05/06/05 TALK: KS/NE/CO

[Verne Carlson]

In Limon, CO at the Best Western - dropping south on 71 to intercept the cells coming off the front range. Winds are pretty stiff out of the south here now.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Bases probably too high in NE Colorado to keep the 5% going up here... low levels too dry (mid 30s to mid 40s)... extreme SE Colorado reporting 50s TDs, so much wetter down there... still think rotating storms with hail possible; downdrafts also possible with evaporating as the precip falls into drier air.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Storm east of Pueblo is looking very nice, but moving into drier air as it moves north/northeast... Verne oughta be able to easily intercept this storm...

The storm near Trinidad is in better moisture at the moment, but it, too, is moving into drier air... think that stands the better chance at the moment... Amos is probably sitting beneath that one right now...

 

[Tony Laubach]

Dry air very apparent over KDEN right now with high based storms moving off foothills over the Metro area with a lot of virga and gusty winds at the surface...

 

[Glen Romine]

How about the cell northest of Sheridan Lake? Sitting on the western edge of the better moisture (upper 50's just to the south at Grenada). I'd be very interested in that cell for having some tornadic potential - at least the cloud base is more reasonable. Should cross the state line in the next hour. Just not real confident cells to the west will do much more than hail. Cell ne of Trinidad has maintained itself for some time, but will do well to tap mid 50 dews over the next few hours given the slow motion.

Glen

 

[Tony Laubach]

Blue box over the northern areas of this discussion, including Eastern Colorado/Northwestern Kansas/Southwestern Nebraska. A severe warned cell in NW Kansas is a tiny lil' booger, but obviously a sign that things are starting to go. Some cells in far Eastern Colo have also began to form near Wray. Further west, convection in the mountains is beginning to become more numerous, although not very strong at all. DIA's dewpoint was in the mid 30s which will all but kill off surface based storms anywhere NEAR the front range.

Meanwhile down south, that storm east of Pueblo continues to pluck along; still no warning as of this writing. The Trinidad storm looks alright, but appears to be weakening (hard to say at the radar distance).

I'm not thrilled with tornado prospects anywhere along the line from TX northward into NE... I imagine up north will see multi-cell clusters form quickly... down south, no tornadoes, but I imagine some BEAUTIFUL LPs will pass over the Southeastern Colorado Plains...

 

[B Ozanne]

I'm liking my spot at the Days Inn in Guymon, OK right now. We weren't planning on seeing much today, but I like the chances of cells going up soon over NM and moving this way.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Storm between Boulder and Greeley looking might mean... wouldn't be surprised to see that warned if it holds together.. outflow from Metro area storms seems to be interacting with this cell as it moves to the north...

 

[Glen Romine]

Yes, that cell looking ok, and has a svr issued for it, but the nearly north movement keeps the updraft sucking over the storm's own exhaust, which can't be helping too much until the cell gets a more easterly motion to it. That said, I see a mesocyclone algorithm just tripped - so maybe I'm being too harsh on it. it To the southwest of it another cell near Eads split a while back, and the right mover doesn't look like much on radar, but shows weak broad rotation.

Of course, it seems the "real" action is elsewhere today, lol.... http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KMKX/0505062131.wfus53.html

Glen

 

[nickgrillo]

Wow, maybe SW Kansas will have a shot at some storms tonight (west of DDC), with some of them being able to remain severe. Maybe we'll go out a little later for some shots... But we won't stray far from the hotel. Storms shouldn't arrive in SW Kansas til near dark, thou...

By the way, these outflow boundaries are gonna be great for tomorrow's convection...

 

[Tony Laubach]

That storm hugging the KS/CO border continues to look good on radar! Progged to hit I-70 in the next 30 minutes with probably some good sized hail and heavy rain. Very nice radar signature to it! New severe warnings out on it as it crosses the county lines.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Storm attributes on GR level 3 indicating 2.25" hail.....with storm hugging co/ks border also nice rotation....intensifying quickly....

 

[nickgrillo]

I'm liking that one supercell that you're talking about...

There are two supercells ongoing right now, one of them is SW of Imperial, KS and the other one is just S of Burlington, CO (both of them continue to strengthen)...

 

[Dick McGowan]

any chasers on these storms????? does anyone know?

 

[B Ozanne]

I think you mean Imperial, NE