11/12/10 - 11/13/10 Northern Plains Winter Storm

[Jeff Miller]

A Potent and somewhat regionalized winter storm event will impact areas from NW Iowa to the Arrowhead of Minnesota mainly tonight through Thursday.

WRF high-res snowfall models and NAM indicate very aggressive moisture advection into cold air - resulting in snowfall accumulations mainly from 6 to 10" and potentially higher in areas from Storm Lake area and NE into SC Minnesota.

Winds will also be a factor with this winter storm. Snow type will be wet and heavy and will mix with and change to rain farther southeast.

Winter Storm Watches are in effect from NW Iowa Northeast through the arrowhead of Minnesota. There is the potential for localized 12" plus snowfall accumulations in the heaviest snowbands.

GFS is not as hard on accumulation totals. There will also be a sharp gradient on the NW side of the storm as it encounters drier air.

 

[Jeff Miller]

I created this map based off current radar trends, motion, and cooling... this is where I expect the heaviest snow in red. Sharp cut off to the west. This forecast looks to be falling right into shape. There is already a huge "slug" of moisture moving NNE. As the atmosphere cools and the system strengthens expect this trend to continue.

 

[Jeff Miller]

To give an idea of how tight the gradient of expected snow accumulation is, look at this incredible map:

 

[Ryan Wichman]

Great banding going on right now over the Twin Cities region. Looks like the eastern metro region is going to be hit the hardest by this deformation zone, especially if it can set-up in a N/S fashion. I would not be shocked to hear a 15" report with all of the 10+" reports already coming in.

I remember seeing a little time back that Nov. 15th is the time that the Twin Cities typically sees their first inch of accumulation....so we are a bit ahead of schedule for this one. Going to be a wet heavy snow, that is for sure.

 

[Dean Baron]

Was out shoveling snow at work and saw a flash of lightning (surprising considering it was 10 am and with the albedo of the snow). Never thought I would have to be worried about getting struck while shoveling snow. This snow is HEAVY, lots of trees and branches bending under the weight of it. Probably 6-7 inches here, looks like we may get a bit more before it's all over. This thing packed a lot more punch than I was ever expecting.

 

[Josh Richardson]

Just to give an idea of the sharp rain/snow line that Jeff was referring to previously, a couple counties over to my west you start seeing 6 inch reports all the way up to a 14 inch bullseye in Emmetsburg, IA. Over here in MCW, nothing on the ground, yeah we've had some snow mixed in but nothing more than a half inch total Im sure from yesterday until this afternoon. Was going to make the drive over to Kossuth Co. for pics if it had the returns of Emmet Co's totals but they ended up with probably 4-6 inches only so I'm just going to stay put.

See link below based of LSR's.

 

[Ryan Wichman]

System is occluding pretty good now and wringing out the remainder of its moisture. (Sorry for how crude this is...only have paint to use currently).

 

[jshields]

here in omaha, we were square in the middle of the beginning of the snowfall with this system as it moved north. heavy rain moved in from the south around 5 pm, with temps around 36-37 degrees. by 6 pm, you could see large flakes starting to mix in with the rain and by 630 the rain had switched entirely to snow. the snow came down heavy off and on for a few hours, occasionally mixing back in with rain. reports were 2-5" in about 25-30 mile wide band though east central nebraska, but increased as you headed northeast into iowa. there were several flashes of lightning during the event, and at one point up to 5000 people were without power due to fallen branches and even a couple of old trees. the link i'm including has a satellite pic the morning after showing just how narrow the band of snow was that fell in eastern nebraska, meanwhile areas on all sides only reported rain or a mix. my sister lives 30 miles west of here and had no snow at all! kind of an interesting event!!

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=oax&storyid=59738&source=0