2013-10-13 FCST: CO/KS/OK/TX

[Stan Rose]

Interesting and unusual setup taking shape for Sunday across the Central and Srn Plains. Unlike the last event (yesterday) the moisture return issue should be a little less problematic with southerlies clear to the Gulf as the next trough moves through western Colorado. Could see CAPE of at least 1000 spread into the panhandles and CO-KS plains by afternoon. 100+ Kt jet streak moving through NM, plenty of shear with nicely veering winds over the threat area. Expect low-topped sups to develop late afternoon near the somewhat diffuse dryline, moving east into KS and the panhandles by early eve. Relatively cool temps will result in favorable LCLs-- it aint often you see the NAM progging SigTor of 4+ over a wide area of the plains in mid October! Moisture still an issue though; the GFS much less optimistic than the NAM. But will have to watch this one closely.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Phasing - the timing of the ejection of the wave - doesn't look very promising for a severe threat on Sunday.

Monday, on the other hand, shows some potential from the TX PH NNEWD through NW OK/C KS, and into C NE. Despite better low level moisture, lapse rates just aren't very pretty, and thus CAPE is progged to be pretty low. Looks like the disturbance doesn't dip far enough south to really pick up any warm low-level air off the Mexican plateau to get any sort of EML for enhanced CAPE. I'd like to see h85 winds back a little more, but shear isn't too bad. Worth keeping an eye on.