05/17/05: TALK: Central Plains

[Brett Adair]

Looking at current analysis it seems as if the dryline is located from ITR-LHX with Td's in the lower 30's. Strong SFC winds continue out of the S-SSW AOA 20-25mph. Capping inversion still holding itself strongly over KS/NE this afternoon. I believe as mid level entrance region of the jet approaches with dryline ejection out of ERN CO we will definately get a few storms of the discrete variety. Dewpoints will likely top out AOA 60-62 through much of the region and this will be the key in keeping things more discrete especially with the strong inversion overhead. This will also keep our LCL components higher and allow for a low probability of tornadic production.

I think you will see a few hailers and some damaging winds. Tornadic potential seems quite low in that region attm. Maybe a better shot tomorrow as moisture return should yield some lower LCL/LFC heights.

 

[Douglas Mitchell]

Sitting in Russell, absolutely baffled by the RUC. If the CAP doesn't break by 5, I'm heading east for a possible play in IA tomorrow.

 

[nickgrillo]

I'm sitting in McCook and waiting for initation, and may I add I am no longer feeling confident about today. I see some CU building, but I just have a bad feeling that it will all just be linear junk...

 

[Brett Adair]

Originally posted by nickgrillo
I'm sitting in McCook and waiting for initation, and may I add I am no longer feeling confident about today. I see some CU building, but I just have a bad feeling that it will all just be linear junk...

I have a feeling you are right Nick. Looking at latest analysis, I think the greatest threat is going to be in SD/NE with some isolated storms on the onset, but as the boundary layer moistens up I believe organized LEWP's with hail/wind threat are the main threats. I think the cap is going to be a little too strong this afternoon.

 

[Douglas Mitchell]

Still in Russell, since the RUC has gone completely unreliable I'm just going to decide update by update now. Looks like I'll be drifting SW of here a bit. If the CAP breaks and stuff fires along the dryline, I think that a storm could remain discreet long enough to at least give us some nice structure.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Wx-Nerd, radar watcher,

Gr 3 is showing already 1.75 inch hail in Western Lincoln county. Isolated right now........

 

[Dick McGowan]

Heard a Tornado warning for lincoln co. nebraska. Relatively high based, showing up nice on radar though. 2.25 hail. Just as I was typing this TVS showing up on GR3.

Just northeast of Harshey. Or few miles NW of North Platte.

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Nice radar indicated rotation on the current tail-end charlie ENE of North Platte.

*edit* Well, there was, anyway. Rest of the line is starting to light up to the south.

BTW, is it just me, or did someone forget to feed the RUC its Wheaties this morning?

 

[nickgrillo]

I was on that tornadic supercell today near/in North Platte, will have a report up soon...

Anyways, I'm currently back in Hastings and I'm waiting for this POWERFUL squall line to make it's move further east towards me. It looks like this thing could pack a BIG punch!

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Originally posted by nickgrillo
I was on that tornadic supercell today near/in North Platte, will have a report up soon...

It actually produced a tornado? Haven't seen any reports yet.

 

[nickgrillo]

No... it didn't. I got on it about 5-10 minuites after it got TOR-warned, and all I got was some broad-scale rotation (including a wall cloud), and it was pretty much high-based. Not at all disapointed by today, as I got some great structure shots, and it was ALOT better then I was expecting...

 

[Stuart Robinson]

I saw the tornado and have video to prove it - just a brief spin up and funnel cloud but a tornado non the less ~ will post up an image later.

Just South of Junction 164 on I80. Five miles West of North Platte @ 16:06

 

[nickgrillo]

Intresting. We weren't far from your location, so I guess I'll have to review video...

 

[Stuart Robinson]

I dont have my firewire card with me and I shot mostly video so this image was just taken on the fly and does not really do the torn justice ~ still you get the general idea.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/stu/20050517.jpg

 

[nickgrillo]

That could definitely be a tornado, although it is quite hard to tell as that capture is low quality...