06/03/05 TALK: Plains

Since we're already generating quite a bit of conversation about Friday, I thought we could open a talk thread so we can reserve the forecast thread for serious forecast discussion. Looks like some nice potential on Friday and the chase chatter is starting to build. Big question concerns the cap ... it could make or break the deal on Friday. As it stands, I plan to chase both days (Fri & Sat) depending on what happens with the atmosphere as we get closer to the day one time frame. Have been watching the potential development of this trough for almost a week now and the models still seem to want to forecast severe weather.

Time will tell, I guess -
 
Yea...this really looks like the best setup we have had this year!! The thermalnuclear cap will be though to break!! But if it does...Watch Out!
 
I managed to get Friday off...so I will finally be leaving the state of Illinois. I cant however, get out of work Saturday evening...so its gonna be a rough pair of days...especially if that cap holds. But, attm, it does look like eastern Nebraska holds quite a bit of potential.
 
wow

I had to mention this snippet from the NWS AFD in FSD:

THIS COULD PROVE TO BE OUR
FIRST BIG ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT OF THE YEAR.

Im really liking the set up for certain. I'll save any forecasting for the forecast thread on this day, but Im setting up a link here to my general outlook for this day:

http://s2.excoboard.com/exco/thread.php?fo...threadid=433767

I should certainly be out on Friday, I am picking up my wife at 12:56 PM in Omaha, will check at Eppley field and make our call from there for targeting...IF this pattern holds and the monstrous cap doesnt win again.
 
Still looking impressive, first outlook issued by SPC puts only at slight risk. But, with more fine tuning that will very likely be upgraded to a Moderate.

Here is what Omaha has to say about Friday...

WITH HIGH TEMPS FORECAST IN THE UPPER
80S...FORECAST CAPE VALUES WL EXCEED 3000 J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON
AND +4000 J/KG BY MAX HEATING. WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND
40KTS...A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SIGNIFICANT SVR STORMS WILL
EXIST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WIthin a couple hours the new runs will be in and I'll hopefully issue an actual forecast this afternoon...
 
That is a good question Anthony...

I guess I have only a couple years of watching them, maybe somebody that is wiser than I can tell ya that answer.

I don't believe I've ever seen it... :?
 
Ugh.....and it has to fall on a day of one of the biggest Late Model races in Nebraska. Oh well, whether chasing or racing, it's a win-win for me!


Well, besides the dreaded cap, which we will know more about in later runs, the only other thing to figure out is boundary locations the day of. Find the boundary intersection(s), and hang on! It looks like Eastern NE is ripe, but obviously this could shift south depending on the positioning of the CF and the subsequent outflow boundaries from Thursday's fun.

When in doubt.....target Hebron, NE. ;)
 
Originally posted by Anthony Petito
Maybe it's just me, but this is the first time I have seen SPC have a 25% hatched area in a Day 3 outlook. Just me?

I do remember seeing a 25% with a hatched area a few times this year, April 8's outlook for April 10 is an example:
http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outl...50408_1100.html

The models are tending towards E NE and NC/NE KS during the day on Friday, 0Z NAM paints around 20 degrees C for a cap in SE NE and SW IA at the 850mb level, so it's not incredibly thermonuclear like a 25 degrees C cap is.
 
6/3

Anybody else like the pretty new NAM images on UCAR/RAP? It might grow on me... Anyways, each successive NAM model run is shoving the surface low farther south. What entices me is the 3 mb deepening of the surface low during the afternoon to back the winds to the SE or even ESE, and a strong dryline shove south of the Sfc low. With a strong cap, as we've all noticed this year, maximum convergence is ideal to initiate convection. This finally looks like a classic great plains severe weather outbreak.

There is significant cold air advection occuring in the Pacific Northwest, deepening the trough, which may be the reason the NAM keeps shoving the sfc. low farther south. At this stage in the season, I don't see the sfc low being placed any farther south than the OK/KS border and we may see it shifted a bit farther NW with time as models tend to speed up stronger systems.

I believe the cap will break up and down the dryline in isolated areas due to strong DCVA east of the trough axis, maximum insolation, and strong convergence in the boundary layer. It's exciting to see June come through for us in succesive days.
 
I'm still excited about Friday, but I'm a little worried about the decrease in expected instability and the lack of SRH at 00z :?
 
I originally posted this in the HIGH RISK? thread, but figured I would throw it in here too...

I'm still thinking I'll make my first trip to the plains of the year Friday. Not even going to start pinning down a target yet...but I'm still eyeing SE Nebraska into northern Kansas. It's going to be a heck of an exhausting day...as I'll probably leave before sunrise to make the 8-10 hour drive out there...and will have to be back home Saturday afternoon. So, pending on my tiredness, I may drive straight home right after the chase. Chances are, I'll be too tired though, and will just find somewhere in between there and home to pass out for a few hours. Dont know if it would be worth finding a motel or not, or if I'll just find a rest area to catch a couple hours. That is unless I can find someone interested in rooming together for the nite to cut down on the price.
 
Originally posted by J.B. Dixon
When in doubt.....target Hebron, NE.

This line should be inscribed in the chaser bible or something - J.B. has nailed the truth with this one. :)

Like most others, I won't even start targeting till tomorrow (after this setup evolves a thousand more times), and won't hone in on anything till Friday a.m., if things still look good to go. While I don't think this is as strong a setup as a lot of people believe, I think it's one of the best we've seen so far this spring, so all the excitement is only natural at this point. Time to charge batteries, clean windshields and get stuff together ... finally.
 
I'm wondering if anyone else is getting interested in the SE KS/SW MO area for Friday. There were hints of potential in that area in this morning's NAM run, and it looks more that way this evening. EHI around 4 or higher in some areas, precip forecast, excellent directional shear though wind fields a bit weak in parts of the lower and mid levels. CAPE looks ridiculous in this area, up to 4500. But will the cap stop convection from happening in this area? SPC didn't seem too interested in this area earlier today; will be interesting to see what they think tomorrow on the Day 2 outlook. Any thoughts about this region, anyone?
 
Originally posted by John Farley
I'm wondering if anyone else is getting interested in the SE KS/SW MO area for Friday. There were hints of potential in that area in this morning's NAM run, and it looks more that way this evening. EHI around 4 or higher in some areas, precip forecast, excellent directional shear though wind fields a bit weak in parts of the lower and mid levels. CAPE looks ridiculous in this area, up to 4500. But will the cap stop convection from happening in this area? SPC didn't seem too interested in this area earlier today; will be interesting to see what they think tomorrow on the Day 2 outlook. Any thoughts about this region, anyone?

This is the exact area I'm "targetting" right now. Of course I'm not making any set plans on a target right now...but this is my current area of interest...that being SE Kansas. If I had to make a plan right now, I'd probably head towards Topeka, KS, and then south a tad from there. Things look pretty good...just hope the low level winds can increase a little. Current nam has surface winds from the SE at only about 10 kts...lets pick that up a tad!
 
I would imagine SPC is going to shift the threat area South. I like Ecentral Kansas to NE Kansas. I think weak shear in SE Kansas might be a problem since it is only around 30kts. The NAM isn't showing anything better than 35kts in NE Kansas and Nebraska/Iowa so I don't know how much importance I am going to stake on that. I like the dry intrusion at 700mb over Kansas and the better CAPE relative to points North is making me think I will stick pretty close to home on this one. Right now I am thinking I will end in NE Ecentral Kansas where the best tornado potential would be IMO (if the NAM verifies).
 
I very much agree with Micheal...I expect to see the area shifted south. I really like the NE KS as of right now as a target area. Everything will be maximized there...except CAPE, will be further south. Also cap strength has weakened on the NAM...no longer the thermonuclear cap that it was.

I guess we will see in just a bit if SPC agrees with us and shifts the Day 2 further south... 8)
 
I'm starting to consider the zone easth of Emporia: good combination of moderate mid level flow, low level jet and higher dew points. Besides from the last ETA run there's a zone with more low level convergence just west of Emporia: however it's better to stay further est of those zones and wait.
 
Well SPC stated that they leaned towards the GFS, but they rid themselves of the 25% and the hatched area and the whole outlook is just a slight risk.

This morning's runs are going to be critical to see if they still have different solutions for the NAM/GFS. Hope the models can work out their problems...
 
I am spending the night in Springfield, MO, en route to tomorrow's chase. So far, based mainly on the NAM evening run, I am thinking about a target somewhere around Pratt, Kansas. I'm still awaiting the evening GFS, will be interesting to see how similar or different it is. Thoughts, anyone?
 
I'm thinking the same as you John. I dont think it looks nearly as good as it did on previous runs, but I already have the day off and dont really feel like wasting it away on the sofa...especially since I dont have another day off for at least a week. I'll probably just get up and check the RUC and what ever else may be ongoing...and decide finally there. I'd definetly rather be there incase something unexpected goes up...rather than just waste away in front of the computer kicking myself later.
 
Cripes, could the GFS and the NAM be any more at odds with each other? :) I didn't want to have to get up real early tomorrow, but sure enough...
 
Originally posted by Ryan McGinnis
Cripes, could the GFS and the NAM be any more at odds with each other? :) I didn't want to have to get up real early tomorrow, but sure enough...

Such is the year 2005 :wink: I cant bring myself to give up the idea of going out there. Its a huge drive to risk not seeing something...but I keep seeing myself 24 hours from now kicking myself harder than ever for wasting a day I already took off because I didnt like the models, and having something go up right where I "would have" targetted. You know how those days go..."Holy crap! Thats RIGHT where I WOULD have been!"
 
I'll post this here since it's going to be an overnight event in my home area and midnight here is fast approaching.

Tornado Watch already to our south in the MAF area with a big nasty in the NW corner of the watch headed our way. Seems that LBB NWS is a bit concerned about overnight to going be the discussion they put out about an hour ago:

BUT CHOSE TO FAVOR THE SPC SHREF MODEL WHICH
IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN CURRENT NAM RUN. HELICITY IN LOWER
LEVELS ALSO SUGGESTS UNUSUAL NIGHT-TIME TORNADO RISK. UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD THEREFORE EXPECT A WATCH OF SOME SORT TO BE ISSUED
IN COMING 2-3 HOURS. ALL PRODUCTS UPDATED.

I know we are watching it and probably will be up all night covering this event. :shock: Almost back in Lubbock now from out nice little drive to the panhandle.
 
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