Mike Peregrine
EF5
Will go ahead and post the parameters from 0z GFS as well, since there is a glaring discrepancy between the models tomorrow - - -
0-1 km SRH - around 150 range all areas; CAPE - 1800-2000 J/kg in Nebraska, with 2800 J/kg in northeast Kansas; 0-1 EHI is around 1 all areas; LCL height - under 1000 in southern Nebraska, northeast Kansas; LFC height - around 1600
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Honestly, in looking at parameters across the board from both NAM and GFS, I'm not impressed with tomorrow yet using either model. It would be considered as a 'marginal' to 'good' day by most standards, with the possibility of isolated supercells and isolated, short-lived tornadoes - but I'll still take it. If closer runs of RUC swing closer to GFS I may be inclined to stay closer to home tomorrow - but this is yet another time I will wait and see which solution appears more stable to the SPC. Will see how it looks when I wake up.
0-1 km SRH - around 150 range all areas; CAPE - 1800-2000 J/kg in Nebraska, with 2800 J/kg in northeast Kansas; 0-1 EHI is around 1 all areas; LCL height - under 1000 in southern Nebraska, northeast Kansas; LFC height - around 1600
-------------------
Honestly, in looking at parameters across the board from both NAM and GFS, I'm not impressed with tomorrow yet using either model. It would be considered as a 'marginal' to 'good' day by most standards, with the possibility of isolated supercells and isolated, short-lived tornadoes - but I'll still take it. If closer runs of RUC swing closer to GFS I may be inclined to stay closer to home tomorrow - but this is yet another time I will wait and see which solution appears more stable to the SPC. Will see how it looks when I wake up.
