Brandon Lawson
EF2
Don't throw in the towel just yet. The season is not over!
I've been watching as the models try and resolve this setup, and see potential for some supercells, maaybe even a couple of tornadoes on Monday. Western CONUS trough eeks out a chase day before succumbing to the strong ridge over the eastern CONUS. The GFS has been fairly consistent with its evolution of this low-pressure system and we're only 3 days out. Time for a thread!
As an embedded shortwave trough makes its passage through the northern plains on Monday, cyclogenesis should strengthen over western South Dakota, enhancing a rather impressive low-level jet by 00z. Question marks include return moisture, where >70 dewpoints are currently situated over Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and the Texas coast. Models right now are indicating sizeable temp/dewpoint temp. depressions on Monday, which would lead to significant LCL heights. This would favor large cold pools and downdrafts, as noted by the SPC, and the lack of moisture is also limiting forecasted CAPE with values lying between 1000-2000 J/kg. If this doesn't improve, the obvious solution is to stay home.
I would like to see the models trend toward a stronger surface low and better moisture return (gee that's not asking for much). The shear is already looking quite nice over portions of eastern South Dakota, but this may be too far east of where convection is likely to occur. And if everything turns into a big line, it won't matter anyway. Anytime I see a decent trough push into the plains, though, I get excited. Keeping an eye on it just in case.
I've been watching as the models try and resolve this setup, and see potential for some supercells, maaybe even a couple of tornadoes on Monday. Western CONUS trough eeks out a chase day before succumbing to the strong ridge over the eastern CONUS. The GFS has been fairly consistent with its evolution of this low-pressure system and we're only 3 days out. Time for a thread!As an embedded shortwave trough makes its passage through the northern plains on Monday, cyclogenesis should strengthen over western South Dakota, enhancing a rather impressive low-level jet by 00z. Question marks include return moisture, where >70 dewpoints are currently situated over Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and the Texas coast. Models right now are indicating sizeable temp/dewpoint temp. depressions on Monday, which would lead to significant LCL heights. This would favor large cold pools and downdrafts, as noted by the SPC, and the lack of moisture is also limiting forecasted CAPE with values lying between 1000-2000 J/kg. If this doesn't improve, the obvious solution is to stay home.
I would like to see the models trend toward a stronger surface low and better moisture return (gee that's not asking for much). The shear is already looking quite nice over portions of eastern South Dakota, but this may be too far east of where convection is likely to occur. And if everything turns into a big line, it won't matter anyway. Anytime I see a decent trough push into the plains, though, I get excited. Keeping an eye on it just in case.
