03/30/06 NOW: NE, KS, OK, TX

[Shane Adams]

I'm doing the same as Nick, just watching from OUN. The 500 max is clearly evident approaching on the Tucumcari and Vici profilers. The Haviland, KS profiler is showing strongly veered flow at 500 to the NNE, which isn't good for hodographs in eastern Kansas. Today looks like a toss up between rocket storms and a subsidence bust. Go north for a sure thing storm-wise but good luck catching them, or stick south where storms will be slightly more chaseable but will there be enough DL convergence/upper support to get them going? I've seen this act before a few times in 2006. Maybe it's a geograpgical bias, but something is telling me not to ignore SC OK today. I'd rather miss rocket tornadoes up north than miss a 40mph eastward moving fattie down here.

 

[Todd Rasmuson]

jason,
yeah you got stuff trying to fire back to your wsw over around vernon, been watchin the last
couple scans and a cell is going up rightnow over southern jackson county another one in
nw tx just nw of vernon...

 

[Todd Rasmuson]

just talked to a friend at spc ... New Watch to be issued for South Central/SW And Central Oklahoma very soon within the half hour to an hour... likely will be a pds also...

 

[Sam Sagnella]

that doesn't surprise me much at all -- the sun has just started breaking throught the clouds here in Norman and since the 12z sounding already had 1800 J/Kg of CAPE, this is shaping up to be a volatile day.

 

[Brett Adair]

just talked to a friend at spc ... New Watch to be issued for South Central/SW And Central Oklahoma very soon within the half hour to an hour... likely will be a pds also...
[/b]

I'm not totally sure about that call, if it comes to reality. Looks to me like more linear action is probable along the dryline. Also, I am concerned about the backed winds just as Nic. I really hate to see that MCS forming NE of ICT. Deep cells are firing due west/southwest of Wichita now. I think that these few storms are the ones that could go supercellular and develop tornadoes within the next hour or two.

 

[Todd Rasmuson]

SPC JUST ISSUED STRONG STATEMENT "EXPECTING STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS
CENTRAL / WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEXT FEW HOURS" also.. the line is starting to
break up live on radar... i've seen this line trying to start to break apart.. so guys
yes it might be early in the season but this is one of those days you reserve that big
word "OUTBREAK" for... i feel very strongly its gonna happen esp when these get just
east of i-44 between 44 and i-35... watch will be posted soon

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

I'm sitting at a reststop about halfway between Lincoln and York. The cloud deck here has been starting to erode a bit. It looks almost solidly overcast, but I can see blue here and here and the sunlight heeps poking in and out. May go a bit further south and west of here... gonna do another data check. Still kinda oscillating between looking at the dryline and looking at being ahead of the low.

 

[Eugene Thieszen]

The stuff on the dry line just moved through here at Cordell. Brief heavy rain and small hail--pea to marble size. I went up to look at a cell in northern Was$$$a County near Bessie about an hour ago. The linear stuff south of it went up very fast!

Gene

 

[Jeff Snyder]

SPC JUST ISSUED STRONG STATEMENT "EXPECTING STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS
CENTRAL / WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEXT FEW HOURS" also.. the line is starting to
break up live on radar... i've seen this line trying to start to break apart.. so guys
yes it might be early in the season but this is one of those days you reserve that big
word "OUTBREAK" for... i feel very strongly its gonna happen esp when these get just
east of i-44 between 44 and i-35... watch will be posted soon [/b]

Todd,

What products says that they are "EXPECTING STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL / WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEXT FEW HOURS"? The MCD for the area does not contain that text (does not mention that they "expect strong tornadoes" there).

 

[David Drummond]

Sitting here in El Reno keeping an eye on radar at this stuff to the west. Surface winds are strong here, and the low clouds overhead are SCREAMING NNE.

 

[HAltschule]

Supercell East of Arapahoe, OK has promise. Looks to be developing into a storm that could hook. That would be the sucker I'd follow right now.

 

[Todd Rasmuson]

i didnt see it in a product what i been looking for, koco tv reported it about 20 mins
ago, was stating that the spc has said the expected strong tornadoes across central
west central ok later on... iam not sure why its not a pds?

OK IT IS A PDS WATCH... ITS OUT ON THE WEBSITE NOW

 

[J.B. Dixon]

Peaks of sun are now coming through in LNK. 67/61 right now, and the Low is strattling the NE/KS border. A little more clearing, and I'm guessing by 19-20z the Warm front and boundary intersection will be active. Convection active right now W of Hastings. My Noontime presentation can't get over soon enough!!! Planning on heading S and W of LNK. Who knows, play with the warm front action, and maybe have a chance to drop SE and play the dryline?? I'll take it!

 

[Bill Tabor]

I saw cell Q3 in northeast OK at 89 mph a minute ago. Now showing 83!!! :lol:

 

[Kevin Polston]

12Z NAM (ETA) suggesting to me by late afternoon the area from ADM to MLC to be a particularly good area for tornadic storms. 1km EHI of 3 colocated with .5 VGP and 1km SRH of 150-250 m2/s2; just east of the dryline; tail end of strong shortwave trough impacting area and moderate instability and low to mid 60 dewpoints suggests this to be the area to focus on later this afternoon. In the short term....I think from now and for the next few hours the area in northern KS and southern NE should be the best just ahead of the surface low. By mid-afternoon though I think this area will begin to congeal and the tornadic area will shift down into the OK area I mentioned earlier.