12/07 - WINTER STORM: SRN PLAINS

[Mike Peregrine]

The canoe is in the river.

...Repeat...

The canoe is in the river.


It's been snowing off and on up here this morning (drove to work in a pretty good little snow shower) - hoping to come up with some better totals tonight, at least on the south side of town. Doesn't look like it will amount to much, though. If it's going to be this dang cold, it might as well go ahead and snow as far as I'm concerned.

 

[Angie Norris]

So I'm guessing the primary reason for the winter storm watch is because we technically live in the south where flurries will bring a city to its knees and the grocery industry is in need of a pre holiday boost :wink: . Granted, the simple mention of that 4-letter S word is enough to cause a panicked run in search of bread and beverage of choice.
Just finished a bit of model peeping...maybe, just maybe we can maybe get an inch or so out of it here. NAM and GFS are both holding out until 0Z tomorrow before they bring the snow in to central OK, and they're both keeping it in the 0.1" liquid range, so I'm looking for the dry, blowy stuff that you can't even get a snowball out of.
I'm hoping to be wrong and hoping we get nailed. If we need more people on the deflector search team, I'm available 8)
Angie

 

[Mike Gauldin]

I used to live in CO and after being in OK (where people can't drive on DRY roads, nevermind with something on them) I've noticed that we tend to get more ice build-up on the roads. In CO, it's so dry that the snow can be blown off, but in OK it likes to turn to ice and don't even think of trying to drive anywhere. Plus everyone here seems to think you can do 40mph with a two-wheel drive car. I remember a couple of years ago, Christmas Eve, we got like 6" of snow in a matter of hours. Holiday rush at the mall, businesses closing down early, etc... It took me 4 hours to go 11 miles (round trip to the mall). There was literally a stalled car every 1/5th mile in alternating lanes of the roads, so everywhere was down to one lane and you had to zigzag around dead cars. I found it easier to take neighboorhood streets, but it just shows that people here aren't used to that kind of weather. Back to the topic, yeah, for OK I can see a watch. 2"-5" is more than enough for a first snow.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by OUN Winter Storm Watch
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY CREATE DANGEROUS AND
LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE HEAVY WITH THIS STORM...THE COMBINATION OF
THE FIRST WINTER PRECIPITATION EVENT OF THE SEASON AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF A LIFE-THREATENING COMBINATION OF COLD AND WIND
MAKES THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER EVENT A POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS ONE.

I'm still not sure... The current forecast seems to be for 1-3 inches, with highs in the upper teens (note that the high on 2-24-03 was 15F at OKC), and wind chills bottoming out near -10 in the northwest part of the state.

-10 is pretty cold, but it doesn't even register on the "frostbite danger" scale. It'll be pretty cold (by southern plains standards I suppose), and there may be a couple of inches of snow, but you'd think the "likelihood of life-threatening combination of cold and wind" would mean like highs near 0 (note that the highs in the northern plains will be between 0 and 10 today) and/or windchills colder than -25. Oh well, I guess it is the first winter event here this year.

 

[Chris Geelhart]

Originally posted by rdale
I'm aware of that - but watches are issued when you have a 50% chance or greater of issuing a warning. So somehow they think it is better than even odds of the 1\" or less snowfall resulting in some sort of warning, and I was wondering what warning would be valid for this type of event.

I was thwarted in my initial efforts to find out (looking for a regional supplement to NWS directive 10-513 which might list the criteria), but the overnight AFD indicated less of a chance of whatever the warning criteria is:

NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A 4 INCH AMOUNT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... BUT THINK THE BIGGEST IMPACTS WILL BE THE VERY COLD TEMPS AND BITTER WIND CHILLS. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WATCH GOING FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO AN ADVISORY SITUATION ON WEDNESDAY AS AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLDS.

Chris G.

 

[David Brookshier]

Originally posted by Karen Rhoden+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Karen Rhoden)</div>

Originally posted by Shane Adams@
<!--QuoteBegin-Aaron Kennedy

I'm gathering a party to hunt down and destroy the primary OUN deflector shield.

I'm heading up a small two-man squadron here in Dallas and will be searching for the deflecor as I trek my way back north either Wed or Thu. However, recent intelligence suggests the deflector maybe located along the gulf coast.

I'm awaiting an owl from the Ministry of Meteorology for further details. Godspeed.

Didn't you get the latest? Aaron's party was semi-successful last night. They personally scouted the grounds of the new Weather Center and found that the landscaping teams there had furtively woven deflector-strands into the lawns on the new site. Having seen the insane amount of cableage and man-hours that have gone into getting the new site up and running.......they were doing everything within their power to make sure that the next F-5 doesn't destroy their efforts!

Ahem - sorry, that's just too much. LOL.

But - for some reason - OUN's snow chances are now 60% chance of "Snow Likely" - so, something made the difference........a major victory for N.A.D.S. - Normanites Against Deflector Sheilds!!! :lol: :lol:

KR[/b]

These extreme stability generating deflectors are a threat to the entire chase community, they must be destroyed :!: Bring in some heavy artillery or M1A1 tanks. So this is why we Texas chasers have been under such a drought :shock: I am now quite certain that their is a third deflector hidden in the NWS office in Ft Worth I've heard that these things can even create upper level ridges or make a cap unbreakable, we have got to take these things out to initiate instability everywhere. :twisted:


"As it breaks the cap punch the core, shoot a meso, and bag a nado."

 

[Karen Politte]

Aaron's hunting party's hit on the newly-installed deflectors at the Weather Center has had a chain reaction effect and caused the WX-avoidance server at Tinker AFB to overheat temporarily......

Read: They just upped OUN's pops to 80% with a wx descriptions of "Snow" and a low tomorrow night of 7. Almost unheard of LOL. :shock:

KR

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by Karen Rhoden


Read: They just upped OUN's pops to 80% Almost unheard of LOL. :shock:

KR

Yes, but indicate "SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH". I guess it's better than a dusting... But hey, you should NEVER doubt the power of the Norman weather deflectors, lest you want to get burned. :lol: This event wouldn't be too bad if we some more of that elusive moisture that's evaded the region the past several months. How many flooding events did Kansas have this past spring and summer again? Like 4?

 

[David Brookshier]

Originally posted by Karen Rhoden
Aaron's hunting party's hit on the newly-installed deflectors at the Weather Center has had a chain reaction effect and caused the WX-avoidance server at Tinker AFB to overheat temporarily......

Read: They just upped OUN's pops to 80% with a wx descriptions of \"Snow\" and a low tomorrow night of 7. Almost unheard of LOL. :shock:

KR

Outstanding!!! they must have disabled the interfering deflectors (hopefully long enough) to bring about the unheard of 80% prob and low 7degree temperature. Let it snow let it snow let it snow.


"Instability=Success> As it breaks the cap punch the core, bag a nado and the chase goes on"

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Originally posted by Jeff Snyder

Yes, but indicate \"SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH\". I guess it's better than a dusting... But hey, you should NEVER doubt the power of the Norman weather deflectors, lest you want to get burned. :lol: This event wouldn't be too bad if we some more of that elusive moisture that's evaded the region the past several months. How many flooding events did Kansas have this past spring and summer again? Like 4?

Yeah, it's sad....we deserve at least 4 inches for the extreme cold we are going to have to endure tomorrow and Thursday. I demand there be a reevaluation of the models!

On a weather note, as you said, moisture has been an issue for a good part of the last 10 months, since February. Were we even to have only decent moisture for this system, we would be talking about 4-6 inches +.

 

[David Brookshier]

Originally posted by Lance Maxwell+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Lance Maxwell)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-Jeff Snyder

Yes, but indicate \"SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH\". I guess it's better than a dusting... But hey, you should NEVER doubt the power of the Norman weather deflectors, lest you want to get burned. :lol: This event wouldn't be too bad if we some more of that elusive moisture that's evaded the region the past several months. How many flooding events did Kansas have this past spring and summer again? Like 4?

Yeah, it's sad....we deserve at least 4 inches for the extreme cold we are going to have to endure tomorrow and Thursday. I demand there be a reevaluation of the models!

On a weather note, as you said, moisture has been an issue for a good part of the last 10 months, since February. Were we even to have only decent moisture for this system, we would be talking about 4-6 inches +.[/b]

Even if this system brings only 1" at least that would be a vast improvement compared to the extreme stabilty we Texas chasers have been forced to live with. If the current drought persists I'm afraid these cracks in the ground will grow so wide I'll drive right into one :!:


"Instabilty=Success> it's great to be unstable in life"

 

[Mike Peregrine]

If there is one thing I have come to believe about forecasting winter weather - it is that no one really knows what will happen until it happens. That's not to say that there's harm in trying ... I just personally don't believe in it.

I've seen one inch forecasts end up with over a foot, and 12 inch forecasts end up as a dusting. This happened just a year (maybe it was two) ago in Kansas City, where every met seemed quite confident in a heavy band setting up across the metro one winter evening that would result in over a foot of snow ... some estimates went to 15-17 inches! ... I stayed downtown that night to be closer to work ... only to wake up to see a few skiffs of dust blowing around here and there in the morning.

As with any winter weather, the anticipation is just half the fun, though ... and talking about what might happen is as much fun as it actually happening. Big winter surprises are awesome, though - - -

 

[rdale]

"it is that no one really knows what will happen until it happens."

True, but there are some who can do much better than others - just like severe weather. And we've got to put something out there. It's just some entities like to "spice things up" a bit.

The 4"-12" forecast by NWS for my area which I toned down to an inch or so turned out to be a dusting.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Highway 92 in central NE after last weeks blizzard. Photo by Crystal Day.

OK needs some of that. Would almost keep folks off the roads.

 

[Rob Satkus]

Originally posted by Karen Rhoden


........a major victory for N.A.D.S. - Normanites Against Deflector Sheilds!!! :lol: :lol:

KR

Well done N.A.D.S! I fully support your work. Go N.A.D.S. !
I am a bad boy.

RS