06/07/05 TALK: N Plains

[Bill Tabor]

Take a look at forecast soundings for SFD at 0Z. Off the scale! Can't get much more tornadic looking than that. I'm sorry to say I won't be chasing it though. As in previous few years I just don't really want to do the long drive to SD from AUS by myself. I know I'll regret seeing all the incredible big tubes on video that 'everyone' got. Well, I may come around and chase a northern system yet here in June. Long drive though.

Good luck to those of you out there. At a glance there will be convection from 500mb lift though perhaps late afternoon / early evening. There will be tornadoes - some perhaps very large, violent, and long tracked IMO.

 

[Jeff Lawson]

Originally posted by Karen Rhoden


Sensible man.......

I know that we should wait until newer runs of the RUC come out - but does the 12z RUC depiction of a 95oF/60oF initiation environment across much of northeast NE and southeast SD not scare anyone?

I should clarify. Cap and timing issues aside, I think it's a good setup. However, I don't have enough confidence in the setup to drive 6 hours to the target. I have several friends up there (or headed that way), and I know a lot of people are chasing today, so I wish everyone luck. If I miss something, so be it.

Anyway, the 12Z RUC is kind of screwy, so I'd be more interested in seeing what the 18Z has to offer. The ETA is a bit more bullish on moisture (what's new?), although I'm not sure if its surface setup is reasonable or not. It's not the best day to hang one's hat on model solutions, I'm afraid. Unfortunately, I can't discern much from surface observations this morning, either.

Anyway...decent setup, but conditional enough to where I don't want to spend the better part of the day driving to the target.

 

[Karen Politte]

Originally posted by Jeff Lawson

Anyway...decent setup, but conditional enough to where I don't want to spend the better part of the day driving to the target.

Agreed - unfortunately Gene and Tim M. left OUN last night to play this :roll: - and were only in Salina at 9.00am this morning. Considering that most are targeting SD today - and that they want to play NE - I am somewhat concerned about today's potential for them.

BTW - does anybody know the cellphone coverage situation up in northern NE or southern SD for Cingular??? From the way things are going this year so far, I'm guessting it's non-existant......

KR

 

[Ben Prusia]

Originally posted by Karen Rhoden
BTW - does anybody know the cellphone coverage situation up in northern NE or southern SD for Cingular??? From the way things are going this year so far, I'm guessting it's non-existant......

KR

Cingular covers mainly along and about 20 miles in either direction of the major Interstates in SD, and covers most of northeast Nebraska.

Main thing about SD that I am concerned about today is timing of initation, too late in my opinion, and too far west. And look at that 10 degree isotherm at 700mb just surge up into SD via 15Z RUC for 21Z. I am still not sure of today, but I have a better feeling about MN potential than SD at this moment. Good luck to those who are out today and stay safe

 

[Jeff Miller]

SPC has raised tor threat for SE/SC South Dakota to 15% and is expecting tornadoes at initial phases... might be one of those days where you'll have to jump on em at the get-go before it all goes into a huge convective mess:

TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE LOW NEAR THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

Confidence looks to be increasing for tornadoes. Good luck all!

 

[Mike Johnston]

With some stabilization of boundary layer in wake of last night's MCS, looks like it's going to be a relay race today - with the handoff zone around S Central SD. Although 12z NAM forecasts relatively low lid strength index over this area by 00z, this is clearly predicated on colder temps associated with approaching upper system overlapping with building heat & moisture recovery. However, quick look at the RUC throws some doubt into this setup - although E/W Theta-E ridge across S SD, not sure if 345 - 350K will be quite sufficient. If storms can initiate in this area, however, kinematics certainly in place for significant severe and tornadoes. If not, look for nocturnal jet to kick in later with supercell development over NE NE, NW IA, SW MN.

 

[Edward Ballou]

Originally posted by Jeffrey Miller
SPC has raised tor threat for SE/SC South Dakota to 15% and is expecting tornadoes at onset:

TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE LOW NEAR THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

Confidence looks to be increasing for tornadoes. Good luck all!

They are also saying that a second line will possibly form in SE SD...

WHILE UNLIKELY...IF ANY STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE EVENING OVER OUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES AS WELL...MAINLY FROM 7 PM THROUGH 10 PM.

I know we're stretching for tornados anyway, but there is possibly another setup for SE SD. I'd go chase just to see rain though. It goes beyond the thrill of seeing a tornado, but communing with nature and getting some fresh air.

Again, good luck...and I'm pretty sure some of the hotels by the interstate in Brookings have wifi signals if you need data. Or just PM me to stop by my house (cable internet). Huron is just about an hour west on Hwy 14 from Brookings.

Just saw this in a discussion from the FSD NWS office:

LNGRNG SHWRS/TSTMS FROM PREDAWN HOURS REALLY POOPED OUT AS THE MOVED

I just get imagery of a big cloud exclaiming, "Boy, I'm pooped." So is a microburst when a supercell is REALLY pooped? Some good humor for you.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

I ended up not going this morning -- too zonked from lack of sleep. 5+ hours of driving each way just to work tomorrow... actually, I'm thinking maybe tomorrow will be my chase day, as it's closer to home. So I get to be the sacrificial lamb and now surely everyone will bag a longtrack wedge. Good luck to all who are out today!

 

[Glen Romine]

This is a tough forecast, imo, and has been with the uncertainties offered by the overnight convection. Forecast models all offering pretty poor guidance, and observations are still sorting themselves out following the overnight convection. Not sure about the latest SPC forecast mentioning 70 dews into central SD - hard to imagine given their current location in extreme se NE with nw winds, but certainly could get to se SD by evening. Anyhow - plenty of sunshine - and the cap is really quite resonable for June even with only 60 dews. Weak surface low near Imperial NE has held tight this morning (beneath strongest mid-level cap) - and should slowly lift northward. To me - this is the feature to follow, with nearly dry adiabatic ll lapse rates in it's wake, along with improving moisture to the north with backed surface winds. Best current guess puts this feature near Valentine by this evening, when storms may be able to develop there, but this could be way off. Like further south with more veered upper level flow, and potential to tap into a better low-level moisture tongue - somewhere between VTN and ONL perhaps. Otherwise, should see storms move off the higher terrain into gradually improving instability. Not much of a cap at UNR this morning - so storms could develop out that way early. Serious cyclogenesis will be needed though to make the current surface wind fields in central and western SD adequate - and I fear this won't happen before the cold pool becomes organized into a line. Current surface ridge holding backed winds and some modest convergence around the Philip area may well dissolve before storms can initiate - though vis sat shows this area is currently trying. So, this is why I favor hoping for a more discrete cell further south. Again - this is all too far west for me to go after - so it's easy for me to sit back and throw out some random targets - reality in the field is you pick something based on where you currently are. It will be interesting to see if a rogue cell or two can develop well east of the main forcing. Anyhow, good luck to all in the field today.

Glen

 

[JHadorn]

12z soundings show a cap in place across much of the area that ranges from 20c - 30c. I am fairly certain that the cap will be broken by surface heating if the 15z RUC is right about surface temps. At the moment I'm not so sure that the RUC has a good handle on the cap. I think that the ETA had a much better handle on it on its 12z run (when the bloody hell does that thing update?). Moisture convergence as told by the 15z RUC is pretty shoddy all over.

For most of the day the strongest 850 winds are going to be in central and southeast Nebraska. You've got some backing winds in South Dakota, but you're looking at winds that appear to spend the majority of the day struggling to reach 10 knotts, and they don't really begin to become backing winds until 21z. By 0z you've got some screaming backing winds. 20 - 30 knotts. So the way I'm feeling this one out the tornado threat appears to be a late afternoon / early evening one.

There is decent support winds in the 700 and 500 wind forecast. I don't know if there's such a thing as too strong, but it almost looks that way.

 

[Douglas Mitchell]

Well after checking mesoanalysis, I'm liking the tongue of instability further E in MN (closer to home), I think I'm going to be playing this instead of the later show in SD, my target now is Morris, MN, I'll be heading out in about 10 minutes.

EDIT: I'm beginning to like the area over C/EC MN now, looking for iniation just to my N and W in the next hour or two.

 

[Jayson Prentice]

Given that I would love to chase out this one, beings I could be out there in central SD within 4 hours easy. But, given no partner and previous engagements I will be setting the virtual chase as well as Glen.

Right now I believe that the cap should break in central SD and give way to at least 2 or 3 discrete cells at first. I think you are really going to have to get after those. Once these things start to congele into a line and start moving they will book! Latest discussion from FSD/DMX as well as local met are all agreeing that these should form a linear MCS and fly eastward.

I would set up around the Chamberlain, SD area. I wouldn't want to head west of the MO simply becuase between Pierre and the NE border there is essentially only a half dozen spots to cross. Anyways, good luck to anybody out there...

 

[Jeff Miller]

Td

I dont think moisture return will be a problem. Dewpoint here in SUX has surged from 60 to 64 in 2 hours.... looking at the Surface Plot upper 60s and even a 70 Td in NW Iowa.... temperature also climbing nicely with now full sunshine.

 

[Brandon Clement]

I am really liking this setup! I don't know why but I am just getting this feeling that everything is going to come together. I like the fact that the cap is strong in the NE Ne and SE Sd area and weak further to the NW. The low level winds are very weak but if forecasted correctly will pick up quickly around the 20-22 hours and I really like the Southern South Dakota area in a triangle from the Murdo, Mission, Winner area. Current ruc (17z) from the composite is showing a cape bullseye of 1500 in this area and quickly increasing to 4000j/kg in south central Ks moving north rapidly. Current obs are showing 80/63 t/td with increasing se winds at 13 in Winner. The td an hour ago was 60 so the moisture is flying in. I would have to play this area and take a chance with a cap bust and if all else fails try to play the tail-end Charlie up north since it is looking like it will be linear in the NW Sd area. There should be at least a couple nice long lived sups fire late afternoon, IMO. Wish I was there! Good luck everyone hope I get to see some video.

If you are in this area road options are pretty good in the Murdo, Sd just remember that you have the Mi river to contend with and not many places to cross.

 

[Jayson Prentice]

Yes, moisture is now skyrocketing across areas of IA especially... 75 Td in Onawa along the MO river, 70 in Storm Lake, 68 in Algona, IA. All of southern IA is in at least 70+ Td's.

And if convective temps are to be believed some storms may be able to form earlier. FSD convective temp is 91, K9V9 convective temp is only 89 degrees. So the storms should be able to start eroding the cap by late afternoon, and on that note the 700 temp in ABR at noon was 9 degrees.