06/24/04 FCST: KS, Ohio Valley, MS, NY

Larry J. Kosch

Opening a FCST thread as NWS has posted a SWW for lower part of MS.
Also NWS is having MSC discussions about issuing SWWs for KS, the Ohio Valley and NY.
Post your forecast discussions here. 8) LJK.
My chase partner just left Columbus OH to see what that line of storms on the Ohio Indiana border has to offer. Will try and see what the tail end activity of the line looks like. Also the new storm popping up E of Indianapolis may grow into something. Not hoping for much but stuff like today is more or less what Ohio has to offer so we take what we can get. Keeping an eye on the radar and hoping for things to strengthen somewhat. At least that part of Ohio is sparsely populated and has decent visibility for chasing.
Tail End Charlie??

That tail end charlie storm crossing the Indiana-Ohio border west of Dayton OH is showing super cell characteristics. It has separated itself from the rest of the line and has grown circular and bigger. Won't be surprised if this storm is severe warned and possible tornadic activity too.

Will be starting a NOW thread very shortly.

8) LJK.
I think today, and moreso yesterday, could have been REALLY big events if deeper moisture/better instability was in place. This system was/is very intense for June, considering the >100knt core of westerlies at 500mb (yesterday)... Yesterday evening, GRR/DTX VAD profiles indicated very strong veering in the lowest 1km, with 10-15knt SFC winds, with >50knts at 2-3K FT! If we would have had CAPE of >2500J/KG, we probably would have had something big, maybe even historical (doesn't take too many tornadoes to be historical here in the Great Lakes!)... WI had better instability, though it was still weak, and look what happened - Several reports of TORs. I think that was just a little "sample" of what could have been a very active day. Just something to think about...