Bill Tabor
EF5
Heads Up! Just glanced forward at the GFS which shows an approaching negatively tilted mid level trough passing through the target area on this Thursday. Right now the biggest negative I see is the apparent quick approach of the mid level system that may make it difficult for good surface cyclogenesis and definition of boundaries. This will then be further limited (according to current model run) by lack of enough time for good moisture advection with only dewpoints of 45 making it up into southern OK. However I am hoping that it may slow a bit more and give a bit more time. Plus the NAM once it starts picking up this feature may be a bit more positive on moisture return.
Additionally, somewhat difficult to determine a sfc boundary near this area as the larger front will be further north toward KS/NE, but I'm thinking that the return flow from the gulf will help to reinforce / create a more localized warm frontal boundary that will translate through the Red River area during the day. Additionally there is the approach of the trough directly to the west of DFW and apparent dryline.
The biggest positives I see are some very intense mid to upper jets and strong supporting 850mb jets and reasonable sfc flow. Already mentioned the incoming neg tilt with a very compact 500mb pva through north Tx transitioning through eastern OK up until 0Z. The mid and upper level lift should cause extensive breakout of precipitation both in OK, and TX. There is also good vertical directional shear with 850mb being somewhat weak, but 700mb very compact. 500mb shows a bit of mid level divergence over / near the DFW region in later afternoon and there is also a 300 mb jet overhead with possible left exit region possibilities as I see it.
So to repeat the biggest prob is moisture and sfc boundary / low - quality formation. If we can get the slowing of the mid level low, intensyfying of the sfc low and moisture return expect supercells with tornadoes. If not and it ends up as the GFS says now expect some widespread rain, but still some possibility of scattered supercells near the DFW/North Texas/Red River Region with possibly a few tornadoes especially further in the southern region in better moisture, along boundaries and near encroaching dryline bulge.
Disclaimer: All that said, but assuming the GFS doesn't lie and totally change as Thur approaches - LOL!
Additionally, somewhat difficult to determine a sfc boundary near this area as the larger front will be further north toward KS/NE, but I'm thinking that the return flow from the gulf will help to reinforce / create a more localized warm frontal boundary that will translate through the Red River area during the day. Additionally there is the approach of the trough directly to the west of DFW and apparent dryline.
The biggest positives I see are some very intense mid to upper jets and strong supporting 850mb jets and reasonable sfc flow. Already mentioned the incoming neg tilt with a very compact 500mb pva through north Tx transitioning through eastern OK up until 0Z. The mid and upper level lift should cause extensive breakout of precipitation both in OK, and TX. There is also good vertical directional shear with 850mb being somewhat weak, but 700mb very compact. 500mb shows a bit of mid level divergence over / near the DFW region in later afternoon and there is also a 300 mb jet overhead with possible left exit region possibilities as I see it.
So to repeat the biggest prob is moisture and sfc boundary / low - quality formation. If we can get the slowing of the mid level low, intensyfying of the sfc low and moisture return expect supercells with tornadoes. If not and it ends up as the GFS says now expect some widespread rain, but still some possibility of scattered supercells near the DFW/North Texas/Red River Region with possibly a few tornadoes especially further in the southern region in better moisture, along boundaries and near encroaching dryline bulge.
Disclaimer: All that said, but assuming the GFS doesn't lie and totally change as Thur approaches - LOL!
