07/03/05 TALK: MIDWEST

I want to open a talk because Sunday is looking fairly decent right now for a severe event over parts of WI/MN/IA/IL. Helicity values are in excess of 350 m2/s2 from SC to EC WI and cape is ok at around 2000 (and its much higher towards IA, but the helicity is lower in IA). LI's are fairly decent also (-6 to -8 ). I would like to see the cape and helicity high over the same area, but with it being a little too early yet, there is still time for change.

Hopefully things come together over SC/EC WI so I can have a nice backyard chase! :D

Well, you all can just quit hoping, because Im going to be in Wisconsin all weekend...and there is no way in $^@& there's going to be an outbreak while I'm in position. I'll be leaving tomorrow morning, and will be in the middle of nowhere...so TWC will be my main weather source...ewwww.

Anyway...taking a quick glance, I'd say the best area would be similar to yesterday...being around the MN/IA border...which is only a couple hours from where I will be.

Maybe I'll see some of you out there anyways...if its a MN/IA event, I will gladly accept being so close.
I think half of IL will be in WI this weekend. I also tend to have a convective-free zone around me, so maybe the double negative will produce for us.
If the 850mb winds end up veering as badly as the NAM is currently depicting, you can forget about any tornado potential. I have just glanced at things since I just got home, but I am not very excited about Sunday. I am thinking Saturday might hold some potential.
If anything does shape up in Wi or Northern IL, I'm up for the chase. If anyone needs a partner for the day PM or email me!
On the 60 hour ETA, LI of -6 to -8, cape of 2000-2500, helicity is kind of low in SC/SW WI, but its still early yet.... dewpoints are nice in the lower 70s.... getting anxious to see if it all pans out....
I think I am going to end up chasing on Sunday, but I am going to target southern Iowa. Directional shear in this area looks quite good relative to points farther North and is contributing to >50kts of deep layer shear according to the 12Z NAM. Too early to post a forecast, but I am thinking a chase is in order for Sunday since I just cancled my trip to the lake.
I'm worried about a lot of debris from overnight convection. However, if this can be resolved...I think we could see something in Wisconsin, mainly west. Best show should be across Iowa and then overnight into Missouri.

...Alex Lamers...
After looking over some data...I'm really liking tomorrow's setup over northeast KS and Northwest MO. Shear values look very impressive (on the order of 50-60 knots), and CAPE values look good too (values 3000-4000 J/KG). I think this will be a very favorable area for Supercell development, especially in the late afternoon/early evening hours. The only hurdle to jump will be the strong cap that's forecast to be in place (12-14C @ 700mb). I highly doubt that the capping will be broken early, so I wouldnt expect initiation until after 5 or 6 PM. For a target area....I'm thinking along the lines of Hiawatha KS to St. Joseph, MO, this is where the best chance for backing winds appears to be.
Well, just looked at the 36 hr ETA, and the greatest helicity values are in eastern WI, but cape is lacking there... looks like the best overall combination is in NE KS or NW MO.... I for sure won't drive that far for a one day chase, but if things look promising closer to home, I may be up for it.... I am going to pray to the tornado gods tonight.... LOL... S WI needs a tornado event bad!!! N WI got all the action this year!! Not fair because its all wooded up there. I call to all Wisconsinites to pray for a tornado day!

Update: Reviewed the models one more time and it looks like Western WI could have a couple supercells with possible tornadoes tomorrow as helicity and cape are both decently high there.... helicity values 200-250 m2/s2 and cape 3500-4000... LI isn't bad also -6 to -8. Lets see what happens on the morning runs.

It important to keep in mind that it doesn't matter where your CAPE and Helicity match up, its only important when they match up where there are going to be storms. This would normally be along some type of boundary. The chances for supercells that far east appears fairly low at this time, since it will be later in the day before storms reach that area.
Hopefully we'll see storms fire somewhere near the Nebraska/Kansas state line tomorrow, where some excellent parameters currently look to be setting up. Instability, 0-6km shear look very nice. And LCL values under 700. Could be a very interesting day in NE Kansas/SE Nebraska and then into southern Iowa/northern Missouri.
My biggest concern, like SPC mentioned, is that storms will not be isolated. Everything could go linear right after initiation. Directional shear has gotten worse over the last couple of runs. There is not much turning from 850mb and up. IMO SE Nebraska into NE Kansas is going to be the place to be, but I don't think tornadoes are going to be a good possibilty. I could be way off, but I was thinking there are two possibilities that might give chasers a shot at a tornado tomorrow. One would be a tail end storm in the KS-NE border region that could put down a tornado before storms build further South. I am also thinking there might be a window for a tornado or two in the area of backed surface winds if convection comes off the front in a broken line. One positive I see is that it does look like we will probably have some good moisture to work with tomorrow.
With the tornado outlook at 2%, and the SPC hinting the storms will go linear almost immediately after initiation, it don't look too favorable for tornadic supercells. It always is a bummer to see a moderate risk with such low tornado potential.... oh well, there's always next time!
With the tornado outlook at 2%, and the SPC hinting the storms will go linear almost immediately after initiation, it don't look too favorable for tornadic supercells. It always is a bummer to see a moderate risk with such low tornado potential.... oh well, there's always next time!

Are you a tornado chaser, or a storm chaser? I would be pretty excited to see anything severe - squall line or not. You seem to be pretty close to the threat region, so you could just intercept the thing (the best way to handle a squall line). Seems all people want to see is just tornadoes - what ever happened to good structure, shelf clouds, gust fronts, catching some intense winds, lightning shots, etc..?
Gotta agree with Rob here. Besides, I don't rely strictly on SPC to tell me the odds of a torn or where they will occur. See western NE on 6/27 or SE KS/SW MO on 6/30. They do an outstanding job for the most part but the fact of the matter is, we still can't model or predict Mother Nature perfectly. I'm thrilled to have an opportunity to chase today since it's so close to my back yard. Torns or no torns, I'll have my camera ready.....
I'm may go to a minor league baseball game tonight if storms don't form until later in the central to southern KS region, starting me 30 miles closer to the initiation points to the W and N of Wichita if I go. There's fireworks after the game, so I'm guaranteed to see some fireworks tonight. I'd like a 2-for-1 show. :)

I'm like any storm chaser, just give me a damn storm. We barely got measurable rain on the early morning hours of the 31st, first time in 17-18 days. During this time of the year, I want at least a heavy downpour, lightning, and at least 40 mph winds. That should not be a tall task given the setup and linear nature after sunset. This looks like the classic strong summer front scenario in the KS region.

I wish those of you going out later today the best of luck that you may find a wayward supercell that will produce. Knowing that most of these types of events in KS produce the token tornado warning (and at least half of those produce tornadoes) before going linear, many of you should have a shot at a tornado or two (2% torn probability on 6/30 in SE KS as well, so it's a fair chance). Otherwise, the rest of us should get ready for a good wind and lightning show.
Well SPC shifted their moderate risk way south, which as of the moment seems warranted with all the debris and convection to the north. Still...ya gotta like all the WRF runs available that actually are handling the ongoing convection (which is what spc was worried about) and they blow stuff up over KS/NE and then spread half of it northeast into iowa...n mo and eventually wisconsin. If this materializes, would NOT be surprised to see some severe wind.

Other half spreads across their current moderate risk area.

It seems like Wisconsin always gets nabbed by something surprisingly intense or just plain interesting when we are downplayed into a Slight Risk. It happened on Wednesday. It happened on June 23 2004. I think it also happened July 3 2003 although that was weakening when it got here.

Time will only tell! I still don't like how the instability is west of us here in SE WI for most of the period. However the WRF shows a pretty decent squall line organizing and at least affecting areas up to Madison.

...Alex Lamers...
I see an eastward moving boundary showing up on the TWX radar located between Junction City and Topeka for those who have hope in eastern Kansas this afternoon. Cloud cover is starting to dissipate over eastern Kansas by latest satellite observations, so hopefully east Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri still got a chance, but still got many obstacles to go (like lack of 0-6km shear).

EDIT: Very ominous storm looking to be bearing down on the Great Bend area in a few minutes. Public report a funnel from this storm in eastern Rush County. Radar indicated hail signatures of 4" heading towards the northern sections of that city.

EDIT: Very ominous storm looking to be bearing down on the Great Bend area in a few minutes. Public report a funnel from this storm in eastern Rush County. Radar indicated hail signatures of 4" heading towards the northern sections of that city.

This storm is likely producing monstrous hail as the VILs are exceeding 90 at the moment.


radar from www.my-cast.com
It looks like its going to bow out here soon. Good broad rotational signatures aloft towards the poleward end of the line. Should get some bookend vortices going soon and the northern one will probably dominate. I'd be alert for ICT's CWA getting some wind damage.

...Alex Lamers...
Talked to Philip Flory on the phone; he's in Reno Co. moving NW to try to intercept. Velocities have really escalated and then dropped down about 3 times now; have a feeling it has been producing intermitently. Looks like new appendage trying to form on the back side. Big storm.
A quick check of local obs shows that KGBD was reporting T/Tds of 90/70 as recently as 1:35PM CDT. SPC mesoanalysis shows the storm is moving into an area with 35 kts of effective shear and 0-3km SR Helicity of 150 m2/s2, though velocity signatures are unimpressive at the moment.

EDIT 1: TORs reissued for this storm after a period of only SVR... storm has developed a small appendage and has started to make another right turn. Any tornado that does form from this storm will likely pass between the towns of Inman and McPherson (population ~11000), but it will be a close call with the hamlet of Elyria (I-135 exit 54).

Though including Oklahoma in a midwest thread is a stretch LOL...OUN has continued their very strong wording for the MCS event tonight. From what I've seen doesn't look like all the classic features are there for a derecho event, but things are still evolving. I would agree with OUN on the insane instabilities. SPC Meso has the OKC Metro area bullseyed in 6000 j/kg.

Hopefully everyone out camping this holiday weekend is paying attention.
The LCLs in Kansas are very high. Any tornadoes that form will likely be short lived. I'm mostly concerned with the area in SW Iowa where LCLs are less than half of what they are in Kansas, and the moisture convergence and highest low level helicity match up there with the front moving in. If storms could form there, I could see tornadoes forming in that environment.