06/07/05 TALK: N Plains

[Amos Magliocco]

I'm in Valentine with no Cingular signal. Cingular is spectacularly bad in most areas of Tornado Alley. Depending on how much you like getting calls during chase season, this is either a blessing or a curse...lol. But there's WiFi everywhere!

I agree with Glen that leaving Valentine attm is hard to do. I'll paste an email I sent to a friend a moment ago:

"hmm...this cu field is developing fast from here to the east, as is
the one near Murdo. One thing I don't like about the I-90 target is
how the 850 trough backs the flow up there and seems to eliminate much
low level shear, given southeasterly sfc flow into the western sfc
low. The 0-1k shear is pretty marginal there while the model shows a
strong southerly low level jet over extreme north central and
northeastern Nebraska at 0z, above backed flow ahead of the dryline
bulge and beneath an h5 speed max at 0z.

I know I'm seeing too much of yesterday in today and they are
different setups. A dangerous bias for a forecaster, but the RUC
gives me some doubts about how things will play out. The 15z shows
the same pressure fields setting up as the 12z did.

What to do, what to do. Time for a chicken bacon wrap from Subway I
think! LOL."

Originally posted by Karen Rhoden
BTW - does anybody know the cellphone coverage situation up in northern NE or southern SD for Cingular??? From the way things are going this year so far, I'm guessting it's non-existant......

KR

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Well I've opted out again on Darin B ... this cold is suddenly ridiculously bad, and the insecurities about today helped me decide to stay home. Congratulations to everyone on the beautiful catches last night! I think the only thing to do at this point is to wait and observe the track this system decides to take (being that the models can't seem to do it, you'll probably have to eyeball this one) ... it basically just comes down to hoping something fires early on a boundary somewhere between Rapid City and Minneapolis today. I think there will probably be a few tornadoes tonight - the question is just where and when! All the best - have fun with it -

Waiting now for the next big show at the end of the week here - - -

 

[Karen Politte]

Amos -

That was my fear with Gene and Tim out today - they BOTH have Cingular! I guess the moral of the story is that if you chase with another person - try and make sure that they have a different cellular provider than you. Last year we chased with AT&T and vowed never to do so again. After this year we will be vowing the same with Cingular vehemently. As a last option, I have also sent Gene off with my old Nokia 5165 TDMA Tracfone......as when we chase I ALWAYS carry it. It seems to have signal everywhere.......

Aside.....

Cu field on satellite visible from Valentine northwards and northeastwards towards Mitchell, SD. The part of the cu field that has developed near Mitchell did so very rapidly (within 1 or 2 satellite photos) and displays a good degree of agitation. This may be the first area to watch of the day........IF we can get that moisture up.

KR

 

[Glen Romine]

Originally posted by Douglas Mitchell
Well after checking mesoanalysis, I'm liking the tongue of instability further E in MN (closer to home), I think I'm going to be playing this instead of the later show in SD, my target now is Morris, MN, I'll be heading out in about 10 minutes.

I think this could work out ok - may be a short window of time to work with - but there certainly is a respectable environment to wok with. Cells starting to fire near Brainerd now, but I'd wait for something closer to the MPX metro.

Glen

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Karen - I've been having pretty good success with Verizon lately ... able to consistently pull data in no-man's land Kansas and place calls without much trouble (especially after I added an external antenna) ... I've gone back and forth with liking Verizon in the past, but they are currently on the 'thumbs-up' list for me ... It's true - Cingular has been notoriously bad in the plains at times.

As for a few obs today - nice Cu field is now blossoming from Valentine northward into central SD, with heavy coverage over extreme western SD into Montana. Looks like the boundary is cutting smack through the middle of SD right now, arching back toward Chamberlain. Anywhere westward from Mitchell might be a good place to be -

 

[Mike Johnston]

Well, don't look now, but a fair amount of convection initiating over NE OK, SW MO and SE KS, with some tops approaching 40k. Area HWO's pretty subdued about possibilities for severe, but interesting that lifted indexes all the way to -12 in SE KS now. I know....area far, far away from the upper/mid level dynamics, but with moderately low LCL's and some 0-1km shear, at least worth keeping an eye on for those not already committed much further north.

 

[Amos Magliocco]

New sfc obs show rapidly deepening moisture invof of PIR. That and the presence of a possible boundary makes it too hard to ignore, so I'll head north to Murdo for now.

Good to meet Joel Ewing and his chase partner today--thanks for the WFi tip, guys. Hope to catch you up the road.

Amos

 

[Mikey Gribble]

I just got to Valentine after spending the night in Oneill. When I came out of my hotel this morning to load equipment the Texas Tech chase team was parked next to my car using the hotels wifi. I think they might have also been trying to follow me lol. I just got done checking data and will be heading North and maybe a little West. I am hoping to find wifi somewhere up there.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Originally posted by Mike Johnston
Well, don't look now, but a fair amount of convection initiating over NE OK, SW MO and SE KS, with some tops approaching 40k. Area HWO's pretty subdued about possibilities for severe, but interesting that lifted indexes all the way to -12 in SE KS now. I know....area far, far away from the upper/mid level dynamics, but with moderately low LCL's and some 0-1km shear, at least worth keeping an eye on for those not already committed much further north.

LOL - well Nowata Co. in NE Oklahoma just went SVR-warned ... Karen, maybe you should jump on the southern stuff while Gene is up north.

 

[Karen Politte]

Originally posted by Mike Peregrine
LOL - well Nowata Co. in NE Oklahoma just went SVR-warned ... Karen, maybe you should jump on the southern stuff while Gene is up north.

Oh ya me catch the southern "gotcha" storm - the Norman surprise, huh?

If my ar$e wasn't glued to the office chair at work right now......I might. Unfortunately THAT is why I am in OUN at all today.....otherwise I would be out partying with the rest of you in SD.

Well......looks like the new Day 1 is about to be issued......I will be interested to hear what they say about how today is shaping up. Every new update of the RUC still has horrid forecast dewpoints and CAPE through midnight tonight - I can only assume that it mixes the moisture out or something in the eastern half of SD. One thing is that the winds in SD are really feeding kinda sorta from NE - not IA. So right now they may be sucking on air with obs such as 81/61 and 83/62. :?

Also - what's up with the veered sfc winds in eastern SD now, too?

KR

 

[Karen Politte]

3.02pm CDT:

Radar "blip" in Shannon Co., SD can be seen from North Platte's radar and not Rapid City's. It may perhaps just be a sampling of lower cu bases as they build.

KR

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Cell west of Rapid City (in the Black Hills, of course) now SVR-warned:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RAPID CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL PENNINGTON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA * UNTIL 230 PM MDT

It's moving N-NE at about 20 kts. Indicating meso currently.

 

[nickgrillo]

I am currently in Pierre, SD right now, with a 79/66 T/Td. A storm has already formed in westcentral SD, and currently has a SVR on it... I am expecting a red box to be issued soon for the western half of SD. I am feeling very confident about today...

 

[Glen Romine]

Red box finally coming out of SPC for SD/NE. Link to text below. Sad little convective development in ne Shannon county continues to struggle mightily, meanwhile largely sub-severe storms continue west of the Black Hills of SD, with one interesting cell in Niobrara county in WY. Cell motions have been largely NNE, which kinda sucks - as the road options in the Indian Resrvation up in NW SD I'm guessing are not good - and with the issues of Lake Oahe and the Mo River to deal with - you are probably well-to-do to enjoy a visit to Wall Drug and the Badlands in case storms are tough to follow. So, could well be good storms there that can't be reached. Still prefer the idea of staying as far south as possible - despite the tempting ne'erly winds in nw SD. Narrow cirrus deck notable on vis sat associated with upper level divergence should act to rapidly initiate stubborn storms in sw SD, and I think eventually nosing back into NE - so I'll stick with VTN area and probably get burned - but hey, it's just a virtual chase for me. Actually, roads in Cherry county suck too - maybe head north a bit to Mission SD area.

Glen

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/0506072047.wwus20.html

 

[Mike Johnston]

Fattening CAPE profile now building across NW MO, along with some surface vorticity oriented SW NE-->NE KS -->NWMO. Moreover, anvil level SR winds all of the sudden are pushing 40-50 kts. Outflow boundary from established line in W MO, apparant on radar, moving towards KC metro area. McGowan dispatching to the build in Miami Co, while I am stationed on the SW corner of my back deck watching new cell develop!