06/03/05 TALK: Plains

[Mikey Gribble]

I would imagine SPC is going to shift the threat area South. I like Ecentral Kansas to NE Kansas. I think weak shear in SE Kansas might be a problem since it is only around 30kts. The NAM isn't showing anything better than 35kts in NE Kansas and Nebraska/Iowa so I don't know how much importance I am going to stake on that. I like the dry intrusion at 700mb over Kansas and the better CAPE relative to points North is making me think I will stick pretty close to home on this one. Right now I am thinking I will end in NE Ecentral Kansas where the best tornado potential would be IMO (if the NAM verifies).

 

[Justin Walker]

I very much agree with Micheal...I expect to see the area shifted south. I really like the NE KS as of right now as a target area. Everything will be maximized there...except CAPE, will be further south. Also cap strength has weakened on the NAM...no longer the thermonuclear cap that it was.

I guess we will see in just a bit if SPC agrees with us and shifts the Day 2 further south... 8)

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm starting to consider the zone easth of Emporia: good combination of moderate mid level flow, low level jet and higher dew points. Besides from the last ETA run there's a zone with more low level convergence just west of Emporia: however it's better to stay further est of those zones and wait.

 

[Jayson Prentice]

Well SPC stated that they leaned towards the GFS, but they rid themselves of the 25% and the hatched area and the whole outlook is just a slight risk.

This morning's runs are going to be critical to see if they still have different solutions for the NAM/GFS. Hope the models can work out their problems...

 

[John Farley]

I am spending the night in Springfield, MO, en route to tomorrow's chase. So far, based mainly on the NAM evening run, I am thinking about a target somewhere around Pratt, Kansas. I'm still awaiting the evening GFS, will be interesting to see how similar or different it is. Thoughts, anyone?

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

I'm thinking the same as you John. I dont think it looks nearly as good as it did on previous runs, but I already have the day off and dont really feel like wasting it away on the sofa...especially since I dont have another day off for at least a week. I'll probably just get up and check the RUC and what ever else may be ongoing...and decide finally there. I'd definetly rather be there incase something unexpected goes up...rather than just waste away in front of the computer kicking myself later.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Cripes, could the GFS and the NAM be any more at odds with each other? I didn't want to have to get up real early tomorrow, but sure enough...

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Originally posted by Ryan McGinnis
Cripes, could the GFS and the NAM be any more at odds with each other? I didn't want to have to get up real early tomorrow, but sure enough...

Such is the year 2005 :wink: I cant bring myself to give up the idea of going out there. Its a huge drive to risk not seeing something...but I keep seeing myself 24 hours from now kicking myself harder than ever for wasting a day I already took off because I didnt like the models, and having something go up right where I "would have" targetted. You know how those days go..."Holy crap! Thats RIGHT where I WOULD have been!"

 

[David Drummond]

I'll post this here since it's going to be an overnight event in my home area and midnight here is fast approaching.

Tornado Watch already to our south in the MAF area with a big nasty in the NW corner of the watch headed our way. Seems that LBB NWS is a bit concerned about overnight to going be the discussion they put out about an hour ago:

BUT CHOSE TO FAVOR THE SPC SHREF MODEL WHICH
IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN CURRENT NAM RUN. HELICITY IN LOWER
LEVELS ALSO SUGGESTS UNUSUAL NIGHT-TIME TORNADO RISK. UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD THEREFORE EXPECT A WATCH OF SOME SORT TO BE ISSUED
IN COMING 2-3 HOURS. ALL PRODUCTS UPDATED.

I know we are watching it and probably will be up all night covering this event. :shock: Almost back in Lubbock now from out nice little drive to the panhandle.

 

[David Drummond]

And just as I posted that they dropped the tones on the new Tornado Watch for our area :shock:

 

[nickgrillo]

Not too sure where I'll go today... I'll probably head down to southcentral KS, in hopes of catching a bow or two (it'll be too late to head any further south). It doesn't look too bad...

 

[Melissa Moon]

Ugh, I don't know guys. Looking at the latest DDC sounding, there are some parameters that look great. However, there are other things that would worry me. For one thing, the upper level flow sucks (judging by looking at both the sounding and at wind profilers that have 13z winds). Things start out nice and turn westwardly,but then they begin to back south again. if you go by model runs, UL flow doesn't get much better during the day; it;'s rather weak over the Kansas area, though it could underestimate. Also, not too thrilled about having to burn off some of the cloud cover. Luckily, there seems to be some clearing in SW Kansas despite clouds wanting to move in that way. I don't know; I'm iffy about whether or not the cap will break today, and the mid to upper level flow doesn't impress me in the current obs or in the models.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

I'd probably want to be behind that wave moving towards KS. If you buy the eta it says be in the TX Panhandle.

http://www.wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_ETA_SFC_S...INDSLI_06HR.gif

http://www.wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_ETA_SFC_S...INDSLI_12HR.gif

Nice bulge.

http://www.wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_ETA_500_G...NDVORT_12HR.gif

Would be nice turning but will all this happen behind that wave I really don't know. I don't see a clear target at this point as I just ain't totally buying into the TX Panhandle setup, though I'm close.

If I was at home today that is likely where I'd stay.

 

[John Farley]

I, too, am less impressed with the setup than I was, but having already traveled some distance to position myself, I will proceed and hope for the best. I like NE OK, somewhere north or northwest of Tulsa, but will try to get position early enough to scoot north or south on I-35 if need be. Out west farther, W of OKC, might be better, but I don't want to get too far west to get back to tomorrow's potentially better setup around the NW MO area. Good luck, everyone chasing today.

 

[Philip Flory]

Good morning from DDC!

I really like the prospects of a good chase today in the E/SE TX PAN and W OK.. BUT.. Current convection taking place over the area casts severe doubt about heating/sub taking place however. Were it not for the morning convection, today has supercells/tornadoes writtin all over it. Being only a 3-4 hr drive at most, I am tempted to give today a shot despite obvious major concerns. Check out at 11, i'll post target by then (if going).