09/09/10 FCST: NE/SD

[Brandon Lawson]

While the current focus is on the compact shortwave kicker that is forecast to affect the midwest region on Monday, my attention is drawn to the next trough behind it. GFS and ECMWF both have similar timing and placement with this low-pressure system, such that the northern plains could see some storms on Thursday.

One thing that I'm encouraged by is the likelihood of moisture on Thursday. Tonights' 00z GFS takes the cold front, associated with Monday's shortwave, as far south as the KS/OK border Monday night, before transitioning into a warm front on Tuesday. This could mark the beginning of a 3-day period of moisture return for the Northern Plains, as low pressure increases to the northwest.

We'll just have to watch the models for trends to see if this trough is likely to maintain its forecasted intensity, or to see if it peters out instead. For now, it has some potential.
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.ph...ng=y&sndclick=y&sounding.x=441&sounding.y=285

 

[AndyGabrielson]

Glad you brought this up Brandon, this day has had my attention for a few day now, it's obviously a ways out to narrow down any kind of target but it certainly would be easy to say looking at cape and moisture and the positioning of the system western south dakota, would once again be a potential hot bed for activity on Thursday.

 

[Brandon Lawson]

Well this is annoying. Things aren't looking as favorable as they did on last nights GFS... I believe TS Hermine, or what is left of it thru Thursday, may be having a negative effect on the lower windfields. But even more-so, the trough is taking on a more positive tilt. The more significant lobe of vorticity ejects into Saskatchewan, leaving behind a weaker postive tilt trough that's still hanging back over the western third of the country. On last nights run, this vorticity was further south, and still a part of the longwave trough.