11/08/05 NOW: Great Lakes/OH Valley

[Andrew Khan]

I wonder if Kurt, decided to go ahead and go to the cells south of him, or to just wait for the cells to cross lake Michigan, and go for them...I'm not sure.

I would think as Nick Grillo said, the major threat from MI still remains in the morning, because there is lack of instability/CAPE. The Storms in Ottowa/Alllegan counties, look pretty intense and perhaps will become linear, along with the other ones. The storms south of there...look just stationary/occluded. They look like clusters now.

 

[nickgrillo]

I agree... And just after I posted, the storm began to fall apart (pulled away from the WF)...

 

[Andrew Khan]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning has just been issued for Ottowa/Allegan counties, in Michigan. It has some very large dBZ values, at about 68-70. However, I do not see any evident rotation, there in that cell itself, maybe it will develop later. Hail looks like it might vary between small, and moderate. Largest being, perhaps 1.00 in.

 

[tom hanlon]

Well...

Here in Ohio I guess we will be getting the cells as they depart Indiana. Given the conditions here I expect that the storms may continue to be strong as they interact with the boundary generated by earlier convection.

Nightime tornadoes are not a good thing. I do however agree with the thinking that this event is getting a little overstated due to the tragedy of the Indiana Tornado a few nights ago.

A cell developed overhead as I came home and has a severe warning. This would be the hocking County warned cell out of the ILN (Wilmington OH) office. That cell is just crossing the line from ILN controlled area to RLX (Charleston WV) it also seems to be weakening so I doubt that Charleston will continue the severe warning. Seems like earlier convection is spoiling the strength of that storm.

I expect the really severe activity to be limited to NorthWestern Ohio.

Tomorrow looks to be an active day as well. What is the definition of a day here on Stormtrack ? 12AM to 12AM central or 8Z to 8Z as the SPC does things ?

Tons of rain with these storms and some sections of Ohio are getting the third storm passing in 24 hours, more to come tomorrow so flodding may be a concern.

--
Tom Hanlon

 

[Robert Dewey]

What is the definition of a day here on Stormtrack ? 12AM to 12AM central or 8Z to 8Z as the SPC does things ?

When I post, I typically follow the SPC timeframe, as it's easier...

[tyring to stay on topic]Just running over some of the data now, and none of these cells look too impressive to me. Also un-impressive is the 44F SFC temperature - somebody turn on the heat.[/trying to stay on topic]

 

[Andrew Khan]

Tornado warning in Pickaway County, OH. I doubt this will last very long at all, rotation is very small, and has turned completely linear.

 

[tom hanlon]

Tornado warning in Pickaway County, OH. I doubt this will last very long at all, rotation is very small, and has turned completely linear.

I agree that warning will not likely be continued. I doubt if that cell can strengthen much more than it has. It could surprise us though. But probably like most Ohio cells they spin once or twice and then dump a ton of rain.

--
Tom Hanlon

 

[rdale]

The joys of overnight sevwx in November forecasting ;> Capital "B" on this one. Anyways SPC is worried about stuff reforming over Michigan, but I can't see anything else happening with this pop-up crapcells the rest of the morning. While we still have elevated CAPE, and helicities that brings a tear to my eyes, I think we'll get this stuff out of here before much longer with no worries about sevwx reforming.