Ben Prusia
EF4
Overly, I am not too confident in this day producing, but here goes:
12Z NAM showing a dryline moving eastward into eastern Kansas and central and eastern Oklahoma by 0Z Thursday. Ahead of the dryline, there is a pocket of 65+ degree dewpoints from north central Oklahoma to south central Iowa. However, GFS model is showing more extensive 70+ degree dewpoints for areas Kansas City, southwestward. I am questioning either model on their availability of that much moisture being available. Instability will be modest, with SBCAPE values running above 2000 J/Kg. SRH will not be our best friend during the day, but 100-150 m2/s2 with some pockets of higher could make for a spinup or two. One thing that could be a killer, although, is the intense lack of shear as 850mb winds are blowing SW at 25-30 knots, while values higher at the 500mb level are blowing W at 30 knots. Looks like a marginal setup at best, with a good chance for some soaking rains and large hail, but looks like there could be a tornado if any cell got their act together. Hopefully if the GFS pans out and surface temperatures remain in the lower to mid 70's near Kansas City, we could get some surface based action up here with the forecasted lower LCL's.
Graphic for this forecast can be found on the "My Chase Forecasts" link below.
EDIT: Topic changed to include Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri.
12Z NAM showing a dryline moving eastward into eastern Kansas and central and eastern Oklahoma by 0Z Thursday. Ahead of the dryline, there is a pocket of 65+ degree dewpoints from north central Oklahoma to south central Iowa. However, GFS model is showing more extensive 70+ degree dewpoints for areas Kansas City, southwestward. I am questioning either model on their availability of that much moisture being available. Instability will be modest, with SBCAPE values running above 2000 J/Kg. SRH will not be our best friend during the day, but 100-150 m2/s2 with some pockets of higher could make for a spinup or two. One thing that could be a killer, although, is the intense lack of shear as 850mb winds are blowing SW at 25-30 knots, while values higher at the 500mb level are blowing W at 30 knots. Looks like a marginal setup at best, with a good chance for some soaking rains and large hail, but looks like there could be a tornado if any cell got their act together. Hopefully if the GFS pans out and surface temperatures remain in the lower to mid 70's near Kansas City, we could get some surface based action up here with the forecasted lower LCL's.
Graphic for this forecast can be found on the "My Chase Forecasts" link below.
EDIT: Topic changed to include Nebraska, Iowa, and Missouri.