07/03/05 TALK: MIDWEST

[Chris Foltz]

Gotta agree with Rob here. Besides, I don't rely strictly on SPC to tell me the odds of a torn or where they will occur. See western NE on 6/27 or SE KS/SW MO on 6/30. They do an outstanding job for the most part but the fact of the matter is, we still can't model or predict Mother Nature perfectly. I'm thrilled to have an opportunity to chase today since it's so close to my back yard. Torns or no torns, I'll have my camera ready.....

 

[John MacKay]

I'm may go to a minor league baseball game tonight if storms don't form until later in the central to southern KS region, starting me 30 miles closer to the initiation points to the W and N of Wichita if I go. There's fireworks after the game, so I'm guaranteed to see some fireworks tonight. I'd like a 2-for-1 show.

I'm like any storm chaser, just give me a damn storm. We barely got measurable rain on the early morning hours of the 31st, first time in 17-18 days. During this time of the year, I want at least a heavy downpour, lightning, and at least 40 mph winds. That should not be a tall task given the setup and linear nature after sunset. This looks like the classic strong summer front scenario in the KS region.

I wish those of you going out later today the best of luck that you may find a wayward supercell that will produce. Knowing that most of these types of events in KS produce the token tornado warning (and at least half of those produce tornadoes) before going linear, many of you should have a shot at a tornado or two (2% torn probability on 6/30 in SE KS as well, so it's a fair chance). Otherwise, the rest of us should get ready for a good wind and lightning show.

 

[Alex Lamers]

Well SPC shifted their moderate risk way south, which as of the moment seems warranted with all the debris and convection to the north. Still...ya gotta like all the WRF runs available that actually are handling the ongoing convection (which is what spc was worried about) and they blow stuff up over KS/NE and then spread half of it northeast into iowa...n mo and eventually wisconsin. If this materializes, would NOT be surprised to see some severe wind.

Other half spreads across their current moderate risk area.

It seems like Wisconsin always gets nabbed by something surprisingly intense or just plain interesting when we are downplayed into a Slight Risk. It happened on Wednesday. It happened on June 23 2004. I think it also happened July 3 2003 although that was weakening when it got here.

Time will only tell! I still don't like how the instability is west of us here in SE WI for most of the period. However the WRF shows a pretty decent squall line organizing and at least affecting areas up to Madison.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Ben Prusia]

I see an eastward moving boundary showing up on the TWX radar located between Junction City and Topeka for those who have hope in eastern Kansas this afternoon. Cloud cover is starting to dissipate over eastern Kansas by latest satellite observations, so hopefully east Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri still got a chance, but still got many obstacles to go (like lack of 0-6km shear).

EDIT: Very ominous storm looking to be bearing down on the Great Bend area in a few minutes. Public report a funnel from this storm in eastern Rush County. Radar indicated hail signatures of 4" heading towards the northern sections of that city.

AT 130 PM...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN ABOUT 6
MILES NORTH OF OTIS IN EXTREME EASTERN RUSH COUNTY

 

[Sam Sagnella]

EDIT: Very ominous storm looking to be bearing down on the Great Bend area in a few minutes. Public report a funnel from this storm in eastern Rush County. Radar indicated hail signatures of 4" heading towards the northern sections of that city.

This storm is likely producing monstrous hail as the VILs are exceeding 90 at the moment.

radar from www.my-cast.com

 

[Alex Lamers]

It looks like its going to bow out here soon. Good broad rotational signatures aloft towards the poleward end of the line. Should get some bookend vortices going soon and the northern one will probably dominate. I'd be alert for ICT's CWA getting some wind damage.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Mike Johnston]

Talked to Philip Flory on the phone; he's in Reno Co. moving NW to try to intercept. Velocities have really escalated and then dropped down about 3 times now; have a feeling it has been producing intermitently. Looks like new appendage trying to form on the back side. Big storm.

 

[Sam Sagnella]

A quick check of local obs shows that KGBD was reporting T/Tds of 90/70 as recently as 1:35PM CDT. SPC mesoanalysis shows the storm is moving into an area with 35 kts of effective shear and 0-3km SR Helicity of 150 m2/s2, though velocity signatures are unimpressive at the moment.

------
EDIT 1: TORs reissued for this storm after a period of only SVR... storm has developed a small appendage and has started to make another right turn. Any tornado that does form from this storm will likely pass between the towns of Inman and McPherson (population ~11000), but it will be a close call with the hamlet of Elyria (I-135 exit 54).

 

[David Wagener]

Though including Oklahoma in a midwest thread is a stretch LOL...OUN has continued their very strong wording for the MCS event tonight. From what I've seen doesn't look like all the classic features are there for a derecho event, but things are still evolving. I would agree with OUN on the insane instabilities. SPC Meso has the OKC Metro area bullseyed in 6000 j/kg.

Hopefully everyone out camping this holiday weekend is paying attention.

 

[Scott Lincoln]

The LCLs in Kansas are very high. Any tornadoes that form will likely be short lived. I'm mostly concerned with the area in SW Iowa where LCLs are less than half of what they are in Kansas, and the moisture convergence and highest low level helicity match up there with the front moving in. If storms could form there, I could see tornadoes forming in that environment.

 

[Mike Johnston]

Heard a local media report out of Wichita...tornado in Arlington @ 5:20pm moving E towards Cheney Lake. Perhaps a co-op building has been hit. Tornado is evidently rain-wrapped. Grapefruit-sized hail.

Edit: Talked w/ Philip Flory - he's near Cheney reports rotating wall cloud and extremely black sky. Radar vectors keep showing NE motion, but the storm seems to be drifting SE.

 

[Justin Walker]

Yeah, that storm is an absolute beast of an HP. It is beginning to enter better air, 70's Td's. If it can stay discrete, watch out Wichita!!

Very nice S-shaped couplet on radar now, could have a violent tornado on ground now.

 

[John MacKay]

The bigger concern right now is Cheney Lake, which is dangerously close to the area of interest. I'm hoping people are getting out of there.

I was thinking that same thing. If it stays discrete, I'll be chasing in Sedgwick county shortly.

Sedgwick county now under a tornado warning. If the storm stays on more of an easterly course, we could see Wichita get hit. I'll be going to SE or SC Sedgwick county here shortly if this keeps up, as I don't want to go to Wichita for these events. I'm staying here as long as possible to get radar pictures before chasing (that may only be another five minutes).

 

[Bob Schafer]

Latest radar data from ICT now hints at some bowing of the "Cheney Lake" storm, but velocities still indicate rapid rotation, too.

The base reflectivities look to me like a storm that is going outflow dominant, but we'll see.

I have some imagery and data saved for anyone who might want it later...sat, reflectivities, VIL, velocities, echo tops, even ICT VAD. There was reflectivity >75dBZ @ 2212Z. Musta been some rather large hail.

Bob

 

[Justin Walker]

Agreed, now shows signs of that. The line of stuff catching up with it and mushing together. Wouldn't want to be in the path of that.

Also, will be hard to get reliable radar data from the cell bc it will be going over the 88d shortly.