3/04/06 FCST: KS/OK/TX

Looking way ahead at the GFS looks like we have some potential for some storms Thurs March 2 and Fri March 3. Projecting forward a day or two, the 500mb chart shows a negatively tilted trough pulling out into the plains overspreading 850mb southeasterly winds in central KS and OK. While not great, 55 Tds get up as far north as the KS/OK border.

I'm going to go way out on a limb and say an initial target of Woodward, OK for one of these days :)
 
There is going to be a wedge-fest in the Liberal, KS area during that time period.......probably not.

The GFS is forecasting an exciting 4-5 day period of chasing possibilities late next week; I am definitely itching for a chase or two or three or more...
 
Originally posted by Chris Rozoff
Hey, and not a terrible amount of ensemble spread. It looks like a plausible chance for a decent severe weather producing trough to come through during that period.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/spa...ag_f240_nh.html

Since forecasting this far out is a little bit of witchcraft, I will also superstitiously add that, since I am definitely committed to other duties, the outbreak of the century should occur during that period. Seriously though, given the ensemble spread, it is definitely worth keeping an eye on for those that have the time to chase. Also, a wavenumber four planetary wave pattern - often a stable configuration.

Chris

You would expect a fair amount of spread for the ensembles at 240 hours. I'd start to get more excited if the next few ensemble runs stay consistent with this one. Another concern, especially for March, is gulf moisture. I tried to get the buoy data from Oceanweather but only got the mid-gulf buoy (74.5 deg F dew). If the GFS and current ensemble are correct, a strong storm with negative tilt should allow time to tap some of the better moisture. We'll see :roll:

BTW...I hope these long term seasonal outlooks from CDC don't verify:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/seasonalfcsts/guidance.htm
 
I think it'a little premature for any type of convective forecast at this time... Regardless, here's what I wrote to fellow STer:


I wouldn't put a lot of confidence in any forecast beyond 96hrs, so I haven't spent much time (nothing beyond a glance) looking at the early-March setup. In fact, looking at this morning's 12z GFS run, there doesn't appear to be any sort of organized low in the plains during the 3/3-3/9 period. There does appear to be a low in OK on 3/1 (and a low in the central Rockies on 3/9-3/10), but there's some ridging across the southern Plains (with a big low near Hudson Bay and another west of Oregon/Washington). Regardless, the big low seen on last night's 0z run certainly is not there, replaced by a building Canadian High.

But even that is bound to change. The fact of the matter is that models don't do well beyond 4-5 days (heck, we've had days where the models do horribly even 24-36 hours out), so I wouldn't get too hyped or down on any forecast at this time.
 
probably in the worng thread here so i apologize, but i totally agree with Jeff on this one, ive seen many people get excited about chase chances well days out, even myself and most of the time the system craps out with potential, i mean im excited right now because id kill to chase a storm right now but conisdering this is days out things can change,, although i hope you guys are right with this one, i hope this turns out to be a chase setup...


my 2 cents.. :roll:
 
I think the point here is not whether the models are showing a chase day on such and such a day...but the fact that there has been some consistency in the long range which is showing a pattern suggestive of storms in the plains. Of course the details will change with each model run and as Jeff mentioned they can't be trusted very far out (even 24 hours out they can be sometimes amazingly bad). But in this case I believe we are seeing a strong enough indicator of a pattern change which is more favorable than the winter pattern we have had recently. In addition climatology is now on our side. I think this adds up to the probabilities increasing for storms in the plains.
 
Hooooray! I'm back!

Jumpin' Jesus Freaks! I can't believe I'm even posting on ST again...hopefully, this will work for a long time to come, I chuckled at the posts concerning my ST picnic earlier in the month, I did do all that Tim V. had suggested but to no avail. It may have had something to do with my computer which is now short of qualifying for dinosaur status. A BIG thanks to Tim Vasquez for promptly attending to the matter while at the convention in DEN last weekend!

Anyway concerning this upcoming event, I doubt this will be much of an issue here in cntrl OK.. moisture as usual will be marginal. However....
the much needed rains across north TX. this weekend will add some humidity to the air so its not entirely impossible to get some prefrontal activity that involves not just the marginal shear expected but to add to some cape too. Temps will be near 80F here in OKC on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday if the front slows down.. with dewpoints at or around 50F on Tuesday&Wednesday... a stray storm is possible, but don't look for much more than your garden variety scattered convection bringing more needed rain. Now... how 'bout the following weekend???
 
SPC is now showing this potential severe event on thier 4-8 Day outlook.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

From this mornings SPC 4-8 Day outlook site (thanks to Tony L for turning me on to this link!)

...DISCUSSION...
INCREASING FLOW ALOFT AND LARGE SCALE FORCING SPREADING ATOP THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ENHANCED RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS FROM FRI /03 MARCH/ TO SUN /05 MARCH/ SPANNING THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE MID-MS VLY.

MOD: Remember that original supporting information MUST accompany all NWS/SPC products and discussions! Other pieces of the discussion were removed since it wasn't a "snippet" or brief copy/paste.
 
There is a few days that I have been watching now... (not counting the IL day on the 1st, LOL) and I am confident to say that there will likely be a good chase day or two coming late this week.

Saturday still looks awesome, but the 60F isodrosotherm is pushed further south than last night (GFS had >60F Tds pushing through TOP in the 00z run) -- but it's still a way out, so I wouldn't worry too much (the gulf is still pretty prime). Saturday has an excellent wind profile -- from southeasterly flow at the surface, veering to the southwest at 700mb, with WSW flow remaining aloft at 300mb. Combined with considerable speeds at every level, will yield a very favorable vertical shear profile for supercells -- with favorable thermodynamics setting up over the warm sector as well.

BTW, Verne... No need to post the full SPC discussion :lol:
 
As a reminder:

(3) Prohibited content. Users may NOT post weather bulletins and forecast images except as brief excerpts and with original supporting information. Frivolous content is prohibited.

So, you can post snippets of "official" products (SPC/NWS discussions), but you must also include "original supporting information".
 
Looking at past March Chases I have been on. The majority of the thunderstorms seem to develop in the Ellis County, OK area. I Believe that storms will develop in the far NorthEast Texas Panhandle and spread into Northwestern Oklahoma. Wind profiles shows exellent shear in the atmosphere on March 3rd in this area. My only concern that I have that will limit Severe Storms is the Temperatures. I do think that the temps will stay around 60 degrees. Moisture return should not be a problem in my opinion. March 3rd is just going to be a warm up day. March 5th looks more intersting with more boundaries in place. If I was going to make a target area right now, it would have to be Follet, TX or Vici, OK.
 
After looking at the latest GFS run I am now leaning towards Saturday March 4th as the best day for chasing this weekend. There is a nice 997mb closed surface low in western KS at 0Z with 45-50F Tds as far north as central KS. There is diverging 500mb winds over KS with nice 30-40kt veering SE winds into the surface low. Max temps that day get up to 70F. I think if the surface low forms within the requisit 200 miles from the upper low and we get sufficient warming in the clear slot we could have a classic cold core setup as described by Jon Davies.

I think Friday afternoon bears watching for eastern CO/western KS as a Day 1 event. I think we could get some weak low-topped supercells with weak cold air funnels that we often get this time of year east of Denver.
 
I'm just not overly impressed with this wave....and the one behind it. Even with a Davies cold core setup.....I'd like to see dewpoints at least a little higher.

I do have the feeling, though, that these two shortwaves may be sacrificing themselves to bring the moist, unstable air northward for a system that may eject out on or after the 10th.......all is still speculation at this point, of course.
 
my first post (early march chase)

I first would like to say that a lot of times a long range forecast can seem very tempting to the chaser's eye in early March. One thing someone should always consider is lack of moisture in the beginning of the season. This along with some other things, such as lack of synoptic forcing and/or instability leads to say that this weeks chasing chances are low.

Looking at the 00z Eta run the surface low will be very detached from the desired thermodynamic area, i.e. southeastern OK and north TX. While this will be the first push of gulf moisture, dewpoints will only reach the low 60's. Also to be considered are the dry conditions currently present in the forecast area. This with no real organization in winds aloft for synoptic forcing or wind profile enhancement leaves me thinking that this will be the typical first storm chase oppurtunity for the eager chaser. Which will probably resort in seeing some nice storms and possible supercells, however in most cases these storms do not produce much.
 
After taking a quick look at the 00Z GFS from tonight, I think both Friday and Saturday have some marginal potential in the southern Plains. The problem on Friday seems to be a lack of moisture, with the best moisture being south of the Red River. On Saturday, the surface and 850 mb winds veer in the warm sector, cutting back on the shear, although more moisture is present. This is obviously still pretty far out, but there is still a glimmer of hope from what I'm seeing.
 
Maybe just maybe

Saturday is beginning to look interesting to me. Some nice things seem to be coming together, however this is still not the setup I like to look for. From the 12z Eta there is a surface low setting up in the Texas panhandle. Along with it is the usual dryline, however the dewpoints only reach at max 60. Yet the Eta is forecasting 1500 J/Kg of CAPE just to the southwest of Childress. Also vertical wind shear seems to be supportive for supercells. The Eta does not however forecast convective precip or any precip over the area of greatest instabillity. So in conclusion I feel as though this is something to keep an eye on in the next few model runs.
 
So far, this event is looking marginal right now, but it is progressively looking less impressive, so I'm nowhere near sold on it, but its something to watch. I've seen Tornadoes along the dryline in 50-55 TDs and 1500 cape, but I've also seen nothing at all on those kind of days. This ETA run shows impressive shear with some backing winds with the low in TX and I've always favored the high shear days with doable instability (as I seem to always get lucky on those days).


My best guess is that we'll have a decent event and maybe even a suprising storm or two if things hold steady, but every local office seems to be trending down with the risk on Sat so far...
 
I have talked about this a little in my last post on the main page of my website ( I refuse to call it a blog :wink: ). and you can find it here .

I am not impressed with the upper air support at all. If this scenario continues, it seems to me the main 500mb jet max will be well off to the northeast before any convection has a chance to start. The NAM still forecasts 40kt at 500mb behind the jet max but subsidence concerns me there.

I too, like Chris, have seen surprising results from 55+ Tds but I think we are going to be lacking far more than just moisture with this setup, providing we continue to see these outputs and this scenario proves true. All of the indices mean nothing to me at this point because IMO it is still to far out to rely on them.

I guess if today where Saturday and I had plenty of chase money I would choose Childress as a target, but that's wishcasting and I am getting well head of myself here. :)

Mick
 
Well, my hope for chasing on Friday is gone. Most models are keeping all instability on Saturday. Saturday still has a chance. Models suggests that dewpoints in the low 60s, which is more than enough for severe storms. Cape values still appear to be low, less than 1000. My real concern is that the temperatures will not warm enough for severe storms. If models pay out, it appears that the warm front will stall around the the southeast TX Panhandle. I hate to jump the gun and all, but I do feel that there will be a very small window of opportunity of to get an isolated Supercell, in the far southeast TX Panhandle at the dryline/warm front intersection. My target area would have to be Wellington to Memphis Area. Still too early to say yes or no on chasing Saturday.
 
With each passing model run the prospects of chasing this weekend are taking a turn for the worst then look hopeful and again look worthless. This morning’s NAM run looks terrible with decreasing instability due to possible warmer temperatures aloft and marginal moisture return. I personally see the vertical shear being just fine for supporting supercells. The problem now is the fact that we may not even have a chance for surface based cells to develop.

I hate to have such a gloomy look on this system but I am not real sure there is any other way to interpret what has been given at this point. So for now a chase is off for me, but then again that could change also.

Mick
 
Just saw a slight risk for much of the western third of KS southward into the TX panhandle. Could be something to look at if you wanted to knock off the rust on a chase vehicle for next week's stuff. Minimal tornado threat due to the lack of moisture return (SPC says they may get to the 50s on dewpoints in the KS part, which may do something). Overall, this looks like a marginal hail/wind threat with maybe a tornado or two coming out of this. Almost like the setup in late January.
 
When I saw moisture progs in Western Kansas when the 84hr ETA came out several days ago, I thought some model broke out a crack pipe. Then I am awakened by a fellow excited Colorado chaser to inform me that Western Kansas was tossed into the ring for today with a 2% tornado/15% hail risk today.

Well, seeing as I already backed out of my chasing plans this weekend to work, I won't be able to enjoy a day that I would so take if I had off just cause of the proximity of it to me. However, my analysis at this time doesn't indicate to me that these 50s TDs are going to make it up...

The closest 50 degree dewpoint I see is in Lubbuck. SFC winds are in a favorable direction out of the southeast, but they're transporting the rich 30s out of Oklahoma. There are some 40s in southeast Colorado, and as my chaisng buddy said and I would agree, that's probably where I'd go today seeing as I'm not sure you're going to score much in mid 40s that may make it into Kansas, even in a cold core situation. Unfortunately, those winds are out of the southwest, converging with the SE winds along a Oakley to Garden City to Liberal line. Oddly enough, the moisture seems to be residing on the western side of this line.

Cooling aloft will aid in development, but there's still enough of a cap to have concern over. Visible sat showing clearing over the area which will definately aid in heating to convective temps, but there's a big question as to whether these storms have enough to produce. Shear looks good and CAPE looks modest, so if I had the free day, I'm sure I'd be heading that direction, but seeing as I'm not able to chase it, I don't feel too bad about missing it. One of these setups would literally come down to the opportunity of whether or not I can chase. Today, I cannot, but I won't lose sleep over it.

Best of luck to anyone trying up and down this risk area today, but I'm saving my opening trips for next week. We shall see!
 
Thick clouds are finally starting to erode away here in the Texas Panhandle. Only real concern I have today will be the lack of low level moisture. Right now, Dews are only in the low 40s or a isolated 50. My target area today will be Dalhart, TX as clouds are eroding there. Temperatures have increased about 5 degrees in the last 30 min at Dalhart and Boise City, OK. Good luck to all that chases........
 
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