06/03/05 TALK: Plains

[Mike Johnston]

Melissa Moon wrote:

Ugh, I don't know guys.

Ugh is right -- what a mess to sort out targeting this morning, and can't even use SPC as a crutch with their very broad and non-specific outlook. At this point, not sure if the upper short-wave is helping or hurting my case for SE KS target this afternoon, as upper flow looks to be more uni-directional over that area. Soggy MCS moving over my backyard this morning kind of dampens the usual high spirits of a chase day. Will have to keep an open mind, carefully monitor actual observations, and look for cloud cover breaks before rushing out to a target today.

 

[Shane Adams]

Barring convective debris (which I believe will clear in time), Oklahoma finally looks to get in the game this season. Runs have been consistent with very nice windfields moving into the target area by 0Z (which are currently being confirmed by both Aztec/White Sands profilers), and despite the ETA's obvious consideration of the ongoing convection currently in NW TX/SW OK, instability is still progged to be well in the moderate range. With the amount of veering (and even some degree of speed shear) present, it looks like a good chance of sups despite the loss of some CAPE due to convective debris. Of course this is 2005, and things are always subject to change, but for now I'm quite content to head southwest to the US62 corridor, maybe parking it in Altus to wait and see what happens. ETA solution pushes things a bit further east than the RUC, but the general consensus is SW OK/NW TX.

Might be a sleeper storm today that makes a chaser's year. I'd bet on it. I've driven through rain to get to my target area more than once on days when I've seen tornadoes.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

By latest ETA run there's a very good low level convergence in South-west Oklahoma with easterly winds of 15 knots with nice dew points at the ground, supported by 30knts of low level jet and very nice mid level flow. I like very much this setup guys and it seems those zones close to Vernon, Wichita Falls and Altus could have a ration of tornadoes today.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

Well, woke up this morning thinking I was going for a road trip, but after looking a data, I went to work instead. The stuff in Ok is already firing and I don’t believe it will be discreet enough. My other target of sw CO is socked in with heavy cloud cover. On top of it all, it appears you’ll need to be setup in south central IA for tomorrow, so a long drive south or west and then haul clear back to IA does not sound appealing. I am starting to take an interest in n central KS. There is already clearing around the Phillipsburg area and this is just downstream of mid lvl short wave, and current T / Td’s are right on top of each other. The 21z forecast should have T ~ 70 – 80f, Td ~ upper 60’s to lower 70’s (current 63), Cape > 3000, & Li of –6 to –8. Cin should erode by 00z. SRH’s are weak with 0-1km ~ 50 – 100, and 0-3km 100 – 150. 0-6km shear should be ~ 40 to 60. I can make this area in about 4 hours, so will maybe make a move in the next couple of hrs.

 

[Douglas Mitchell]

Sitting in Woodward right now, with decent storm with CG passing overhead, me and the crew are banking on the clearing occurring in the S TX panhandle to reach target area of Childress-Altus soon. ETA and RUC are in decent agreement about the area, I think that if this clearing does happen soon, we could have an interesting day down here.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://www.wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_RUC236_SF...E-CONV_12HR.gif

That is going to update any time now so change the 12hr to 9hr if it isn't for 0z. I'm starting to be pulled towards that bullseye near Denver. Sky has quite awhile to clear. Glad that big line of mountains is there! RUC and eta are pretty different with sfc features on the 12z runs. If the RUC is right I guess CO is where I'd want to be....ETA then TX Panhandle. Hope the ruc is on to things here. Should be nice shear in either if they are right. Moisture is an equal concern in both imo. I like looping the spc meso page cape over KS. I could see that going west towards the front range again, but it has to get going soon. As quikly as those clouds are dissipating over OK I think the clouds in CO still have some chace to erode a bit. It might not matter with the uplope the ruc is showing.

 

[Shane Adams]

Current satellite loop shows a huge area of clear skies behind the convective swirl in the TX pan/SW OK, which is moving north as it spins around itself. This just screams "watch me today" IMO.

I expect a Mod at 1630Z with a hashed for sig tors in the SE TX pan/NW TX/SW OK.

 

[Chris C Sanner]

I think today is going to be one of those sleeper days just by the way things are progressing. SPC mentioned an upgrade to the severe risk in the current WW, so I'm not sure if that means they are going to issue a tornado watch for all of OK now or just upgrade to mod risk. Either way is fine by me though. I agree with everyone else, its Altus or bust right now for us. I wouldn't be shocked to see severe wx reports all over Oklahoma today. I feel sorry for the NWS folks today, they're gonna be issuing warnings ALL day for all sorts of convection...

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Does anyone else see a setup in c-nc-nw KS similar to the one April 10 or is it just me? The flow seems pretty similar with pretty backed upper winds, but really backed low level winds north of the sfc low(at 21z on 15z ruc). Big difference is instability this time. Hell I might be interested for the area I'm in now in nw KS.

 

[Shane Adams]

Yeah, it does look similar. The flow is rather weak, but turns nicely. Also, the chasers who nailed tornadoes April 10 mentioned a boundary that the noerthward-moving storms crossed and went crazy. Might be looking for something like that.

 

[Kurt Silvey]

Originally posted by Mike Hollingshead
Does anyone else see a setup in c-nc-nw KS

I have been watching this area since this morning. I think I will be headed out soon to the Phillipsburg / Norton area. I would like to see some more clearing though.

 

[Philip Flory]

Leaving DDC now for CDS. I agree with sleeper potential today, i'll be in CDS around 4, don't let the show start without me.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Originally posted by Shane Adams
Current satellite loop shows a huge area of clear skies behind the convective swirl in the TX pan/SW OK, which is moving north as it spins around itself. This just screams \"watch me today\" IMO.

I expect a Mod at 1630Z with a hashed for sig tors in the SE TX pan/NW TX/SW OK.

Shane I'm keeping an eye on SW OK area and it looks that in the target zone like Vernon, Childress, heating is starting up just now: sky is clear now. Moreover if you see sat animation you can see that TX cirrus are going away from there toward N-NE and this is a good sign.What do you think for the cap? It doesn't seem thermonuclear like yesterday...More chances...

 

[Shane Adams]

h85 generally 22c along the target zone and h7 is in the neighborhood of 8c, last time I checked. These fluctuate, but as you say, I don't foresee a huge capping inversion like yesterday.

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

My main concern for SW/OK NW TX are these storms at and near Childress... it looks like they'll zap the boundary layer and we may be hosed.

Aaron