11/08/05 NOW: Great Lakes/OH Valley

Convective Initiation! Will open NOW thread for this very interesting day. Isolated cell over White County, Ind. w/ 55dbz core just popped up - a sign of events to come overnight, or just an anomaly?
 
It must be a slow rumble, KLOT's doppler is still in clear air mode. The position of the warm front reminds me of 4/20/04. Just give it a couple hours, and a few tiny, but dangerous supercells will pop south of CHI.
 
It must be a slow rumble, KLOT's doppler is still in clear air mode. The position of the warm front reminds me of 4/20/04. Just give it a couple hours, and a few tiny, but dangerous supercells will pop south of CHI.

that is exactly what im thinking

severe tstorm watch issued till 3am for all of northern illinois
 
Convection should slowly increase through the next few hours... With the eastward progress of the shortwave continuing and now moving into the area (IL / WI). Surface frontogenesis is occuring -- with a strengthening warm front currently lifting northward across central IL/IN... Mixed-Layer CAPE is currently 500-1000j/kg across the area. Low-level shear has increased dramtically within the past couple of hours... 0-3km SRH is currently a widespread 250-400m2/s2 across central/northern IL and IN, with the 50F SFC Td gradient currently moving into northern IL.

Any sfc-based tstms that sustain themselves near the warm front will be capable of tornadoes, very large hail and destructive winds.
 
Hopefully! I'm sitting on the warm front, here at home. I agree with you, Dave regarding 4/20/04. I'm taking things one step at a time, though.

0-1km Hel. currently 300m2/s2, LCL's 800 mtrs, 0-6 shear 55 kts. 0-1km shear 25 kts should help make up for the lack of CAPE.

Td's here in La Salle Co. in mid 50's,
 
I'll be up all night watching this, and hopefully we will see something interesting. We have not had much in the way of Severe Weather this year in Michigan. Just maybe......


Hello Nick!


 
Keep out a sharp eye just S of the watch box also. Over N KY, where pressure height lines are most perpendicular to isotherms, and therefore CAPE pooling. Severe indices building here, right around base of negatively tilted surface pressure gradient.
 
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #853 in effect untill 0300 for SouthWest Michigan......just might happen yet(I am one county outside of the watch, I am in Washtenaw County!!!

 
Tornado watch to last until 1:00 AM. Cells just blew up near Grant County, IN, with some VERY high dBZ values in the 62.5 range. I really hope this does not turn linear, already. I would really say hail is coming down hard in Grant County, size perhaps, 0.75 -- 1.00 in, or something.
 
Small line of cells is erupting from just east of Logansport to southeast of Marion, Indiana with nastiest cell in the line about to smack into Marion ATTM. Strangely enough there are no warnings with this cell. That may change shortly, however. Stuff in Indiana is already going linear; I still think northern east central Illinois is going to be the place where more isolated cells, possibly with tornadoes, are most likely to form-hopefully no late night nasty suprises like on Sunday night :(
 
Storm cluster is organizing nicely in central Indiana.. just got a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Grant and Blackburg Counties. Probably some decent sized hail in there.

EDIT: Sorry, Blackford County, not Blacksburg..
 
This just in:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BLACKFORD COUNTY IN INDIANA
SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN INDIANA

* UNTIL 945 PM EST

* AT 833 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS
SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JONESBORO...OR ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTH OF
MARION...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

Good guess on the hail size, Andrew. :)
 
There are now some faint returns that have appears in the last few scans on the MKX radar SSW of MSN down towards RFD, and some actual convection firing over Lake Michigan east of MKE into far SW Lower Michigan.

We'll see where this goes in the next 60-90 minutes...
 
This just in:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BLACKFORD COUNTY IN INDIANA
SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN INDIANA

* UNTIL 945 PM EST

* AT 833 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS
SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JONESBORO...OR ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTH OF
MARION...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

Good guess on the hail size, Andrew. :)

Thank you, Mark!


There is an area of very well defined low level rotation, in the west side of the Grant County Cell, it looks pretty strong, with a 2.4 nm radius, this seems to be a moderate place for tornado development to occur, it's very obvious on the SRV. A TVS has just been tripped as well, in the near vicinity to this rotation, it's almost in the heart of the storm.
 
The storm in Grant and Blackford Counties has wrapped up on radar over the last half hour or so. Even the storm forming to the north in Wabash County has a persistent, peculiar wind knot in the base velocity from both KIWX and KIND. The view north from Flowlerton must be something esle right now.
 
Torndo Warning has just been issued for Grant and Blackford counties, IN. I was wondering when the warning was coming out, because it looks like a hook is becoming visable.
 
Yes, please try to keep non-complaint posts to a minimum...

Storm currently in Blackford county currently showing a very nice hook echo on radar... With a nice couplet visable near Upland. Instability is pretty weak across the area... However, the storm is rooted right on the warm front which is helping it become sfc-based.

EDIT: Storm to the north is taking shape... And has been showing some nice low-level rotation the past few scans. If it continues to tighten and strengthen, a TOR should be issued for this cell soon as well...
 
What a great time for the KIWX level 2 radar to crap out. KIND still works though, and it seems like the Blackford County supercell isn't spinning quite as hard as it was a little while ago. Meanwhile, the Wabash County cell has made its way over to Huntington County, and I still think that one has some promise. It's been looking pretty decent and hovering right at the threshold for a while now.
 
Cell wrapped up pretty quick...probably due motion which is up and over the front...other side of the front is not so nice air (10 F less in T/Td), so I assume it came off the surface quick...winds need to veer a little more in the mid-levels to get storm motions more ESE and make it possible of cells to hook on the bndry...which may not happen.
 
possible initiation in rock county wisconsin, looks to be a line forming to the sw into stephenson county illinois

looks ragid on lot radar, a little better on mkx
 
Let's try to keep all posts as meteorologically-insightful as possible. Play-by-play's probably aren't necessary, and the copy and pasting of the full text of publically-available NWS products is not allowed, per the rules. If you must copy/paste something from the NWS or SPC, please make it brief, and always comment on the quote. Remember, most folks reading this thread are keeping as up-to-date about the situation as you are, so posting warnings, etc, is discouraged, unless it's really one of those "something you don't see every day" things. In other words, no need to copy/paste a product unless it's something you find particularly newsworthy (special text, etc).
 
I can't believe they have not issued a TOR warning on the Huntington/Wells County Cell, yet. It's displaying very strong low level rotation, and has developed a hook formation/appendage/extrusion. Maybe the cell moving across eastern Lake Michigan, will attach to the other cells, as well possibly making it a line.
 
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