06/03/05 TALK: Plains

I'm still optimistic, as dews east of the current activity in the T pan are still recovering well....and with a more northerly component to the SRM these storms look to pass well west of the SW/SC OK moisture pocket. Winds are also backing along with this area so there still appears to be a good chance at discrete storms with some tornadoes. maybe I'm wishcasting but IMO it's still on for today.
 
I'm still barely at the MO border, from driving from Detroit earlier this morning (3:00 AM EDT)... I'm very frustrated on what to do today. I guess I'll have to play southcentral KS, because I'll have no other choice. Kurt and the bunch are in SW OK, but I won't make that until afterdark, lol...
 
Far be it for me to turn away from my own backyard today... high bases would limit tornado threat for the most part, but at the same time, stranger things have happened. Again, I'm chained to work today so I won't be out, but if I were, I'd be heading to Limon right now with a close eye on the Palmer Divide.
 
After reviewing data a bit more, I think im gonna go ahead and start back to ICT. I am not totally dismissing today in NW TX/SW OK, I am however not very confident in the scenario playing out. I need to be back in ICT a decent time tonight and that is kind of playing into the decision a bit as well. If the scenario OUN HWO talks about plays out, i'll just have to bite the dust on this one.

I glanced at tomorrow, it doesn't strike me as much better, looks like E KS or bust for me tomorrow.
 
I think I'm taking PFs approach. Sitting in Colby thinking how early I can get home and be all ready for tomorrow. Tomorrow looks really interesting on the GFS. I'm trying to talk myself into playing in e CO again but it just isn't happening. It will once I am well back into NE. Now I'm sort of pissed I spent $70 on a compact flash card I won't need now. Laptop lost the program to just dl from cam to during a restore so thought I HAD to buy one for today....DOH. Good luck to those chasing today.
 
Central Saskatchewan, Canada:

Cape values over 2000 now. Nice pop up thunderheads forming and a watch has been issued east of Saskatoon. Definately looks like a good chance for a short chase this afternoon. Outlook, Watrous, and Humboldt have 15C dewpoints. Likely pretty tame storms but what the heck, I wanna see some lightning so maybe I can take a quick run towards one of these little cells....

Jared
 
Interesting situation today...pretty convoluted weather pattern now. Surface winds have been going helter-skelter due to thunderstorm outflow. Moisture, which originally wasn't supposed to be an issue, has become one. However, there are several positives that I see developing with the situation today.

First, insolation has been nearly maximized in S.W. and C. Oklahoma today. Should any decent moisture return, good instability will likely develop.

Second, a narrow tongue of higher Tds exists from S.E. Oklahoma into S.C. Oklahoma. This should advect into S.W. and C. OK, so, if things set up just right, instability will go through the roof.

The wind fields are pretty good, though not ideal. 0-1 km shear should be fantastic today, due to the intense LLJ.

Today holds a fairly conditional threat, but if those conditions are satisfied, it could get very interesting.

Gabe
 
A line of storms is forming in the mountains west of Denver and is moving northeast and figures to push into town sometime before 3pm. No severe warns yet, but would imagine one or two of these storms prompts a warning or too as they push out of the higher terrain. Wind shear near the foothills as the storms move out of the mountains may induce some rotation that may prompt tornado warnings over the Urban Corridor (not neccessarily tornadoes, mind you).

Would imagine SPC will issue a watch of some sorts in the next 30 minutes as this line continues to organize.
 
Glancing at SPC's Mesoanalysis page, it looks as if CAPE quickly disappears east of the foothills, so this line may quickly fizzle upon exiting the mountains. CAPE values of 1000 exist over a couple mountain areas and quickly fall into a more CIN enviornment. Guess we'll see shortly...
 
Just got back into Norman at 2 from spending night at Wichita.
Looking at things presently, im not impressed. I do see Gabe's narrow tongue of higher Td's from Durant to Shawnee. However that doesn't mean much if you look at the FDR radar now. I think SPC is just covering their bases w/ the watch, not saying you couldn't get a brief tornado out of that LINE.
Unless you can get a semi-discrete supercell out of that line, then im not really impressed about todays chances.
I hope someone knows something I dont. Feel free to comment.
 
Haven't seen one of these before...

Originally posted by NWS Amarillo

...COLD AIR FUNNELS POSSIBLE IN HANSFORD...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...
OCHILTREE...ROBERTS AND SHERMAN COUNTIES...

SEVERAL REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN RELAYED BY THE PUBLIC IN
THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. ONE OF THE FUNNELS MAY HAVE REACHED
THE GROUND BUT NO DAMAGE HAS BEEN REPORTED.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

THESE FUNNELS ARE CREATED FROM SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHEN AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRESENT. THEY TEND TO BE WEAK IN NATURE AND
REMAIN ALOFT...HOWEVER SHOULD ONE BE OBSERVED YOU SHOULD SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID OPEN AREAS WHERE DEBRIS COULD
BE BLOWN ABOUT SHOULD A FUNNEL TOUCH THE GROUND.
Click to expand...

I have seen cold air funnels, but never in a special weather statement for them... didn't think much of them before except to make a public annoyance! :lol:
 
Yes, right now conditions don't look very promising in the watch area. However, if you believe the Eta, and to a lesser extent, the RUC, surface winds in SW OK will back even more later this afternoon and even, and the 500 mb winds veer slightly as the trough axis moves over the region. This will increase the shear and also make the shear vector more perpendicular to the current north-south line of convection. At the same time, low-level shear increases markedly. If I had to guess, I'd say that it's quite possible that either the current line will evolve into more discrete supercell structures, or new supercells will develop later this afternoon and evening. Or, the current line could wash out everything. We will see. I can't chase until 4:30 p.m., but hopefully something interesting will be within striking distance by that time. Good luck to everyone who goes out!

Dan
 
I'm not to sure the line in the SW is going to be the only show today. For some reason, I have the thinking we could see something go up in south central OK that would be disconnected from the tail end. I would watch that area of CU that is developing south of the line across western north Texas. If things stay on track, when the low pushes in from the panhandle could see things come to life near Lawton or to the SE of there.

We are leaving Norman shortly to go down there and play on my hunch. See what happens.

EDIT: Looks like something is developing in Foard County over Crowell.
 
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