2-13-05 FCST: ARKLATEX/Lower Mississippi Valley/Gulf Goast

[Andy Wehrle]

Conditional severe thunderstorm risk over this area Sunday. Big IFs are sufficient moisture return and surface heating. If those parameters fall into place and allow some instability to develop, it sounds like there could be a decent event.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/a...50213_1200.html

 

[George Tincher]

Looks like this area has been upgraded to a slight risk on the new Day 2. Wow! I never thought the words "slight risk" would strike up excitement, but I suppose after a long Winter, they indeed do!

Also, the "T" word has even been mentioned. This might be worth watching. Climatology certainly favors much of that area this time of year. And ERN AR is pretty decent terrain. But timing and daylight may be everything.

Anyway, I don't think I'm going to hold my breath or anything. But this will at least be worth watching, if only from a cyberchasing standpoint. It's definately nice to have a little something going on instead of absolutely nothing. And for those living close to this area, it might be a good time to go out and test your new equipment setups and maybe take a chance on grabbing a nader.

As they say, I suppose we'll have to stay tuned.

-George

 

[Jim Bishop]

I will be watching the Southeast Texas area radar tomorrow morning. It's all about being on the right storm (amongst all the other convection) at the right time. I expect any intense updrafts to be short lived. Given the good 0-1km shear and rich low level moisture, a shortlived tornado or two is not out of the question.