2/28/07 NOW: OK / KS

[Scott Bell]

Don't look now, but Sedalia, MO is under a tornado warning ... again (it happens to be where I grew up as well)

Edit: it was a spotted funnel about 20 miles west of town. According to my parents they have some wind and lightening but nothing too severe just south of Sedalia right now.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

The S end of that storm keeps spinning up something every 10-20 min although in the last 15 min the outflow looks to have undercut the current meso. The same thing is happening to those cells in MO.

 

[Ben McMillan]

KMBC Channel 9 is now on the air LIVE doing continuous severe weather coverage...

http://www.thekansascitychannel.com/index.html

 

[Paul Townsend]

I take cooperative weather observer data with caution, as well. However, the co-op reports outside of the local area the supercells are traversing have dewpoints of 52-53 like the ASOS stations, but locally they were 55-57. Same with the wind directions mentioned. The problem with MO ASOS is that it is about the most sparsely populated state for ASOS stations, leaving local boundaries undetected.

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Tornado Reported in Johnson Co, MO at 10:14 PM 10 min ago.

 

[Kevin Statler2]

My local Tulsa news station has unofficial reports of a fatality up in KS or MO.

 

[George Tincher]

It looks like Storm 1 (the ERN most cell) is finally starting to weaken. It should be encountering dryer air and lose the intensity it's had for the past several hours.

 

[Pete Smith]

does anyone see the "ripple" or "wave" coming of the cell crossing Henry Co., MO...is it the front or maybe outflow?

 

[Justin Walker]

does anyone see the "ripple" or "wave" coming of the cell crossing Henry Co., MO...is it the front or maybe outflow?

Outflow boundary

 

[Donald Giuliano]

I take cooperative weather observer data with caution, as well. However, the co-op reports outside of the local area the supercells are traversing have dewpoints of 52-53 like the ASOS stations, but locally they were 55-57. Same with the wind directions mentioned. The problem with MO ASOS is that it is about the most sparsely populated state for ASOS stations, leaving local boundaries undetected.

Given the latest Sedalia dewpoint of 55, I'm inclined to give the cooperative sites you cited more credence. Now the question is, how did this moist blob get there? It's almost as though a little bubble of moister air somehow formed north of or broke off from the main blob farther south. Perhaps there is moister air just above the surface associated with the nocturnal LLJ, and the vigorous convection locally mixed it down to the surface? At any rate, regardless of how it got there, putting a 55-57 dewpoint on the Topeka sounding instead of 51-53 yields more like 1000-1500 CAPE instead of 500-1000 (this latter figure being generous).

Yet another interesting facet of this most interesting evening; thanks for pointing this out, Paul. May I ask where you get the real-time cooperative data from? I'd like to look at it.

 

[Justin Bailey]

WOW! this just goes to show that its not going to take much moisture to get amazing supercells and strong tornadoes from this volitile system. if its producing this kinda stuff at night with td's 52-55, what is it goin to do tomorrow with diurinal heating and td's in the low 60's?!? these next 24+ hrs are goin to be amazing/terrifying!

 

[Jordan Hartley]

Warrensbourgh, MO is under the gun. Southern end of that cell Johnson Co is looking good again.

 

[CraigFisher]

Would think Franklin County, KS would go Torn Warn soon, rotation from Osage Co is exiting east.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Just a reminder to please keep your comments as insightful as possible. Long, in-depth posts aren't necessarily required, but something more than a sentence or two is preferable and appreciated.

My ground is still sitting in Stillwater, amazed at the lack of initiation despite very strong sfc convergence. Mesoanalysis is depicting 15-16C 850mb temps, so the cap seems to be the issue (which is a little more obvious given the lack of initiation despite very strong sfc convergence). We are starting to meander back to I35 and back towards OUN, but still keeping our fingers crossed. Somebody slap us.

EDIT: A blip watch has been issued by the Snyder Prediction Center for Garfield county for a potential blip on radar. We hold out hope! Hope of a rope.

 

[Justin Bailey]

dont give up yet Jeff! SPC just issued an MD for your area including the following statement...
STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BETWEEN 06-08Z ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF WW 36 AREA.

EDIT: two area of nice rotation evident on the cells east and SW of Ottowa. I'm guessing these are still elevated and a bit off the warm front?