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06/07/05 TALK: N Plains

  • Thread starter Douglas Mitchell
  • Start date
Progged 850mb temps on the RUC model approaching 25 degrees celsius, along with very weak 0-6km shear and LCL levels nearing 1900m (dewpoint depression takes you at least 20-25 degrees) means one thing for me: another day staying at home! Good luck to those who are out today.
 
Progged 850mb temps on the RUC model

Always wait for the 15z RUC as the 12z has the old garbage still in the background. 12z NAM H70 temps in the +9 to +11 range for the target area are plenty breakable given the forcing. Outflow from the morning MCS has added to the complexity of the forecast. I worry some of the juice will be diverted to the east. Evapo-Trans would compenstate a bit. NAM has slowed things down a notch meaning a target a bit further west than originally thought. Still looking like a favorable set-up and I will simply wait a couple hours to see how things shape up before crusing down the freeway.
 
Originally posted by Jeff Lawson
Things look to be setting up much the way I feared: late, and too far west. I'm gonna pass on this one.

Sensible man.......

I know that we should wait until newer runs of the RUC come out - but does the 12z RUC depiction of a 95oF/60oF initiation environment across much of northeast NE and southeast SD not scare anyone?

:shock:

KR
 
The setup isn't looking as good to me as it once did, but I still see the potential in it, including the potential for a few tornadoes...

I am currently in Brookings and will probably make my way westward to setup for the day within a few hours...
 
Take a look at forecast soundings for SFD at 0Z. Off the scale! Can't get much more tornadic looking than that. I'm sorry to say I won't be chasing it though. As in previous few years I just don't really want to do the long drive to SD from AUS by myself. I know I'll regret seeing all the incredible big tubes on video that 'everyone' got. Well, I may come around and chase a northern system yet here in June. Long drive though.

Good luck to those of you out there. At a glance there will be convection from 500mb lift though perhaps late afternoon / early evening. There will be tornadoes - some perhaps very large, violent, and long tracked IMO.
 
Originally posted by Karen Rhoden


Sensible man.......

I know that we should wait until newer runs of the RUC come out - but does the 12z RUC depiction of a 95oF/60oF initiation environment across much of northeast NE and southeast SD not scare anyone?

I should clarify. Cap and timing issues aside, I think it's a good setup. However, I don't have enough confidence in the setup to drive 6 hours to the target. I have several friends up there (or headed that way), and I know a lot of people are chasing today, so I wish everyone luck. If I miss something, so be it.

Anyway, the 12Z RUC is kind of screwy, so I'd be more interested in seeing what the 18Z has to offer. The ETA is a bit more bullish on moisture (what's new?), although I'm not sure if its surface setup is reasonable or not. It's not the best day to hang one's hat on model solutions, I'm afraid. Unfortunately, I can't discern much from surface observations this morning, either.

Anyway...decent setup, but conditional enough to where I don't want to spend the better part of the day driving to the target.
 
Originally posted by Jeff Lawson

Anyway...decent setup, but conditional enough to where I don't want to spend the better part of the day driving to the target.

Agreed - unfortunately Gene and Tim M. left OUN last night to play this :roll: - and were only in Salina at 9.00am this morning. Considering that most are targeting SD today - and that they want to play NE - I am somewhat concerned about today's potential for them.

BTW - does anybody know the cellphone coverage situation up in northern NE or southern SD for Cingular??? From the way things are going this year so far, I'm guessting it's non-existant......

KR
 
Originally posted by Karen Rhoden
BTW - does anybody know the cellphone coverage situation up in northern NE or southern SD for Cingular??? From the way things are going this year so far, I'm guessting it's non-existant......

KR

Cingular covers mainly along and about 20 miles in either direction of the major Interstates in SD, and covers most of northeast Nebraska.

Main thing about SD that I am concerned about today is timing of initation, too late in my opinion, and too far west. And look at that 10 degree isotherm at 700mb just surge up into SD via 15Z RUC for 21Z. I am still not sure of today, but I have a better feeling about MN potential than SD at this moment. Good luck to those who are out today and stay safe
 
SPC has raised tor threat for SE/SC South Dakota to 15% and is expecting tornadoes at initial phases... might be one of those days where you'll have to jump on em at the get-go before it all goes into a huge convective mess:

TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE LOW NEAR THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

Confidence looks to be increasing for tornadoes. Good luck all!
 
With some stabilization of boundary layer in wake of last night's MCS, looks like it's going to be a relay race today - with the handoff zone around S Central SD. Although 12z NAM forecasts relatively low lid strength index over this area by 00z, this is clearly predicated on colder temps associated with approaching upper system overlapping with building heat & moisture recovery. However, quick look at the RUC throws some doubt into this setup - although E/W Theta-E ridge across S SD, not sure if 345 - 350K will be quite sufficient. If storms can initiate in this area, however, kinematics certainly in place for significant severe and tornadoes. If not, look for nocturnal jet to kick in later with supercell development over NE NE, NW IA, SW MN.
 
Originally posted by Jeffrey Miller
SPC has raised tor threat for SE/SC South Dakota to 15% and is expecting tornadoes at onset:

TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE LOW NEAR THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

Confidence looks to be increasing for tornadoes. Good luck all!

They are also saying that a second line will possibly form in SE SD...

WHILE UNLIKELY...IF ANY STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE EVENING OVER OUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL...MAINLY FROM 7 PM THROUGH 10 PM.

I know we're stretching for tornados anyway, but there is possibly another setup for SE SD. I'd go chase just to see rain though. It goes beyond the thrill of seeing a tornado, but communing with nature and getting some fresh air.

Again, good luck...and I'm pretty sure some of the hotels by the interstate in Brookings have wifi signals if you need data. Or just PM me to stop by my house (cable internet). Huron is just about an hour west on Hwy 14 from Brookings.

Just saw this in a discussion from the FSD NWS office:
LNGRNG SHWRS/TSTMS FROM PREDAWN HOURS REALLY POOPED OUT AS THE MOVED

I just get imagery of a big cloud exclaiming, "Boy, I'm pooped." So is a microburst when a supercell is REALLY pooped? Some good humor for you.
 
I ended up not going this morning -- too zonked from lack of sleep. :) 5+ hours of driving each way just to work tomorrow... actually, I'm thinking maybe tomorrow will be my chase day, as it's closer to home. So I get to be the sacrificial lamb and now surely everyone will bag a longtrack wedge. Good luck to all who are out today!
 
This is a tough forecast, imo, and has been with the uncertainties offered by the overnight convection. Forecast models all offering pretty poor guidance, and observations are still sorting themselves out following the overnight convection. Not sure about the latest SPC forecast mentioning 70 dews into central SD - hard to imagine given their current location in extreme se NE with nw winds, but certainly could get to se SD by evening. Anyhow - plenty of sunshine - and the cap is really quite resonable for June even with only 60 dews. Weak surface low near Imperial NE has held tight this morning (beneath strongest mid-level cap) - and should slowly lift northward. To me - this is the feature to follow, with nearly dry adiabatic ll lapse rates in it's wake, along with improving moisture to the north with backed surface winds. Best current guess puts this feature near Valentine by this evening, when storms may be able to develop there, but this could be way off. Like further south with more veered upper level flow, and potential to tap into a better low-level moisture tongue - somewhere between VTN and ONL perhaps. Otherwise, should see storms move off the higher terrain into gradually improving instability. Not much of a cap at UNR this morning - so storms could develop out that way early. Serious cyclogenesis will be needed though to make the current surface wind fields in central and western SD adequate - and I fear this won't happen before the cold pool becomes organized into a line. Current surface ridge holding backed winds and some modest convergence around the Philip area may well dissolve before storms can initiate - though vis sat shows this area is currently trying. So, this is why I favor hoping for a more discrete cell further south. Again - this is all too far west for me to go after - so it's easy for me to sit back and throw out some random targets - reality in the field is you pick something based on where you currently are. It will be interesting to see if a rogue cell or two can develop well east of the main forcing. Anyhow, good luck to all in the field today.

Glen
 
12z soundings show a cap in place across much of the area that ranges from 20c - 30c. I am fairly certain that the cap will be broken by surface heating if the 15z RUC is right about surface temps. At the moment I'm not so sure that the RUC has a good handle on the cap. I think that the ETA had a much better handle on it on its 12z run (when the bloody hell does that thing update?). Moisture convergence as told by the 15z RUC is pretty shoddy all over.

For most of the day the strongest 850 winds are going to be in central and southeast Nebraska. You've got some backing winds in South Dakota, but you're looking at winds that appear to spend the majority of the day struggling to reach 10 knotts, and they don't really begin to become backing winds until 21z. By 0z you've got some screaming backing winds. 20 - 30 knotts. So the way I'm feeling this one out the tornado threat appears to be a late afternoon / early evening one.

There is decent support winds in the 700 and 500 wind forecast. I don't know if there's such a thing as too strong, but it almost looks that way.
 
Well after checking mesoanalysis, I'm liking the tongue of instability further E in MN (closer to home), I think I'm going to be playing this instead of the later show in SD, my target now is Morris, MN, I'll be heading out in about 10 minutes.

EDIT: I'm beginning to like the area over C/EC MN now, looking for iniation just to my N and W in the next hour or two.
 
Given that I would love to chase out this one, beings I could be out there in central SD within 4 hours easy. But, given no partner and previous engagements I will be setting the virtual chase as well as Glen.

Right now I believe that the cap should break in central SD and give way to at least 2 or 3 discrete cells at first. I think you are really going to have to get after those. Once these things start to congele into a line and start moving they will book! Latest discussion from FSD/DMX as well as local met are all agreeing that these should form a linear MCS and fly eastward.

I would set up around the Chamberlain, SD area. I wouldn't want to head west of the MO simply becuase between Pierre and the NE border there is essentially only a half dozen spots to cross. Anyways, good luck to anybody out there...
 
Td

I dont think moisture return will be a problem. Dewpoint here in SUX has surged from 60 to 64 in 2 hours.... looking at the Surface Plot upper 60s and even a 70 Td in NW Iowa.... temperature also climbing nicely with now full sunshine.
 
I am really liking this setup! I don't know why but I am just getting this feeling that everything is going to come together. I like the fact that the cap is strong in the NE Ne and SE Sd area and weak further to the NW. The low level winds are very weak but if forecasted correctly will pick up quickly around the 20-22 hours and I really like the Southern South Dakota area in a triangle from the Murdo, Mission, Winner area. Current ruc (17z) from the composite is showing a cape bullseye of 1500 in this area and quickly increasing to 4000j/kg in south central Ks moving north rapidly. Current obs are showing 80/63 t/td with increasing se winds at 13 in Winner. The td an hour ago was 60 so the moisture is flying in. I would have to play this area and take a chance with a cap bust and if all else fails try to play the tail-end Charlie up north since it is looking like it will be linear in the NW Sd area. There should be at least a couple nice long lived sups fire late afternoon, IMO. Wish I was there! Good luck everyone hope I get to see some video.

If you are in this area road options are pretty good in the Murdo, Sd just remember that you have the Mi river to contend with and not many places to cross.
 
Yes, moisture is now skyrocketing across areas of IA especially... 75 Td in Onawa along the MO river, 70 in Storm Lake, 68 in Algona, IA. All of southern IA is in at least 70+ Td's.

And if convective temps are to be believed some storms may be able to form earlier. FSD convective temp is 91, K9V9 convective temp is only 89 degrees. So the storms should be able to start eroding the cap by late afternoon, and on that note the 700 temp in ABR at noon was 9 degrees.
 
I'm in Valentine with no Cingular signal. Cingular is spectacularly bad in most areas of Tornado Alley. Depending on how much you like getting calls during chase season, this is either a blessing or a curse...lol. But there's WiFi everywhere!

I agree with Glen that leaving Valentine attm is hard to do. I'll paste an email I sent to a friend a moment ago:

"hmm...this cu field is developing fast from here to the east, as is
the one near Murdo. One thing I don't like about the I-90 target is
how the 850 trough backs the flow up there and seems to eliminate much
low level shear, given southeasterly sfc flow into the western sfc
low. The 0-1k shear is pretty marginal there while the model shows a
strong southerly low level jet over extreme north central and
northeastern Nebraska at 0z, above backed flow ahead of the dryline
bulge and beneath an h5 speed max at 0z.

I know I'm seeing too much of yesterday in today and they are
different setups. A dangerous bias for a forecaster, but the RUC
gives me some doubts about how things will play out. The 15z shows
the same pressure fields setting up as the 12z did.

What to do, what to do. Time for a chicken bacon wrap from Subway I
think! LOL."


Originally posted by Karen Rhoden
BTW - does anybody know the cellphone coverage situation up in northern NE or southern SD for Cingular??? From the way things are going this year so far, I'm guessting it's non-existant......

KR
 
Well I've opted out again on Darin B ... this cold is suddenly ridiculously bad, and the insecurities about today helped me decide to stay home. Congratulations to everyone on the beautiful catches last night! I think the only thing to do at this point is to wait and observe the track this system decides to take (being that the models can't seem to do it, you'll probably have to eyeball this one) ... it basically just comes down to hoping something fires early on a boundary somewhere between Rapid City and Minneapolis today. I think there will probably be a few tornadoes tonight - the question is just where and when! All the best - have fun with it -

Waiting now for the next big show at the end of the week here - - -
 
Amos -

That was my fear with Gene and Tim out today - they BOTH have Cingular! I guess the moral of the story is that if you chase with another person - try and make sure that they have a different cellular provider than you. Last year we chased with AT&T and vowed never to do so again. After this year we will be vowing the same with Cingular vehemently. As a last option, I have also sent Gene off with my old Nokia 5165 TDMA Tracfone......as when we chase I ALWAYS carry it. It seems to have signal everywhere.......

Aside.....

Cu field on satellite visible from Valentine northwards and northeastwards towards Mitchell, SD. The part of the cu field that has developed near Mitchell did so very rapidly (within 1 or 2 satellite photos) and displays a good degree of agitation. This may be the first area to watch of the day........IF we can get that moisture up.

KR
 
Originally posted by Douglas Mitchell
Well after checking mesoanalysis, I'm liking the tongue of instability further E in MN (closer to home), I think I'm going to be playing this instead of the later show in SD, my target now is Morris, MN, I'll be heading out in about 10 minutes.

I think this could work out ok - may be a short window of time to work with - but there certainly is a respectable environment to wok with. Cells starting to fire near Brainerd now, but I'd wait for something closer to the MPX metro.

Glen
 
Karen - I've been having pretty good success with Verizon lately ... able to consistently pull data in no-man's land Kansas and place calls without much trouble (especially after I added an external antenna) ... I've gone back and forth with liking Verizon in the past, but they are currently on the 'thumbs-up' list for me ... It's true - Cingular has been notoriously bad in the plains at times.

As for a few obs today - nice Cu field is now blossoming from Valentine northward into central SD, with heavy coverage over extreme western SD into Montana. Looks like the boundary is cutting smack through the middle of SD right now, arching back toward Chamberlain. Anywhere westward from Mitchell might be a good place to be -
 
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