming late this week.

Saturday still looks awesome, but the 60F isodrosotherm is pushed further south than last night (GFS had >60F Tds pushing through TOP in the 00z run) -- but it's still a way out, so I wouldn't worry too much (the gulf is still pretty prime). Saturday has an excellent wind profile -- from southeasterly flow at the surface, veering to the southwest at 700mb, with WSW flow remaining aloft at 300mb. Combined with considerable speeds at every level, will yield a very favorable vertical shear profile for supercells -- with favorable thermodynamics setting up over the warm sector as well.

BTW, Verne... No need to post the full SPC discussion :lol:

 

[Jeff Snyder]

As a reminder:

(3) Prohibited content. Users may NOT post weather bulletins and forecast images except as brief excerpts and with original supporting information. Frivolous content is prohibited.

So, you can post snippets of "official" products (SPC/NWS discussions), but you must also include "original supporting information".

 

[BrandonWhittington]

Looking at past March Chases I have been on. The majority of the thunderstorms seem to develop in the Ellis County, OK area. I Believe that storms will develop in the far NorthEast Texas Panhandle and spread into Northwestern Oklahoma. Wind profiles shows exellent shear in the atmosphere on March 3rd in this area. My only concern that I have that will limit Severe Storms is the Temperatures. I do think that the temps will stay around 60 degrees. Moisture return should not be a problem in my opinion. March 3rd is just going to be a warm up day. March 5th looks more intersting with more boundaries in place. If I was going to make a target area right now, it would have to be Follet, TX or Vici, OK.

 

[Verne Carlson]

After looking at the latest GFS run I am now leaning towards Saturday March 4th as the best day for chasing this weekend. There is a nice 997mb closed surface low in western KS at 0Z with 45-50F Tds as far north as central KS. There is diverging 500mb winds over KS with nice 30-40kt veering SE winds into the surface low. Max temps that day get up to 70F. I think if the surface low forms within the requisit 200 miles from the upper low and we get sufficient warming in the clear slot we could have a classic cold core setup as described by Jon Davies.

I think Friday afternoon bears watching for eastern CO/western KS as a Day 1 event. I think we could get some weak low-topped supercells with weak cold air funnels that we often get this time of year east of Denver.

 

[Fred Gossage]

I'm just not overly impressed with this wave....and the one behind it. Even with a Davies cold core setup.....I'd like to see dewpoints at least a little higher.

I do have the feeling, though, that these two shortwaves may be sacrificing themselves to bring the moist, unstable air northward for a system that may eject out on or after the 10th.......all is still speculation at this point, of course.