2005 Storm Chasing Prediction Thread...

[Shane Adams]

Seems to me that any region who's chaseability requires constant defense is pretty telling in itself, along with the fact that every notable, recent event is easily remembered. That tells me there wasn't much to choose from. I think the main thing to remember is, it's the area that's sub-par, not the chasers.

 

[Shane Adams]

Im going to be bold and disagree with you all on the Illinois chaseability issue. I'm by no means, comparing the state to the plains, but merely stating that I dont think its a bad place to chase at all.

I'm one for one chasing ILL lifetime, batting 1.000. But that's one chase out of 179.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Shane and Andrew are both right in their own respects. Illinois is quite chaseable, but it does not compare to chasing the dryline over the Caprock and western OK/KS.

IL has enough meat and potatoes to keep its local chasers (and midwest chasers for that matter) satisfied. 4/20 was a feast handed out on a silver platter (if you kept an eye on what the weather was doing instead of making plans once the DAY1 was issued). Discreet LPish supercells lined across the state (and IN), most of which dropped. Once again though, it wasn't thanksgiving like May 12 in the Plains.

The other notable IL events of 2004 were also quite chaseable. I lost out on May 23 due to lack of data, and May 30 as well mainly because this googly eyed newbie was blinded by a barrage of tor warned linear storms. I'd love to make it out to the plains this year and see some real storms, but if I don't I think we can agree that IL is just about the next best thing.

 

[nickgrillo]

This was an amazing tornado but nearly impossible to forecast - the cell was only 30 minutes old when it produced this tornado. Chasers desire long-lived supercells that track at reasonable speeds - this storm only had the latter. After this tornado, the system rapidly evolved into a bow echo - so again - not an ideal chase scenario.

The supercell that produced the Roanoke developed HOURS before way up in NW Illinois!

The NWS was talking about the developing supercell, here....

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
954 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

ILZ001-002-007-131600-
FREEPORT-GALENA-MOUNT CARROLL-
954 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

.NOW...
A VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL EFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN JO DAVIESS AND STEPHENSON COUNTY THROUGH 11 AM. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN...AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING. TAKE COVER IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM!!

and here was the very first tornado warning on the storm...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN BUREAU COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 1221 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LIKELY TO PRODUCE A TORNADO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF LA MOILLE...OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTH OF DIXON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
LA MOILLE BY 1240 PM CDT
LADD BY 100 PM CDT
DALZELL BY 105 PM CDT

Hours later it went on to produce the F4 in Roanoke...

..Nick..

 

[Kevin Scharfenberg]

The supercell that produced the Roanoke developed HOURS before way up in NW Illinois!

That was a different supercell that passed well northeast of Roanoke. The storm in question went from initiation to tornado in about 40 minutes. The radar imagery and discussion from NWS-ILX helps: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/events/jul132004/jul13.php

This is the 0.5 degree reflectivity image from the Lincoln Doppler radar at 2:01 pm. The Roanoke storm will quickly evolve from the shower located just east of Spring Bay.
...
At 2:41 pm, the Parsons plant is being demolished by the tornado
...
At 2:56 pm, the appendage is no longer readily visible, as the storm pulls away from the Roanoke area.

Radar pictures:
2:01pm http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/events/jul1320...lx-ref1901z.png
2:41pm http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/events/jul1320...lx-ref1941z.png
2:56pm http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/events/jul1320...lx-ref1956z.png

 

[Glen Romine]

The supercell that produced the Roanoke developed HOURS before way up in NW Illinois!

Nick, you are mistaken. That is NOT the cell that produced the Roanoke F4. Go to the NWS review of this event.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/events/jul132004/jul13.php

The cell developed at 2:01 with a TVS at 2:26, and the tornado touched down at 2:34.

The cell that you are thinking of produced a lot of hail, and a brief tornado in Bureau County. Here is a nice image showing both storms.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lot/science/13Jul2...04/Lr1942za.JPG

The Roanoke cell is on the bottom left, the morning cell that you are thinking of is on the right.

Glen

 

[Robert Dewey]

Ah yes, I remember a thread in 2004 a few days after the event. If I am not mistaken, the ETA did horrible on forecasting the backed SFC winds, where as the RUC did an excellent job (the 03HR RUC, prior to the event mind you). The orinal threat appeared to be in the form of supercells with large hail and damaging wind, with perhaps a few weak tornadoes. Of course, some situations don't evolve as expected, and thus we ended of with this destructive tornado.

Also of note, I believe this is the event that killed most of the forecasted oubtreak (in the form of a squall line) over upstream areas of the Great Lakes by cooling the boundary layer over the area of anticipated initiation (southern WI/IL)... However, my dates could be confused...

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

So, really despite there being events in IL - none of these are ideal. By contrast, there were a number of ideal events elsewhere this past year.... so I'm guessing that you just haven't experienced what a really good chase is - then your standards would shun some of the events you highlighted.

Glen

Yeah...Im only 18, and have only for the past few years been able to actually get out and chase, so Illinois is all I know and can defend. Thats why I said I wasnt trying to say Illinois was better...just stating that, Illinois isn't THAT bad. This year will be the first year I'll really be chasing the plains with any regularity, and am sure that my opinion on this state will change...but for the last few years its been something I can live with.

 

[Robert Dewey]

So, really despite there being events in IL - none of these are ideal. By contrast, there were a number of ideal events elsewhere this past year.... so I'm guessing that you just haven't experienced what a really good chase is - then your standards would shun some of the events you highlighted.

Glen

Yeah...Im only 18, and have only for the past few years been able to actually get out and chase, so Illinois is all I know and can defend. Thats why I said I wasnt trying to say Illinois was better...just stating that, Illinois isn't THAT bad. This year will be the first year I'll really be chasing the plains with any regularity, and am sure that my opinion on this state will change...but for the last few years its been something I can live with.

Yes, I agree with that. Being young and/or new to chasing (i.e. one or two years of YOU driving), you take what you can get. I think it's a good thing, as it prepares you for the 'real' thing on the Plains. And, if you have the patients to chase in IL (or any other state that must be 'defended'), it will makes things a bit easier on the Plains, I am guessing. My main goal is NOT to see a tornado, or else there would be 95% failure where I am at, my goal is rather to at least witness nice structure, lightning, strong winds, etc.. But, obviously tornadoes are very nice, too :wink:

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

It is all good practice. I've been interested in chasing storms since I learned to walk and talk...but, really theres not much I could do about it until around 15 or 16 years old besides watching from home. I started by just playing around with the weaker storms in the area...but stayed at home with the more severe things, just to get a feel for how storms were out in the open, and get a feel for how I would have to play them. Then a year later I began going out close to home with storms that actually reached severe limits, but never really left the county. Then, this past season, I began chasing further out across the entire state of Illinois, and into iowa and Indiana a couple times to get a better feel for the more long distance chases. Now, having that practice in the area, I think I've finally got enough "experience" or practice to really sink myself into the whole chasing experience.

 

[ckbehnke]

The last few times it looked like there was going to be an outbreak (for example 5-30-04 and 4-11-01 it busted.

I disagree. The morning of 5-30-04 did not look good for Wisconsin. Sure the possibility was there, but to cite it as a bust is off base. Even before venturing out Saturday 5/29 in north central KS we had our decision made that central IL was going to produce on Sunday. That being said with only 3 hours of sleep for myself we made it to Peoria/Pekin just in time. Saw the nice dog-legged good contrast tornado in Woodford county. TWC had footage of it that day (not ours) for those that remember.

The good low level moisture never made it into southern WI. There were early morning storms affecting parts of northern IL on 5/30 and the atmosphere never rebounded.

As for the person that commented on the "void" in MO, I am sure its a combination of topography/road network/visiblity/less chasers. We drove through MO on I44 and I was astonished by the terrain and the amount of trees. To put things in perspective I was born and raised in northern WI.

 

[Dan Cook]

No one mentioned 5/10/03. I know that was a good day for IL chasers.

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Anytime an area is put under a high/moderate risk, and the only severe weather that occurs is one isolated hail incident, that's a busted forecast in my book.

[Broken External Image]:http://sphs.angeltowns.net/spcproductarchive/highrisk/2004/053004catD.gif

[Broken External Image]:http://sphs.angeltowns.net/spcproductarchive/highrisk/2004/053004rpts.gif

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[Jeff Snyder]

Well I duno about being that harsh about it... That's a HUGE risk area, and an error of +/- 50-100 miles for the far southern part of WI is certainly acceptable for me. I'm sure the SPC forecasters couldn't spend unlimited time on determining to the EXACT positioning of the highest risk areas on days which feature a synoptic-scale severe weather outbreak... I mean, there were 873 severe reports, which is absolutely remarkable to me.

 

[Robert Dewey]

Well I duno about being that harsh about it... That's a HUGE risk area, and an error of +/- 50-100 miles for the far southern part of WI is certainly acceptable for me. I'm sure the SPC forecasters couldn't spend unlimited time on determining to the EXACT positioning of the highest risk areas on days which feature a synoptic-scale severe weather outbreak... I mean, there were 873 severe reports, which is absolutely remarkable to me.

I have to agree, that forecast was near perfect, although it was the 2000Z outlook, so they had a head start :wink:

If any area had a botched forecast, it was areas east of the MDT and HIGH risk, where the biggest concentration of wind reports exist...