2006 Season Review

[Laura Hedien]

Newbie 2006 Chase Statistics

CHASES - 11
MILES - 9256
AVERAGE CHASE DISTANCE - 841 miles
TORNADOES - 1 (Patricia TX May 5)
SUPERCELLS- 8
STATES CHASED - IL, IN, AR, TX, NM, NE, ND, WY, MT
LARGEST HAIL - 3.9" (m) (Mertzon TX May 4), 3" (e) (Sterling TX May 5)
STRONGEST WINDS - ~70kts (e) (Ogallala NE June 10)

Got some good pics; had a great time out on the road with friends.
That's what it's all about. Tornadoes are the icing.
At least that's what I keep telling myself....
Be safe.....
Laura

 

[John Farley]

Now that a very interesting July (much better than June!) is over, I think it is time to update the statistics:

CHASES: 12
STATES CHASED: 3: IL, MO, and NM
TORNADO DAYS: 1. possibly 2 (April 16, a very happy Easter! - and possibly July 19)
TORNADOES: 2 or 3: 2 on April 16, possibly one on July 19
FUNNEL CLOUDS: 2 (July 19 and 27)
GUSTNADOES: 2 (May 24 and [probably] June 6)
BLUE SKY BUSTS: 1 (April 14)
SUCCESS RATIO:
For tornadoes: 1 or 2 out of 12
For supercells: 3 out of 12 (plus two when I wasn't chasing)
For severe storms: 10 out of 12

All in all, I would have to say this, as of now, has turned into a better-than-average year for me, thanks to the many severe storms in IL in April and July.

All chase reports available at:

http://www.siue.edu/~jfarley/wxobs.htm

 

[Justin Walker]

I am breaking mine down into two parts:
1.) March-April, chasing for myself
2.) May-June, Forecaster for ROTATE 2006

March-April: Myself
CHASES: 9
MILES: ~5000 miles
AVG CHASE DISTANCE: 450 miles
TORNADO DAYS: 2 (March 20 and April 24)
TORNADOES: 3
SUCCESS RATIO: 2/9
STATES CHASED: KS, OK, TX, MO
MILES PER TORNADO: 1667

May-June: ROTATE, only chased May 21-June 26
CHASES: 27
MILES: ~15000 miles
AVG CHASE DISTANCE: 555 miles
TORNADO DAYS: 1 (May 31)
TORNADOES: 2
SUCCESS RATIO: 1/27
STATES CHASED: MT, WY, CO, TX, OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, IA, MO, IL
MILES PER TORNADO: 7,500 :blink:
AVG MILES PER DAY: 417

The rest of my chase summeries are here.
ROTATE 2006 summeries can be found here.

 

[mrobinett]

2006.....sucked. End of story.

 

[Matthew Havin]

2006 DID suck!

One positive note was since home base is STL, we sat out for a lot of weak events..... and for good reason since the days we didn't go out almost never produced. If I lived further west, I'm sure we would have gone out significantly more. $2.50-3.00 gas is forcing stronger decisions on these things.

Didn't chase a whole lot, went out maybe 5-6 times, drove about 3000 miles total. Short, weak year.

After splitting up the costs of chasing with friends, this year was cheap.

TOTAL COST= Less than $200

 

[Dan Robinson]

Chase days: more than 25*
First chase: April 2
Last convection chase: September 22
Last chase: December 7 (lake effect snow)
Main chase trip: May 21 to June 2
States: 14 (WV, OH, KY, IN, IL, MO, KS, NE, SD, ND, MN, WI, IA, TN)
2006 Miles: Stopped counting at 20,000
2006 expenses: At least $8,000 (gas and hotels), (over $9,000 if counting vehicle repairs)

*Most are long-distance tornado chase days - some are long-distance lightning chase days, others winter storm chases (local chases under 2-hour drives not counted)

Tornadoes: 1
Photogenic storm structure events: 4
Photogenic lightning events: 6

On a scale from 0 to 10 (10 being the best), I rate my 2006 spring season for the following:

Tornado quality/frequency: 4
Lightning quality/frequency: 7
Storm structure: 5
Imagery/video captured: 8
Cost: 3
Per-chase success: 4
Crisis impact: 2 (major breakdown, 1 flat tire)
Overall enjoyability: 8

Just for comparison, I'd rate 2005:

Tornado quality/frequency: 10
Lightning quality/frequency: 7
Storm structure: 5
Imagery/video captured: 10
Cost: 5
Per-chase success: 7
Crisis impact: 8 (1 flat tire)
Overall enjoyability: 10

And 2004:

Tornado quality/frequency: 10
Lightning quality/frequency: 7
Storm structure: 7
Imagery/video captured: 10
Cost: 6
Per-chase success: 8
Crisis impact: 10 (no problems)
Overall enjoyability: 10

 

[Andy Wehrle]

2006 was my best chase season...by virtue of being my first and only one to date. I was only able to venture on three chases, though, and two of them were sucessful only because the decision to chase was made with storms already on my doorstep (including one that was tornado-warned). My only pre-planned chase that involved a long positioning drive was a complete cap bust (June 20 to western Iowa).

2006 also featured blown opportunities...I would have chased June 6 (3 tornadoes including 1 long-lived in south-central WI) but my would-be chase partner and I both agreed that conditions were too marginal and uncertain to warrant the time and gas. On June 18 (the race-out-the-door chase based on a tornado warning) a tornado touched town within visible distance of my house (for the third time in as many years) but I would have never pegged the storm as a tornado producer without the spotter-reported warning which, by the time it went out over NOAA weather radio, the brief tornado had already lifted.

 

[cdcollura]

Here is my list of chase days from May 17 through May 31 of 2006.

First of all, I was completely solo this year. Usually I am with 3-4 others, but due to personal reasons / medical stuff, these others could not make it (I considered myself lucky - Until seeing a REX BLOCK low stall over the great lakes from about 8 days before my trip - And remain there until 1 week after the start of my trip - Then a 5 day long ridge in response to that low once it took forever to move from the great lakes)!

With gas at $3.09 a gallon, about 55% more than a year ago in 2005, I was hoping the season would be in OK, KS, TX and I would not have to move around that much, but as murphy's law put it - No! One day I would be in Ohio, the next in Kansas, the next in Colorado, then ND, then SD, but NEVER was in Texas. In 2 weeks, and with about 9,134 miles and over $1,500 in gas later, came home with some gustnadoes and maybe a brief small tornado (barely a tornado)! Lots of down time, some busts, but some scores, depending on what someone makes of it.

Fortunately, I think I was one of the "luckier ones" as Amy Grant would sing - since I was able to make the most out of, well, a glass mostly EMPTY instead of HALF FULL. Horray to the over-zealous optimist!

Anyway, see the log below for Chris Collura (SKY-CHASER) solo chase...

May 17 - Arrival day. Arrived at Oklahoma City and picked up rental vehicle. Anticipating a few days of "down time" (no storms) I decided to head east on I-44 to spend the night in St Louis, Missouri. The only possibility of weak convection also happens to be in and east of the St Louis area before activity returns to the high plains in a few days.

May 18 - Today was expected to be a total down day which the first half of which was spent in Saint Louis, Missouri killing time. By afternoon, convection began east of the area with enhanced cumulus developing. After checking data and seeing an upper air disturbance moving across eastern and central Illinois and into Indiana, I decided to investigate any convection that might develop. In low dewpoint air, and despite a stiff northwest flow at the surface and aloft, some strong thunderstorms did get going, one of which was intercepted on Interstate 70 near Brazil, Indiana. Time-lape video was also produced for the remainder of the convection. Day was wrapped up for the night in Indianapolis, Indiana. This was the farthest east I ever chased and plans are to head back west for activity in a few days back in the high plains.

May 19 - Down day, with only slight chase prospects dwindling in the extreme southern portions of Illinois and Indiana, I decided to kill more down time with a visit and stay over in Chicago, Illinois since it was about 3 hours northwest of Indianapolis. I also forecasted and found that portions of MO and Kansas may have fair to good chasing prospects for the next day (May 20).

May 20 - Cap bust day. I decided to gamble by side tracking into SW Missouri near Cassville off Interstate 44 (since I had to head back west anyways) after seeing a moderate upper-air impulse sliding SE in the NW flow aloft with a pocket of high CAPE and boundary enhanced helicity (from a stationary front across southern MO) in that region. The only thing was the 700 mb temperatures were too warm, and a capping inversion held solid from the NE side of a 500 mb thermal ridge (to my SW). Waited for any signs of development until about 6:30 PM CDT and nothing happened, despite nearly a 20 degree difference (92 in Cassville with SW winds and 73 near Carthage with SE winds, 40 miles apart). Only elevated showers were observed north of the boundary due to the upper-air disturbance and associated large-scale ascent. Headed north on highway 77 and spent the evening in Harrisonville, MO. The next day (5-21) may be a chase day in western Kansas based on looking at data that evening of May 20.

May 21 - Chase day with two thunderstorms intercepted, one a supercell near Springfield, MO and the other a strong multicell storm near Plad, MO. Today had a nearly identical setup as the one on 5-20 near Springfield, MO so after much forecasting I decided to target that area rather than head west. This time, the cap was overcome since a mid-level MCV was rotating eastward out of central Kansas and two boundaries were in place over the target area. After the interception(s), I headed back to Salina, KS for the night anticipating a drive farther west on 5-22 for possible upslope convection in NE Colorado / NW Kansas.

May 22 - Today was a chase day with good potential which did not come together fully. Began the day by leaving Salina, Kansas after looking at data and forecasting a region of convergence / upslope in NE Colorado / NW Kansas under an approaching shortwave. Headed northwest on Interstate 70 then north to first target area of Wray, Colorado near the tri-state regions of CO, NE, and KS. Storms did develop in that region, but were very high based as dewpoints never reached that region and the upper dynamics had not cleared the Rocky Mountains in time. The storms were strong thunderstorms, one exhibiting weak rotation, but did not get organized. Met up with several other chasers, including Brian Morganti and Jeff Pitrowski and even did a demo of my equipment / interview for a Brazilian film crew riding along with Brian's group. Headed back east to North Platte, NE for dinner and to spend the evening as the next day (5-23) should be another chase day farther east in Nebraska along Interstate 80.

May 23 - Chase day in southeastern South Dakota where high chase prospects wound up with an outflow dominant squall line and many intense gustnadoes. Left North Platte after forecasting and found the best target to be near Chamberlain, South Dakota and nearby areas to the southeast along Interstate 90. Initiation of storms began as expected in the target area by afternoon and continued eastward along Interstate 90 where I met up with other chasers including Tony Laubach near Kimball, SD. The storms became linear and with very strong outflow winds, but a fantastic spree of gustnadoes was caught not far from Letcher, South Dakota ahead of the squall line. The storms encountered also had strong winds and heavy rains. The chase track played the squall line looking for circulations and forward-flank mesocyclones in the gust front. Todays long chase track, once out of Nebraska and into South Dakota, contined east along Interstate 90 into extreme SW Minnesota, then south on Highway 75 into Iowa where Tony Laubach and myself spent the night in Sioux City, Iowa.

May 24 - Today was a long chase day which began early with a forecast that targeted east-central Iowa and west-central Illinois. Tony Laubach and I left Sioux City, Iowa and headed south on Interstate 29 then East on Interstate 680 and 80. We passed Des Moines, Iowa then dropped southeast on Highway 163 into Ottumwa, Iowa where we checked data and met up with a few other chasers. We continued east on Highway 34 into Illinois. With another check of data, we continued to Galesburg, Illinois then north on Interstate 74 to finally intercept developing storms southeast of Moline, Illinois. The storm briefly became a small supercell near Rock Falls, Illinois before splitting and evolving into a multicell line and gusting out. We headed southeast on Highway 52, then to Interstate 39 to wrap up the day with dinner and lodging in Bloomington-Normal, Illinois.

May 25 - Another chase day beginning with Tony Laubach and myself forecasting and targeting east-central Indiana from Indianapolis to the Ohio border as tghe primary target. We left Bloomington-Normal, Illinois and headed east into Indiana towards Indianapolis and stopped at an exit off Interstate 70 where we met another chaser, David Diehl. We continued south towards Eminance, Indiana then towards Bloomington where the first tornado-warned supercell storm was found near Elletsville, Indiana producing small funnel clouds. The storm merged into a squall line so we headed back north and around to the east side of Indianapolis to try to get ahead of the storms, but they became linear and outflow dominant. We continued to the Ohio state line and ended the chase there. I continued back west towards Inidianapolis as Dave and Tony split apart as well. As I continued west, I encountered another severe storm with a spectatular shelf cloud (also outflow dominant) near Interstate 70 near Spiceland, Indiana. The storms continued to become linear, and I wrapped up the day spending the night in Indianapolis,l Indiana.

May 26 - Today was taken to be a travel (down) day to re-position farther west anticipating the next disturbance moving into the high plains. Left Indianapolis, Indiana and headed west on Interstate 70 most of the day and spent the night in Kansas City on the Kansas side. The original plan was to pass "down time" in Chicago, Illinois but plans changed as the rule was to head west. Unfortunately, major storms were missed this day in the western Kansas region as the "new" disturbance was much stronger than forecasts and models depicted. The next day should have activity and Kansas City at least puts any new chase prospects in range.

May 27 - Today was a long shot, a real long shot, which began with a forecast pinpointing the best chance of tornadoes and severe storms in northeastern North Dakota, and I made the trip. I left Kansas City, Kansas at 8:30 AM and headed up highway 29 through Kansas / Missouri, Omaha, Nebraska (where some strong storms were passed by), Sioux City, Iowa then into South Dakota and North Dakota choosing Fargo, North Dakota for the first target. The trip took about 7 hours, and I was in Fargo by 3:30 PM. Upon checking data, the best dynamics and chance of initiation (enhanced cumulus revealed by visible satellite) was about 100 miles to my west, so I headed west on Interstate 94 and found a line of towering cumulus far off to my NW. I headed north on Highway 231 out of Jamestown, North Dakota as the towering cumulus developed into a distant building supercell storm. This storm happened to be NW of Devils Lake, and was intercepted sucessfully with large hail and a rotating wall cloud / funnels. I also decided to go the extra 20 miles to the Canada border before returning to Jamestown, ND for the night as the next day will be a chase day farther south. This day was, put aside hurricane chases, the longest chase ever in my life!

May 28 - Chase day with severe storms intercepted in SW South Dakota. Forecasted in Jamestown, North Dakota to determine today's target area. There were two prospects, one again in northeastern North Dakota (departing surface low) and another in southwestern South Dakota (lee cyclogenesis was a possibility). If the low did not develop SW of South Dakota and the low in NE North Dakota did not move, northeastern South Dakota would have been good for possible storms. I left Jamestown and targeted Aberdeen, South Dakota. Here is where I waited for quite a while, watching the SE winds there quickly go SW as a cold front surged past Pierre to my west. Meanwhile, agitated cumulus appeared on the visible satellite in both NE North Dakota and SW South Dakota, nothing in my area. After another hour or so, the cumulus to the SW kepts building, and was in far better upper-air dynamics, plus slowly backing winds, despite it being in the post-frontal air. There was a very strong cap, and that helf off anything in ND (although an isolated cell fired there). I decided to go with SW SD so I headed southwest to Pierre, then targeted Kadoka, South Dakota. Storms were building rapidly to the southwest, and finally, a violent storm (hail and high winds) was intercepted near Wanblee in the Pine Ridge Indian reservation. After intercepting the storm, it was then a long drive through severe weather along Interstate 90 until west of Kennebec, where it cleared. The night was spent in Chamberlain, South Dakota as the next days chase prospects are SE Nebraska / NE Kansas.

May 29 - Today was supposed to be a chase day farther southeast (NE Kansas / SE Nebraska) but a cold front surged ahead of all the good upper air dynamics, so a long travel day (but trying to play along the front) from Chamberlain, South Dakota down into northeastern Kansas through southeastern Nebraska, then southwest into Liberal in SW Kansas anticipating a good setup for storms on 5-30. Managed to document some dust devils in eastern Nebraska, convection along the stalled cold front in NE Kansas, as well as very interesting dryline induced convection farther in SW Kansas. Also stopped in Hallam, Nebraska along the way to check out how the town was doing after a tornado destroyed it 2 years prior on May 22, 2004. I was delighted to see most of the town rebuilt. Met up with Verne Carlson and Tony Laubach in Liberal to share a room for the night.

May 30 - Chase day in western Oklahoma area. Forecasted and left Liberal, Kansas targeting development southwest of Woordward, Oklahoma. This was a dryline type setup with an outflow boundary and stationary front to play with. An upper air disturbance passed over the target region with an increase in upper winds in the right-rear entrance region of the jet stream flow. The storm was a supercell storm that was followed down and west of Highway 283 from near Cheyenne, Oklahoma to Interstate 40 until it gusted out violently.

May 31 - Departure and travel day. No storms were intercepted today or were in range. Returned the rental vehicle and left Oklahoma City, OK to return to Fort Lauderdale, FL.

This concludes the Midwestern United States Chase Log for the first trip in May 2006. The summary includes a total of 8 severe thunderstorms, 4 strong thunderstorms, and 2 tornadoes / funnel clouds. The main chase vehicle conducting all chases was a 2007 Ford Focus rental. This information was prepared exclusively for the National Weather service and the team of Skywarn storm spotters.

Better late than never, but this season was on the low side, with lots of traveling with little "return" ;-)

See full chase log here: http://www.sky-chaser.com/mwcl2006.htm!

 

[Scott Blair]

2006 Chase Season Summary: Scott Blair

For those interested, I’ve finally completed my 2006 chase summary. The photos contained within the accounts were all taken with Kodak E100VS slide film using a 28mm lens for a large majority of the imagery. My season certainly lacked in the way of tornadoes but several days of good storm structure and photogenic scenes were observed. Enjoy!

http://www.targetarea.net/var06.html

Scott Blair
http://www.targetarea.net/

 

[Bill Tabor]

CHASES - 6
MILES - 2060
AVERAGE CHASE DISTANCE - 343
TORNADO DAYS - 2 - maybe 3
TORNADOES - 2 (possible 3rd one at night)
SUCCESS RATIO - 2 in 6 (33%) unless you count the "night torn" and then 3 in 6 or 50%
STATES CHASED - Texas, Oklahoma
BUST CHASES (no severe wx observed) - 0

Commentary: With the high cost of gas, the terrible extended weather pattern, and other issues to deal with such as health and moving I scaled back this year. However the chases I did go on were productive and enjoyable. Every year I like to learn a little better when to pull the trigger and when to stay home and desk chase.

 

[Dan Robinson]

Made some minor revisions to my earlier post (mainly as a result of 9/22), now that this thread is alive again.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Chase days ~28
Tornado days- 5 (3/12, 3/30, 4/6, 4/15, 9/16)
Tornadoes- 11
Biggest hail- baseball
Miles travelled- ~11,000
Best structure- 4/18 Chillicothe MO
Number of Energy drinks: ~140
States Chased- KS,OK, MO, NE, IA, SD
Day I wish I could have back- 9/21 cold-core (Russell tornado)
Number of times I saw Mike H -2 possibly 3
Number of times I drove to SD for partly cloudy skies- 1 (Aug 9)

 

[Mikel Shively]

Chase days-9
Miles driven-3,727
Miles/chase- 414.1
Tornado days-2
Tornadoes- 2 (Apr 2, IA and Apr 6, KS)
Sucess Ratio- 1 in 4.5
States Chased- Missouri, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Illinois

 

[Karen Politte]

My 2006 chase year in review reads as bizarre as the weather was:

CHASES - 3
MILES - 1,270 (a rough estimate using Rand McNally online - I don't really count mileage)
AVERAGE CHASE DISTANCE - 423.33 miles
TORNADO DAYS - 1
TORNADOES - 3
SUCCESS RATIO - 1:1
STATES CHASED - Arkansas, Oklahoma, Kansas
_______________

 

[Brian Stertz]

2006 chase stats - final

2006 Chase Statistics (Final)

CHASES - 10
MILES - Less than 2000
AVERAGE CHASE DISTANCE - 300 (estimated)
TORNADO DAYS - 2
TORNADOES - 4 (March 12th - Saline Co. MO...and Sept. 16 - McCook & Minnehaha Co. SD)
SUCCESS RATIO - 2 in 10 (20%)
BIG/BAD HAILBOMBS: Baseball hail March 12th, April 18th
STATES CHASED - Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Illinois, South Dakota, Minnesota
HIGH RISKS - 1
MODERATE RISKS - 5
SLIGHT RISKS - 2
BUST CHASES (no severe wx observed) - 2

http://vortex-times.com/2006chases

This will go down as probably the first year since 1988 that I have chased successfully only 10 times in a spring season. It is my alltime first for not recording any successful chases for severe wx in the months of May and June 2006 !!