07/03/05 TALK: MIDWEST

[Tim Gonyo]

I want to open a talk because Sunday is looking fairly decent right now for a severe event over parts of WI/MN/IA/IL. Helicity values are in excess of 350 m2/s2 from SC to EC WI and cape is ok at around 2000 (and its much higher towards IA, but the helicity is lower in IA). LI's are fairly decent also (-6 to -8 ). I would like to see the cape and helicity high over the same area, but with it being a little too early yet, there is still time for change.

Hopefully things come together over SC/EC WI so I can have a nice backyard chase!

-Tim

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Well, you all can just quit hoping, because Im going to be in Wisconsin all weekend...and there is no way in $^@& there's going to be an outbreak while I'm in position. I'll be leaving tomorrow morning, and will be in the middle of nowhere...so TWC will be my main weather source...ewwww.

Anyway...taking a quick glance, I'd say the best area would be similar to yesterday...being around the MN/IA border...which is only a couple hours from where I will be.

Maybe I'll see some of you out there anyways...if its a MN/IA event, I will gladly accept being so close.

 

[J West]

I think half of IL will be in WI this weekend. I also tend to have a convective-free zone around me, so maybe the double negative will produce for us.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

If the 850mb winds end up veering as badly as the NAM is currently depicting, you can forget about any tornado potential. I have just glanced at things since I just got home, but I am not very excited about Sunday. I am thinking Saturday might hold some potential.

 

[Jacque Tiegs]

If anything does shape up in Wi or Northern IL, I'm up for the chase. If anyone needs a partner for the day PM or email me!

 

[Tim Gonyo]

On the 60 hour ETA, LI of -6 to -8, cape of 2000-2500, helicity is kind of low in SC/SW WI, but its still early yet.... dewpoints are nice in the lower 70s.... getting anxious to see if it all pans out....

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I think I am going to end up chasing on Sunday, but I am going to target southern Iowa. Directional shear in this area looks quite good relative to points farther North and is contributing to >50kts of deep layer shear according to the 12Z NAM. Too early to post a forecast, but I am thinking a chase is in order for Sunday since I just cancled my trip to the lake.

 

[Alex Lamers]

I'm worried about a lot of debris from overnight convection. However, if this can be resolved...I think we could see something in Wisconsin, mainly west. Best show should be across Iowa and then overnight into Missouri.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Anthony Silver]

After looking over some data...I'm really liking tomorrow's setup over northeast KS and Northwest MO. Shear values look very impressive (on the order of 50-60 knots), and CAPE values look good too (values 3000-4000 J/KG). I think this will be a very favorable area for Supercell development, especially in the late afternoon/early evening hours. The only hurdle to jump will be the strong cap that's forecast to be in place (12-14C @ 700mb). I highly doubt that the capping will be broken early, so I wouldnt expect initiation until after 5 or 6 PM. For a target area....I'm thinking along the lines of Hiawatha KS to St. Joseph, MO, this is where the best chance for backing winds appears to be.

 

[Tim Gonyo]

Well, just looked at the 36 hr ETA, and the greatest helicity values are in eastern WI, but cape is lacking there... looks like the best overall combination is in NE KS or NW MO.... I for sure won't drive that far for a one day chase, but if things look promising closer to home, I may be up for it.... I am going to pray to the tornado gods tonight.... LOL... S WI needs a tornado event bad!!! N WI got all the action this year!! Not fair because its all wooded up there. I call to all Wisconsinites to pray for a tornado day!


Update: Reviewed the models one more time and it looks like Western WI could have a couple supercells with possible tornadoes tomorrow as helicity and cape are both decently high there.... helicity values 200-250 m2/s2 and cape 3500-4000... LI isn't bad also -6 to -8. Lets see what happens on the morning runs.

-Tim

 

[Scott Lincoln]

It important to keep in mind that it doesn't matter where your CAPE and Helicity match up, its only important when they match up where there are going to be storms. This would normally be along some type of boundary. The chances for supercells that far east appears fairly low at this time, since it will be later in the day before storms reach that area.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Hopefully we'll see storms fire somewhere near the Nebraska/Kansas state line tomorrow, where some excellent parameters currently look to be setting up. Instability, 0-6km shear look very nice. And LCL values under 700. Could be a very interesting day in NE Kansas/SE Nebraska and then into southern Iowa/northern Missouri.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

My biggest concern, like SPC mentioned, is that storms will not be isolated. Everything could go linear right after initiation. Directional shear has gotten worse over the last couple of runs. There is not much turning from 850mb and up. IMO SE Nebraska into NE Kansas is going to be the place to be, but I don't think tornadoes are going to be a good possibilty. I could be way off, but I was thinking there are two possibilities that might give chasers a shot at a tornado tomorrow. One would be a tail end storm in the KS-NE border region that could put down a tornado before storms build further South. I am also thinking there might be a window for a tornado or two in the area of backed surface winds if convection comes off the front in a broken line. One positive I see is that it does look like we will probably have some good moisture to work with tomorrow.

 

[Tim Gonyo]

With the tornado outlook at 2%, and the SPC hinting the storms will go linear almost immediately after initiation, it don't look too favorable for tornadic supercells. It always is a bummer to see a moderate risk with such low tornado potential.... oh well, there's always next time!

 

[Robert Dewey]

With the tornado outlook at 2%, and the SPC hinting the storms will go linear almost immediately after initiation, it don't look too favorable for tornadic supercells. It always is a bummer to see a moderate risk with such low tornado potential.... oh well, there's always next time!

Are you a tornado chaser, or a storm chaser? I would be pretty excited to see anything severe - squall line or not. You seem to be pretty close to the threat region, so you could just intercept the thing (the best way to handle a squall line). Seems all people want to see is just tornadoes - what ever happened to good structure, shelf clouds, gust fronts, catching some intense winds, lightning shots, etc..?